The Loop
NFL Draft 2020: Our 15 favorite prop bets with EXTREME value for this year's virtual draft
Rejoice, sports fans: We have some legitimate major sports activity to pay attention to this week. And double rejoice, gamblers: There are hundreds, if not thousands, of prop bets to pique your interest. The 2020 NFL Draft will be an odd, unique occasion, with team executives attending virtually to submit their draft picks to commissioner Roger Goodell, who will be in his Westchester County, N.Y. home. If he had any sense of humor, Goodell would play a recording of the boos that usually accompany his presence during this at-home edition of the selection process.
The Loop has asked its resident degenerates Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers to take a break from their research on Belarusian soccer and Russian ping-pong to study up on the 2020 NFL Draft to provide some "expert" analysis. We heard Hennessey has read every mock draft on the internet in the past month (true story). We're both saddened and impressed, but the result of that exhaustive research is this attempt to help you make money in this NFL Draft unlike any other.
Jordan Love to the Raiders (9-1, DraftKings).
We're coming in HOT with our first pick. Hear us out: The Raiders are not totally sold on Derek Carr as their quarterback of the future (a difference from two years ago, when he still was). With the team's scheduled move to Las Vegas, we're confident it will want to make a big splash. The Raiders have two first-rounders (Nos. 12 and 19), and projections point to filling another need (wide receiver, hogmolly or defense) at No. 12. But at No. 19, if they can't score a trade to move up for Tua or Herbert, we could see them reaching for Jordan Love. And boy, 9-1 odds are too enticing not to take a taste. --Stephen Hennessey
Total Alabama Players to be Drafted in the First Round: Under 5.5 (-143, DraftKings).
Bama has never had more than four players go in the opening round, but there’s a strong chance that the school breaks that record this year if safety Xavier McKinney gets taken mid-to-late first like projected. But after that, unless a team reaches for cornerback Trevon Diggs, this under is hitting. --Christopher Powers
Derrick Brown to the Carolina Panthers (+250, DraftKings).
Like the intro said, I've been scouring mock drafts for the past two weeks. And in the dozens if not hundreds of mocks I've seen, almost 75 percent of them have Brown going to the Panthers. If Isaiah Simmons or Jeff Okudah drops to the Panthers at pick No. 7, this bet could lose. Otherwise, we see Carolina addressing a major need and taking the talented D-lineman from Auburn. --SH
Jeff Gladney (-115) over Jaylon Johnson (BetMGM).
Going with the TCU cornerback over the Utah CB here. Johnson pops in the first round in some mock drafts we've seen, but Gladney is consistently a higher-ranked prospect on most expert sites. There might not be too much value here, but we're playing the projections here. --SH
Over/Under when Yetur Gross-Matos gets drafted: Over 26.5 (-120, William Hill).
Most of the mock drafts I've seen have the Penn State edge rusher going high in the second round. Some have him going later in the first round, but there are only a few mocking Gross-Matos being picked prior to the 27 spot. Gross-Matos is kind of similar to Jason Pierre-Paul to me: A raw talent with solid upside (and a hyphenated last name), but he lacks some of the dynamic skills for a team to go too high on him. Example: He had zero pass breakups in college, a pretty staggering deficiency. And he was suspended for the entire summer of 2019 for breaking team rules, so teams could see that maturity level being a red flag. --SH
Over/Under when Jerry Jeudy gets drafted: Under 12.5 (-143, DraftKings).
Reports are that the Denver Broncos want to trade up with the Arizona Cardinals to select Jeudy at eight, which would give second-year QB Drew Lock a No. 1 target. Cardinals have plenty of needs, so this scenario seems likely. If it doesn’t happen, it’s going to be hard for the New York Jets to stay away from Jeudy at 11. --CP
Jerry Jeudy to the Denver Broncos. (+700, William Hill).
