Genesis Scottish Open picks 2022: A rare opportunity with Collin Morikawa
Two amazing weeks of Scottish golf await us. There are few better things than waking up super early, turning on the TV and watching the world’s best navigate a classic layout. Though the Renaissance Club isn’t a true “classic” test, having been built in the 2000s by Tom Doak on land bordering Muirfield, it does feature vistas of the Firth of Forth along some tumbling dunes, providing a championship test and a proper lead-up for the 150th Open Championship next week at the Old Course.
Don’t sleep on this week. Fourteen of the top 15 players in the world are teeing it up at the Genesis Scottish Open, providing us with one of the most stacked non-major fields of the year. If you choose to skip the favorites, there’s some strong value down on the odds board. One of those players is the reigning Champion Golfer of the Year, who despite owning the 36-hole lead at the U.S. Open is still being a tad disrespected, sitting at 30-1 at some books. That’s enough for three of our experts to jump on board.
RELATED: Genesis Scottish Open picks 2022: Our DFS expert on why the Viktor Hovland disrespect is out of hand
Here are the rest of our bets, courtesy of Pat Mayo from Mayo Media Network/DraftKings; Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel; Rick Gehman of RickRunGood.com; Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports and an anonymous caddie, sending us his picks from the Scottish Open.
Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open.
Scottish Open 2022 picks: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Jon Rahm (12-1, DraftKings) — Rahm’s been playing much better golf the past couple months. He struggled on Sunday at Brookline but was right there. I think this kind of golf will suit him well, too—I love his lower, piercing ball flight if the wind starts blowing.
Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Collin Morikawa (28-1, DraftKings) — Hopefully he fixed his turf issues from a year ago. In a field this stacked, you need to look at any sort of value you can find, and somehow, despite the field being weaker, Morikawa has longer odds this week than next.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Sam Burns (27-1, FanDuel) — Burns has the game to win anywhere, and his numbers are a bit too low on the betting board. Burns sets up to gain distance on the field as well as strokes from approach and putting. He was top 20 here last year even while losing strokes from his wedges.
Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Cameron Smith (25-1, DraftKings) — It’s easy to overlook Smith, coming off a missed cut at the U.S. Open, but I couldn’t pass up on this price. Already with two wins this year, Smith has gained 1.32 strokes on approach over his last 24 rounds – the best mark of anyone in this field per the RickRunGood.com golf database. He’s gone a bit cold with the putter as of late, but that rarely stays cold for too long.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Collin Morikawa (28-1, DraftKings) — There’s a 30-1 out there on Bet365 … anytime we get Collin Morikawa at 30-1 odds, you have to take them …
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest assistant editor: Collin Morikawa (30-1, Bet365) — Morikawa’s approach play at the U.S. Open wasn’t peak Morikawa, but it was solid enough for a top-five finish because he combined it with his best putting week since Riviera. Back in the U.K. where the vibes are immaculate off his Open win a year ago, I think he’s very live to “peak” these next two weeks, making this 30-1 number impossible to pass up.
Lee Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Scottie Scheffler (14-1, BetMGM) — Scheffler comes into this event ranked fourth in the field for SG/total over the last two years and over the last two months. He also ranks fourth in the field this week for SG/total on similar courses / setups to the Renaissance Club. A 12th-place finish here last year plus an eighth at The Open shows the World No. 1 is more than comfortable on a links course. A fifth win in his last 13 events is most certainly in the cards this week.
Past results: Golf Digest's betting panel had another strong season in 2020-’21, correctly predicting 14 winners in the last 28 events of the year. The 2021-’22 season has been kind to us so far, too. Just two weeks ago, two of our experts (Pat Mayo and Lee Aldrick) selected Rory McIlroy at 8-1 to win the RBC Canadian Open. Previously this season, Christopher Powers nailed Scottie Scheffler’s win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open at 29-1 and then backed it up with Joaquin Niemann at 60-1 to win at Riviera. A few weeks before that, Mayo also correctly predicted Luke List’s victory at Torrey Pines at 70-1. Rick Gehman hit Sam Burns (16-1) at the Sanderson Farms Championship in the fall, as well as Viktor Hovland (19-1) at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. Brandon Gdula also hit on Hovland at Mayakoba, and Stephen Hennessey cashed on Hideki Matsuyama (12-1) at the Zozo Championship.
