PGA Championship

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Betting Analysis

British Open 2021: A Brooks Koepka lock, our favorite Italian and four other props we like at The Open


Andrew Redington

At this point in the week, you've seen and heard it all when it comes to gambling on The Open Championship. A case has been made for literally every player not named Nicholas Poppleton or Douglas Bubbletrousers (can you guess which one of those names is actually real? Probably not). No one is flying "under the radar" any more. No pick is unique.

That said, you can separate yourself a bit in the prop-betting market, where the possibilties are endless, as always. Since bettors can see through all this nonsensical preamble-ing, let's just dive right in now. Here are our six favorite prop bets for the Open at Royal St George's. 

Brooks Koepka, top-20 finish (-130, FanDuel)

The favorite to win The Open, Jon Rahm, is -220 to finish in the top 20. To me, Brooksy should be the same price, and possibly even lower, like -300 lower. In his last 22 major starts, Koepka has finished inside the top 20 in EIGHTEEN of them. He's also top-10'd in 14 of his last 21. It's no secret he gets up for these weeks, but the results are still astounding. For me, -130 seems like stealing here. We know he's going to be contention, so as long as he doesn't throw up a Sunday 78 this might be the safest bet you can make. -- Christopher Powers

Xander Schauffele, top-20 finish (+100, FanDuel)

Xander has a great chance to win this week, but even if he doesn't, it’s a virtual certainty he will contend. Even if he gets unlucky with the draw, this bet on plus-money seems like a no-brainer. -- Stephen Hennessey

Collin Morikawa to miss the cut (+350, DraftKings)

Hate to roll out a negative bet when we need all the positive vibes we can get, but our own Daniel Rapaport did some fine reporting on Collin Morikawa not being in love with the firm turf across the pond on Tuesday:

This is the type of info us bettors yearn for week in, week out, and we rarely get it. Dan is now handing it to us on a silver platter, and we'd all be fools not to try and capitalize on it. Could Morikawa win this week? Of course; he lead the tour in SG/approach and has already proven to be a stone-cold killer. But between his admission he's struggling with the grass, the fact you may need to scramble well to win this week (not his strong suit) and the fact it's his Open debut, this +350 number on him to miss the weekend is absolutely worth a flyer. The best part? If he makes the cut and it loses, we all blame Dan. -- CP


Michael Reaves

Guido Migliozzi to be the top-Italian finisher (-110, DraftKings)

How could an article written by two Italian American kids from New Jersey not take a guy named Guido? (Editor's note: I, Christopher Powers, am not even 0.0000001-percent Italian. Not sure where Steve got that from but let's roll with it). The 24-year-old got on the radar of most Americans with his T-4 at the U.S. Open, but avid fans have watched him play consistently all season in Europe. (Shoutout to our guy Skylar Hoke, @SkyHookDFS, for being one of the first on him.) Francesco Molinari has not been consistent this year—to me there’s value in this line. -- SH

Rickie Fowler, top-40 finish (+115, FanDuel)

Slick Rick contended here in 2011 and has a fabulous Open Championship record overall, having missed only one cut in 10 appearances and finishing inside the top 40 eight times. He's been slowly rounding back into form of late, too, with three top 20s in his last seven starts. A major victory continues to elude him, but he still shows up for these weeks, as his T-8 outta nowhere at Kiawah proved. Plus money on him to top 40 in a major is not something I'm prepared to pass up. -- CP

Branden Grace to be the first-round leader (65-1, DraftKings)

The South African might be one of the most underrated links players in this field. That third-round 62 at Birkdale was one of the best major rounds that doesn’t get talked about. He’s coming in with great form—I think Grace has a great chance this week and I like him to start off hot here. --SH