U.S. Open picks 2022: Our 9 favorite prop bets we're making at The Country Club
BROOKLINE, Mass. — It’s Wednesday, so we’re at the point of the week where you’re finalizing your bets and pool entries. Before you spend all the money in your sportsbook account, we have more bets for you to consider.
We’re both on-site at The Country Club and have walked the course—putting in the legwork required to be confident in some of these below wagers. Where we netted out was: The rough isn’t as thick as we initially thought. And some of these approach shots are going to be really tough. Off-the-tee game, like it has proven to recently, will be huge important—but elite iron players should also rule the day.
With those things in mind, we got back to the media center, fired up our sportsbook accounts and spent some more of our hard-earned money. That part isn’t “work” … we don’t get reimbursed for our gambling losses just yet…
Keegan Bradley, Top-40 finish (-115, DraftKings)
Hand up, I’m drinking the Keegan Kool-Aid this week. The Vermont native is always plenty jacked up to play golf, but he’s extra-jacked up this week in Boston, home of his Celtics, who will look to avoid elimination on Thursday night in the NBA Finals, and his Red Sox, who won at Fenway Tuesday night after Bradley threw out the first pitch. The vibes are simply immaculate right now for Keegs. As for his actual golf, that’s been pretty immaculate in 2022, too. He has top-11 finishes in four of his last seven starts, including a runner-up at Wells Fargo, a fifth at the Players and 11th at Bay Hill, setups where par was a great score just like it will be this week. His putter has actually been surprisingly good over this stretch as well. If he pairs that up with his usual elite tee-to-green play then a top 40 isn’t too much to ask. –Christopher Powers, staff writer
Mito Pereira, Top-40 finish (-115, FanDuel)
Only two players can boast that they’re top 20 in SG/approach, SG/off the tee and SG/around the green over the past 24 rounds: Jordan Spieth and Mito Pereira (stat per Fantasy National). Mito’s game is major ready, as proven by Southern Hills, and at nearly even odds, I like this bet a lot. –Stephen Hennessey, dep. managing editor
Keegan Bradley, top-10 after Round 1 (+700, DraftKings)
This is a very pro Keegan Bradley post. Not so much because of the Boston vibes like CP mentioned … but more so because he’s an elite driver of the ball who just played great at TPC Potomac, which I think is somewhat of a decent comp … a course with heavy rough and difficult scoring. Keegan plays in the more favorable morning wave, and he also tends to start off hot at a typical event, making me like this. –SH
Corey Conners, Top-20 finish (+200, Bet365)
The Canadian has been a friend to the gambling community for quite some time now thanks to his all-around game, which should translate to success in U.S. Opens. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case, as Conners has yet to make the cut in this event in his career. That changes this week at Brookline, which will require, above all, great off-the-tee play. Few guys are better in that area than Conners, who has gained strokes off the tee in 30 (!!) consecutive measured starts dating back to the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational, per Fantasy National. The irons have started cooking again too (Conners gained 8.1 approach at Memorial and 5.7 in Canada), and as a result he has back-to-back top-13 finishes. It’s all coming together for a Conners coronation, but top 20 is all we need to cash this ticket. –CP
Thursday 3-balls (then roll it back for Friday): Taylor Montgomery (+110) over Jediah Morgan and Sean Crocker (Bet365)
This is one we’re doubtful you’ll find anywhere else. Actually, we owe credit to our friend “The Undefined Mystic” on Twitter, who pointed this one out to us. Jediah Morgan is a middling pro on the PGA Tour of Australasia, who has missed the cut in five of his past 10 starts. Sean Crocker is a rank-and-file DP World Tour pro not in great form. Taylor Montgomery, on the other hand, has five top-10s in 12 starts on the Korn Ferry Tour this season, regularly contending. His power advantage over these two should give him a distinct advantage. –SH
Tommy Fleetwood, First-round leader (60-1, FanDuel)
Admittedly more of a gut feeling bet than one with much statistical backing. Fleetwood’s first-round numbers this season are tour average at best, but strong showings at the PGA Championship (fifth-place) and the Masters (14th) indicate that majors are the weeks the Englishman gets up for. In order to win one, though, he needs to get off to a better start. That might only mean two or three under at a course as tough as Brookline, which should be enough to at least have a little Thursday evening sweat for FRL. –CP
Sepp Straka, First-round leader (140-1, FanDuel)
The big-hitting Austrian is known for getting off to hot starts. He’s also in the early morning wave, which should be an advantage. This is a setup that should suit Straka—like a similarly set up Pebble Beach did in 2019, where Straka was in the top 10 after Day 1. Now he’s a PGA Tour winner, and so I expect him to be near the top to start the round. At these odds, it’s a nice play. –SH
Golfer parlay: Xander Schauffele top 5, Tony Finau top 10 and Billy Horschel top 20 (+5000, DraftKings)
These promo boost type of bets are sucker plays. But I compared the odds to a competitor, and you’d get about 40-1 on this bet … so you’re actually getting a strong boost … and I think it actually has a decent chance of hitting. I like all these guys to play well, and you just need a bit of luck to have Xander finish near the top. It’s worth a bit of a sprinkle, I’d say. –SH
Winner to come from the final pairing: NO (+165, DraftKings)
Just a fun prop to make Sunday a little more interesting for when all your outrights are inevitably dead. From what I’ve seen of The Country Club so far, I expect plenty of carnage and plenty of nerves and plenty of choking in the final round. Too much can go wrong on this course to think the two leaders will have an easy walk to the clubhouse Sunday afternoon, unless of course somebody is up by seven strokes, Martin Kaymer-style. I highly doubt that happens, which means, just like last year, anybody in the final four or five groups will have a chance to steal it. –CP
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