Betting Analysis
Masters 2022: 8 favorite prop bets we're making
Gregory Shamus
It's Tuesday afternoon of Masters week, and we've officially entered "let's just get on with it" territory. There's only so many Tiger Woods takes and Champions Dinner-related quotes one human can handle before it's time to just put the damn tee in the ground.
Unfortunately, much like Christmas morning when you were a child, Masters Thursday takes awhile to arrive. The good thing about that is it gives us a little extra time to get back in the lab and pour over the data, allowing us to make some informed wagers in the prop market. Yes, we already published our full expert picks column (go read here), but below myself and fellow New Jersey degenerate Stephen Hennessey dug a little deeper for our eight favorite prop bets for this year's small gathering of friends at Augusta National. Best of luck to all, and, as always, fade at your own risk.
Tommy Fleetwood, Round 1 Top-10 finish (+500, DraftKings) — I'd prefer the Round 1 Top-20 finish bet, but DraftKings hasn't posted odds for those (yet?). We'll settle for this juicy number on a R1 Top 10 for Fleetwood, who has shot 69 or lower in five of the six opening rounds he's played on the PGA Tour this year. Also, the Englishman is off at 10:12 a.m. ET on Thursday, which appears to be the favorable side of the draw. Give me a four-under 68, and I think we're cashing a 5-1 ticket late Thursday evening. -- CP
Corey Conners to lead after Round 1 (50-1, PointsBet) — Seems like Conners’ confidence in his ball-striking is back, as evidenced in his run to the Final Four in the Match Play. The Canadian is one of a few players with top-10 finishes in the past two Masters, so he heads to a place he has a proven track record. His putting can get hot enough in one round. -- SH
Hideki Matsuyama to miss the cut (+240, Bet365) — This is a tough one to pull the trigger on because Hideki is not a cut-misser. But three of the past five Masters winners have gone on to miss the cut in the following Masters, and none of them were dealing with injury like Matsuyama is right now, one that's actually forced him to make a slight change in his swing to avoid pain in his neck. That, plus the fact he's got to deal with everything that comes with being the defending champ, has me eyeing this early-exit bet. -- CP
Cameron Young to finish in the Top 20 (+320, Bet365) — We don’t need to break out the Fuzzy Zoeller/debutant trend stats here. Plenty of first-timers finish in the top 20, and Cam Young is certainly capable. Distance might be even more crucial than most years at Augusta, and the 23-year-old is second on tour in driving distance this season. Plus, one of the best comp courses to Augusta National is Riviera, and that’s where the 23-year-old nearly chased down Joaquin Niemann just a few months ago. -- SH
Kevin C. Cox
Erik van Rooyen to finish in the Top 30 (+260, FanDuel) — In the first four majors of his career, van Rooyen finished inside the top 20 in three of them, including a T-8 at the 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage Black. He's since struggled in the seven majors he's played since, missing three cuts with a high finish of T-23, but his game has quietly rounded back into form over the last nine months. If not for a balky putter at the Players, he likely finishes in the top 10 (the South African gained over 11 strokes on approach at TPC Sawgrass). I think he gets back to his big-game hunting ways this week, which should be plenty good enough to place inside the top 30. -- CP
Tournament Winning Score: Over 278.5 (+100, DraftKings) — The course changes should make Augusta play slightly tougher, but the conditions should be pretty ideal this weekend … and Hideki Matsuyama won at 10-under. I think with softer conditions after a lot of rain Tuesday into Wednesday, there’s a great chance the winning score is closer to 15-under. -- SH
Tiger Woods to make the cut (+100, Bet365) — The more I see people touting this bet at even money or even plus odds, the more I think it's the biggest sucker bet ever. I don't care, I'll gladly be a sucker for Tiger at Augusta National, where he has not missed the cut since 1996 (!!), the only time he ever MC'd on the hallowed grounds. Yes, there will be rust, but he's not going through all of this pomp and circumstance to throw up a few 80s. No one knows how to get around this place better than Woods, be it on two legs or one. -- CP
A hole-in-one to be made on the 16th hole: Yes (-125, DraftKings) — Is there a more fun bet in golf? We’ve seen seven players in the past six years make holes-in-one at the 16th hole alone—the traditional Sunday pin position should once again generate some fireworks … and you’ll be happy you made this bet when you cash in. -- SH