If those reports are true, might as well throw a small taste on this. John Elway is going to do whatever he can to get what he wants, and you don’t have to worry about Jeudy going any earlier than eight. If you’re really into the Broncos rumor like I am, Jeudy is also +190 to be taken in the top 10. Just saying. --CP
(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Over/Under when Andrew Thomas gets drafted: Over 10.5 (+110, FanDuel).
From most of the analysis, mocks and odds we've seen, Jedrick Wills (Alabama), Tristan Wirfs (Iowa) and Mekhi Becton (Louisville) have been evaluated higher on most team's draft boards than Georgia's Anthony Thomas. Wirfs or Wills could go to the Giants at No. 4, then the other to Arizona at No. 8. The Browns at No. 10 also need a lineman, but they've been linked to Becton in most breakdowns we've seen. Sure, a story came out about Becton having a drug test flagged before the Combine, so that could lead the Browns to go Thomas over Becton, but we think it'd be a reach at No. 10. Plus, Sportsbook.ag marks the Over 10.5 as being -170, so that tells us there's some strong value at this number. --SH
Second overall pick: Tua Tagovailoa (14-1, FanDuel).
Chase Young is the heavy, heavy favorite at No. 2 (-3000). But does Washington really need another star defensive lineman? If the team reads a column by SI's Michael Rosenberg from this weekend, it might consider drafting a quarterback if the team isn't convinced of Dwayne Haskins' being its long-term answer (And frankly, we're convinced he's not). It also could address other needs if it can convince another team to trade up to No. 2, so Tua going to a team like the Chargers or Raiders trading up is a possibility. It's worth a dabble at this juicy number. --SH
Number of RBs drafted in the first round: Under 0.5 (+190, William Hill).
If the NFL has taught us anything in recent years, it’s that RBs are a dime a dozen, and using a first-round pick on them is just plain foolish. This year, there isn’t even an Ezekiel Elliott or a Saquon Barkley who you could even make a case for being worthy of a first. Could someone reach for Georgia’s D’Andre Swift? Possibly, but I’d rather bet that teams are finally learning not to waste a premium pick on one at great odds like this. --CP
(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Total Number of Quarterbacks to be drafted in the first round: Over 4.5 (+400, DraftKings).
I’m playing this because it’s such a juicy number and we know how teams love to reach for a QB. There are four stone-cold first-round locks at QB—Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love—and they are all going within the first 20 picks. We should have 12 or 13 chances for this over to hit after that. Somebody’s got to take a chance on my boy from Georgia, Jake Fromm, who everyone is down on because of a supposed step back in 2019, failing to realize his best receiver Lawrence Cager played only five games last year and the rest of his weapons were mediocre at best. And Jacob Eason and Jalen Hurts are possibilities. Worth a taste at this price. --CP
First safety to be taken: Xavier McKinney (-304, BetMGM).
Not too much value here, but it's nearly a lock. This is a perfect prop to parlay with something else for a little odds boost. You know, in case you have a lock of a Belarusian soccer match or something else you're eyeing for the weekend. --SH
Tee Higgins to be drafted before Denzel Mims: (+140, DraftKings).
Baylor's Mims being -175 in this matchup scares me, almost like somebody knows something we don’t. But Higgins, who hauled in 59 balls for over 930 yards and 12 TDs in each of his last two seasons at Clemson, is the higher-rated prospect virtually everywhere you look, and you’re getting him plus odds? Why not. --CP
Position of first Philadelphia Eagles player drafted: Defense (+165, BetMGM).
It's interesting: The narrative you get from reading most sites is that the Eagles want to go wide receiver at this pick. But the mock drafts are more split. We're seeing about 45 percent of mock drafts going linebacker at the No. 21 spot. For that reason, we think there's a little value here. If the WR that the Eagles covet isn't available here, we can absolutely see them pivoting to someone like Kenneth Murray of Oklahoma or Patrick Queen of LSU here. --SH
(Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Position of Mr. Irrelevant: Defense (+100, DraftKings).
Just something to keep you interested until the very end of the draft on Saturday night. What, you got other plans? Didn't think so. --CP