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World Wide Technology Championship picks 2022: Morikawa or Finau? Our experts are torn

November 02, 2022
RIDGELAND, SOUTH CAROLINA - OCTOBER 21: Collin Morikawa of the United States reacts to a putt on the sixth hole during the second round of the CJ Cup at Congaree Golf Club on October 21, 2022 in Ridgeland, South Carolina. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images for The CJ Cup)

The PGA Tour's Fall Swing continues this week in Mexico, where the now former World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is back in action and back in his rightful spot as the solo favorite. Our experts, as always, are in search of a little more value down the odds board, however.

The next biggest story to watch is Viktor Hovland's quest for a three-peat in this event, something that has not been done on the PGA Tour since Steve Stricker won three consecutive John Deere Classics between 2009 and 2011. Per stats guru Justin Ray, only two other players have pulled off the rare accomplishment in the past 40 years on tour. You probably guessed that one of them was Tiger Woods, who did it an absurd six separate times, including two four-peats. The other was Stuart Appleby, who won the Sentry Tournament of Champions in 2004, 2005 and 2006. Rare company, to say the least.

Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2022 Worldwide Technology Championship.

Worldwide Technology Championship picks 2022: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions

Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Collin Morikawa (18-1, DraftKings) — The results may not reflect it, but he seems to be rounding back into form. The only thing that’s held him back is the flat stick, which we’ve seen him flip on a dime and win tournaments before.

Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Collin Morikawa (18-1, DraftKings) — The results haven’t been close to elite in the swing season, but that’s all 100 percent putting related. He’s lost a combined 12.9 strokes/putting over his past two weight starts. NOT GREAT, BOB!!!! The ball striking? Immaculate; inching back to peak levels. If he can just make a few putts, which is conceivable on the slow, paspalum greens, his irons and accuracy should have him hoisting a novelty check.

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Collin Morikawa (16-1, FanDuel) — El Camaleon should suit Morikawa very well. He’s top 10 in driving accuracy over the past year, according to datagolf, and he’s second in SG/approach in that span, as well. The uncommon paspalum greens could level the playing field for him as a putter, and that could boost him up big time.

Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Tony Finau (18-1, BetMGM) — Finau has yet to make his 2023 season debut, but don’t allow yourself to forget how he finished last season. His last four starts, not including the staggered-start Tour Championship, resulted in two wins and a T-5. From tee-to-green he’s elite and now he’s making massive gains with his putter. He’s gained 17.03 strokes putting over his last six measured starts, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. Everything is in place for Finau to have a massive season, starting right now.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Tony Finau (18-1, BetMGM) — Nobody has been better over the past 24 rounds than Finau, who’s third in SG/approach, sixth in SG/off the tee and 12th in putting. Yes, he’s first in SG/total. The guy has kept the hot streak going in casual rounds, as our guy Doug Smith can attest to, and so I think this is the perfect, low-key field for Finau to add yet another W.

Christopher Powers, Golf Digest assistant editor: Tom Hoge (30-1, DraftKings) — Hoge is absolutely tearing it up this Fall, finishing T-13 or better in all four starts he’s made. He’s also got decent history at Mayakoba, having finished T-3 here two years ago.

Lee Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Brendon Todd (45-1, DraftKings) — Todd is a past winner here at Mayakoba and also has a further eighth-place and 11th-place finish to his name here. It’s not surprising then to see that he ranks fourth in the FanShareSports Course Suitability Ranking this week. Todd also comes into the event ranked 12th for Opportunities Gained over the last two months and 20th for SG/total over the last two months. This run of good form has resulted in two top-10 PGA Tour finishes in his last four events.

Past results: Golf Digest's betting panel caught fire at the end of the summer, correctly predicting the winner in five of the final six events of the season. We picked our first winner of the new season at the CJ Cup, with Lee Alldrick correctly predicting Rory McIlroy’s victory at Congaree at 7-1. There’s plenty more where that came from.

Worldwide Technology Championship picks 2022: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win

Caddie: Jason Day (45-1, DraftKings) — There’s something quietly brewing right now with the former World No. 1, who has gone eighth-11th in his last two starts, seemingly out of nowhere. If you’re look for win equity in the 40-1+ range, look no further than J-Day.

Mayo: Matt Kuchar (50-1, DraftKings) — BACK to the scene of the crime from Kuch. Hopefully he can ride his sterling swing-season form, pick up another win and make things right with El Tucan.

Gdula: Matt Kuchar (60-1, FanDuel) — Kuchar has flashed upside in reasonable spots over the past year, and he now heads to a course that can reward him for being accurate off the tee and not penalize him too much for being a shorter hitter. Kuchar has also gained strokes in all three tee-to-green stats in both starts this season but has uncharacteristically lost strokes putting. The odds are a bit too long as a result.