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Scottish Open 2022 picks: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Corey Conners (50-1, FanDuel) — I’m trusting ball-strikers here, and Conners is one of the elites. He had been trending toward finding the winners circle with strong play in the spring; maybe he’ll reclaim that when it’s windy and the emphasis is on that elite ball-striking.
Mayo: Robert MacIntyre (70-1, DraftKings) — The Scot was 8-under over the weekend in Ireland a week ago, and did so with his ball-striking. Hopefully, that injection of his irons corrected his recent struggles … it’s been a rough couple of months. However, any glimpse of good form is enough to back Macintyre at this course at this price.
Gdula: Cameron Young (60-1, FanDuel) — Young is long off the tee and has no real holes in his game, which will be vital for a great showing in a loaded field. Young possesses 93rd-percentile putting splits from five-to-10 feet, which is a crucial range, and the recent form is nearly as hot as anyone’s.
Gehman: Mito Pereira (80-1, DraftKings) — Pereira has missed two cuts in a row, both of them right on the number. If we can forgive those two blemishes, we can remember that Pereira is a pure ball-striker – ranking 15th in this field over the last 50 rounds. He has four top-20 finishes over his last six starts and has all the metrics pointing in his favor for The Renaissance Club.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Haotong Li (125-1, FanDuel) — Probably a square take, but Haotong just won in his last start in Europe. Long-term, the stats don’t look great but he had been trending toward that win.
Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Rose (75-1, DraftKings) — Considering he’s 50-1 just about everywhere else, it feels like you have to jump on this juicy Justin Rose number over at DK. Of course, he’s played well recently, too, as we all saw at the RBC Canadian Open when he had 59 on the brain on the 72nd tee Sunday, ultimately settling for 60. Also, it flew a bit under the radar, but Rose confirmed in May that he, at the time, had no intentions to join the LIV Golf series now or in the foreseeable future, saying his goal is to continue to play in and compete in majors. With a big one looming next week, I expect him to be sharp at The Renaissance Club.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Ryan Fox (45-1, DraftKings) — Fox’s form coming into this event is crazy good. He has finished top three in four of his last six events. We know he can absolutely overpower this course because he has five top 10 finishes at links style courses already to his name.
Scottish Open 2022 picks: Players to Fade This Week (who will disappoint)
Caddie: Sungjae Im (35-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I think Sungjae might have trouble flighting it low if the wind picks up … I’m fading him in links-like conditions until he shows that ability.
Mayo: Xander Schauffele (18-1, DraftKings) — Three wins in a row for Xander? (Yes, counting the JP MacManus). Let’s just play the odds and assume that’s not going to happen.
Gdula: Collin Morikawa (26-1, FanDuel) — It’s hard to pick a fade among the favorites this week, but Morikawa’s recent form is weak compared to the other studs, and his putting lags way behind the others. While he can get hot any week, I can make a better case for virtually anyone else at similar odds.
Gehman: Sam Burns (27-1, FanDuel) — It’s difficult to find a fade at the top of this stacked board but Burns has me a hair concerned. He’s lost strokes on approach in each of his last two starts which is something that usually takes longer to turn around. Considering that’s one of the strengths of his game, it’s worrisome to see the struggles. Finally, as far as top players go, Burns is definitely on the volatile side. He’s missed six cuts in his last 13 individual events.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Patrick Cantlay (22-1, Bet365) — Cantlay needs to do something in a links-golf setting before I feel confident betting money on him.
Ryan Fox is a popular pick this week after his runner-up at the Irish Open last week continued a run of tremendous form.
Powers, Golf Digest: Ryan Fox (40-1, FanDuel) — I like Ryan Fox a lot and hate this fade section because the only thing it does is make you look stupid. This is just a fade of the entire gambling community as they are ALL on Fox this week, and it just never works like that. Something something big buildings in Las Vegas something something.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Justin Thomas (14-1, DraftKings) — There are too many good links style players that have great form for Thomas to win this week in my opinion. Thomas has never done anything of note on a true links course. Also, his putting over the last two years ranks just 50th in the field this week.