Gehman: Zecheng Dou (180-1, DraftKings) — Dou just posted his best finish of the season, a T-17 in Bermuda last week. That’s his second top-25 finish in his first four starts during this campaign. He finished his Korn Ferry Tour season with a win, a third and T-10 all within his last seven starts. His game can clearly travel and his upside is immense.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Thomas Detry (40-1, DraftKings) — I’m surprised we’re still getting 40-1 on Detry after his run of really good golf. Though he was never really at the top on Sunday with a chance to win, he played great in the runner-up finish … and that should translate to another chance to win here.

Powers, Golf Digest: Austin Smotherman (200-1, BetMGM) — Short knockers who can pure their irons usually fare well here, and that’s exactly what Smotherman is. The only thing worrisome about this play is he hasn’t truly contended on the PGA Tour yet, even last week after he grabbed a share of the first round lead. But he’s certainly gaining on it, with three top-25 finishes in his last seven starts on tour.

Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Thomas Detry (40-1, DraftKings) — Detry will be coming into this event brimming with confidence after his runner-up finish last week. The second-place finish is the European’s fourth top-12 in his last six events. He played here last year and posted a very impressive 22nd-place finish on his first attempt here at El Camaleon.

Worldwide Technology Championship picks 2022: Players We’re Fading

Caddie: Scottie Scheffler (9-1, DraftKings) — I do worry about him coming in highly motivated after losing the No. 1 ranking to Rory McIlroy, but he has not really been himself since Sunday at East Lake. That will undoubtedly change soon, but I’m not ready to bet on it at single-digit odds.

Mayo: Maverick McNealy (18-1, DraftKings) — Mav has a good chance to win, but I cannot in good conscience bet him when he’s the same price as Morikawa.

Gdula: Maverick McNealy (26-1, FanDuel) — I can’t suggest fading anyone at 18-1 or shorter. I think they’re all viable plays, but the rest of the field is justifiably a tier behind them. McNealy’s longer than he is accurate, and the irons aren’t particularly great. He’s getting by with the putter, and that’s likely not enough this week against a top-heavy field.

Gehman: Brian Harman (35-1, DraftKings) — Harman is one of the most fascinating players in this field. He’s playing well, with three straight top-25 finishes while peppering in three top-10 finishes within his last nine starts. On paper, El Camaleon should be an excellent course for him … except it’s been horrible there. His best finish over nine starts is a T-26 and he’s the only golfer in the field who has played at least 30 rounds here and is losing strokes to the field.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Russell Henley (33-1, BetRivers) — His four most recent results include two MCs and a 35th- and 45th-place finish. I’m not really understanding why Henley’s priced up here just below the elites.

Powers, Golf Digest: Maverick McNealy (18-1, DraftKings) — McNealy is on a streak of three consecutive top-20 finishes, but it’s all thanks to a scorching hot putter. His iron play has been downright putrid, and I’m not sure he can sustain gaining six strokes on the greens like he has the last two starts.

Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Scottie Scheffler (9-1, DraftKings) — This price is too low for someone who has played just one event in the last nine weeks. Scheffler will be rusty coming in and only finished 45th in the one event he has played in the last nine weeks.

Worldwide Technology Championship picks 2022: Matchups

Caddie: Brendon Todd (+100) over Seamus Power (Bet365) — Todd, a former winner here, has been playing some spectacular golf this Fall. Recent form, plus some strong vibes at El Camaleon, have me leaning with him over the Bermuda champ.

Mayo: Adam Long (-110) over J.J. Spaun (DraftKings) — Long hasn’t had much juice recently but he is the prototype for a solid result at Mayakoba. One of the most accurate players in the field and always seems to make the putts he should. That’s the recipe for his two top 10s and no finish worse than 22nd in three starts.

Gdula: Tony Finau (-118) over Aaron Wise (FanDuel) — Finau is – by far – the best in the field over the past 20 rounds, and even using past-year data with recency adjustments, my head-to-head model thinks Finau should be around -135 in this matchup over Wise.

Gehman: Jason Day (-120) over K.H. Lee (DraftKings) — There are exciting things happening with Day’s game right now, primarily his significant improvement on approach shots. He’s gained strokes on approach in seven straight starts, something he hasn’t done since the fall of 2017 when he was ranked inside the top 10 in the world. His last two starts have resulted in a T-11 and T-8, so clearly something is brewing for Day right now.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Aaron Rai (-125) over Justin Lower (Bet365) — Lower has had a solid start to the fall, but Rai is more proven long-term and over the past 24 rounds has better strokes gained/off the tee and approach numbers than Lower. I like the consistency of Rai here in a matchup as a slight favorite.

Powers, Golf Digest: Thomas Detry (-110) over Seamus Power (DraftKings) — Not sure going against last week’s winner in a matchup has ever worked out in my favor, but I feel good about this one. Detry certainly seems to be building toward something big.

Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Viktor Hovland (+100) over Scottie Scheffler (Bet365) — As you can see above I don’t fancy Scheffler’s chances this week. Hovland on the other hand comes into this event looking to complete the hat trick of wins here in the space of three years. His form is great, ranking second in the field for SG/total over the last two years and 11th for SG/total over the last two months.

Matchup Results from the Bermuda Championship: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Rodgers (-125) over S.H. Kim); Powers: 1 for 1 (Detry (+110) over McCarthy); Alldrick: 1 for 1 (Detry (-125) over Meronk; Mayo: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1; Gehman: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1

Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Hennessey: 5-1-0 (up 3.8 units); Gehman: 4-2-0 (up 1.65 units); Caddie: 3-3-0 (down 0.1 units); Alldrick: 4-2-0 (up 1.38 units); Powers: 2-4-0 (down 1.85 units); Mayo: 1-4-0 (down 3.1 units); Gdula: 0-5-1 (down 5 units)

Worldwide Technology Championship picks 2022: Top 10s

Caddie: Aaron Wise (+220, Bet365) — Wise has gone 10th, MC, second and 15th in his last four trips to Mayakoba, and he’s coming off his third top-15 finish in his last four starts.

Mayo: Emiliano Grillo (+270, DraftKings) — The CJ Cup wasn’t kind to Grillo, but now he’s back at a happy place. Accuracy and irons can most definitely prevail at Mayakoba as long as you make a few putts, and Grillo has actually gained with the putter in eight of his past nine starts; good for five top 10s over that stretch.

Gdula: Russell Henley (+410, FanDuel) — Henley’s profile is a lot like Morikawa’s: hyper-accurate, elite irons, bad putting. Henley has an 18 percent top-10 rate over the past year, and only the putting is really holding him back from success this week.

Gehman: Brendon Todd (+500, Bet365) — Todd has found magic with his irons twice already during this season. He gained 5.43 strokes on approach at the Fortinet Championship and again 7.03 at the CJ Cup. Both of those weeks ended in a top 10 for Todd. He’s gained strokes with his putter in 12 straight starts so if he can strike it well again, he’ll be in line for a great finish.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Kevin Streelman (+900, Bet365) — The off-the-tee and approach numbers are top 15 in this field over the past 24 rounds, per Fantasy National, so Streelman should give himself plenty of chances. It’s the type of course the ultra-accurate Streelman could still contend, and though he’s only played this event once since 2009, he does boast a top-three to his name a long time ago.

Powers, Golf Digest: Davis Riley (+650, DraftKings) — Riley has fallen out of favor with the gambling community of late thanks to some so-so results, but his irons have still been cooking. If he can just stop losing a billion strokes off the tee each week, he’ll become a popular play again.

Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Russell Knox (+750, DraftKings) — Knox comes into this event ranked 18th in the FanShareSports Course Suitability Ranking this week so it’s not surprising to see that he already has three top-10 finishes to his name here at El Camaleon. The Scotsman ranks seventh in the field this week for Opportunities Gained over the last two months and this is the exact style of course where Knox can start taking these opportunities.

Top-10 results from the Bermuda Championship: Gehman: 1 for 1 (Thomas Detry +225); Everybody else: 0 for 1

Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 1 for 6 (up 2 units); Mayo: 1 for 5 (up 0 units); Gdula: 1 for 6 (down 0.1 units); Caddie: 1 for 6 (down 0.5 units); Alldrick: 1 for 6 (down 1 unit); Gehman: 1 for 6 (down 2.75 units); Powers: 0 for 6 (down 6 units)

Worldwide Technology Championship picks 2022: One and Done

Gehman: Viktor Hovland — Hovland heads back to Mayakoba, looking to win this event for the third consecutive year. His game looks close, finishing T-5 at the Zozo Championship and T-21 at the CJ Cup in his only two PGA Tour starts this season. His short game has been tidy, gaining strokes around-the-green in five of his last seven starts while gaining strokes with his putter in seven straight.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo. Sanderson Farms Championship: Sam Burns. Shriners: Taylor Montgomery. Zozo: Sungjae Im. CJ Cup: Matt Fitzpatrick. Bermuda: Denny McCarthy.

Hennessey: Viktor Hovland — An easy case to make to roll with the two-time defending champ.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Cam Davis. Sanderson Farms Championship: Denny McCarthy. Shriners: Emiliano Grillo. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Sungjae Im. Bermuda: Mark Hubbard.

Powers: Thomas Detry — Might as well attempt to cash in on this hot streak while it’s happening. Six straight made cuts for the Belgian, including four finishes of 12th or better.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Sahith Theegala. Sanderson Farms Championship: J.T. Poston. Shriners: Sungjae Im. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Tyrrell Hatton. Bermuda: Russell Knox.

About our experts

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long- and short-form content, owner of the Mayo Media Network and host of The Pat Mayo Experience. (Subscribe for video or audio.) Mayo (@ThePME) was named 2021 Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writing Association, while also being a finalist for Podcast of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year. Mayo won the 2020 FSWA Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award in 2020. He was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). Mayo is on the board of governors at www.fantasynational.com.

Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast.

Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.

Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports started out writing an article highlighting the best bargain plays for fantasy golf under his twitter handle @DKGolfBargains. His success at this prompted FanShare Sports to enlist him as a guest writer, which evolved into him writing the weekly Under The Radar article. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldrick’s insight into European Tour regulars and low priced, low owned plays has provided an invaluable edge for readers when it comes to DFS GPPs.