Scottish Open 2022 picks: Matchups
Caddie: Viktor Hovland (+100) over Sungjae Im (DraftKings) — Chirp about his short game all you want … it really shouldn’t matter here. I’ll trust the more skilled flighter of the golf ball.
Mayo: Aaron Rai (-125) over Matt Kuchar (DraftKings) — The 2020 Scottish Open champ over the 2025 AARP member? I saw enough from Rai’s top 10 last week in Ireland to think he can keep up the form in Scotland.
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Gdula: Hideki Matsuyama (-105) over Jordan Spieth (FOX Bet) — Hideki holds an advantage in tee-to-green play over Spieth over a six-and-12-month period, and without Spieth’s elite putting for now, then it’s Matsuyama with an advantage in this matchup.
Gehman: Max Homa (+100) over Joaquin Niemann (DraftKings) — Homa hasn’t missed a cut since the Farmers Insurance Open, and he’s gained strokes in the ball-striking categories in 11 straight events. That alone gives him a very high floor, which is valuable in matchup markets. Now combine that with improvements in SG/around-the-green, an area he’s gained strokes in in three straight starts, and you’ve got a recipe for success.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Xander Schauffele (-120) over Patrick Cantlay (DraftKings) — Xander’s on a damn heater right now. I will gladly fade Cantlay any chance I get (I know this sentence will be screenshotted when Cantlay wins by four).
Powers, Golf Digest: Max Homa (-110) over Keegan Bradley (ODDS) — Even though he’s never been to Scotland before, Homa’s consistency in 2022 is impossible to ignore. Bradley has had an excellent 2022 campaign, too, but his volatility with the putter has me leaning Homa here.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Jon Rahm (-110) over Justin Thomas (Bet365) — As you can see above, I have my doubts about Thomas this week. Rahm on the other hand comes into this event ranked first in the field for SG/total over the past two years, seventh for SG/total over the past two months and has great links course history, including a seventh here last year.
Matchup Results from the John Deere Classic: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Long (-130) over Glover); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Stallings (-102) over Rodgers); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Svensson (-120) over Lashley); Alldrick: 1 for 1 (McCarthy (+100) over Theegala); Powers: PUSH (Taylor (+105) over Huh); Caddie: 0 for 1; Gehman: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Mayo: 24-6-4 (up 16.87 units); Powers: 19-13-4 (up 5.91 units); Caddie: 20-14-2 (up 4.65 units); Alldrick: 20-14-2 (up 3.44 units); Gdula: 17-17-1 (down 1.19 units); Gehman: 15-16-4 (down 2.02 units); Hennessey: 16-19-1 (down 7.07 units)
Scottish Open 2022 picks: Top 10s
Caddie: Scottie Scheffler (+170, Bet365) — Scheffler’s the rightful co-favorite, and he’s been so consistent even with his B game the past month or so … it wouldn’t be a surprise if he refinds his putter here.
Mayo: Haotong Li (+900, DraftKings) — Before his win in Germany, Haotong had been plagued by one awful round per event, which would completely derail his week. That didn’t happen in Germany. Following that up with another win would be asking a lot against this field, but a top 10 is completely doable. He’s already in far better form entering this event than he was in 2020 when he finished T-14.
Gdula: Cameron Smith (+360, FanDuel) — My model is suggesting that the oddsmakers are getting too low on Smith, who leads the field in SG/approach over the past six months, according to datagolf. Iron play should matter a lot this week based on historical results at this course. I’ll gladly take some value here on Smith.
Gehman: Ryan Fox (+450, DraftKings) — Fox has been a force on the DP World Tour, piling up six straight top-eight finishes on that circuit. That includes a win and three runners-up during that stretch. He’s incredibly talented and one of the longest hitters on tour, he certainly won’t be out of his element in this event.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Scottie Scheffler (+170, Bet365) — I’m with our caddie … take the free money.
Powers, Golf Digest: Thorbjorn Olesen (+1200, DraftKings) — Not only does the Thunder Bear have a recent victory (British Masters), his first in nearly four years, but he’s coming off a top 10 at the Irish Open. Unfortunately, neither of those strong results resulted in an Open Championship exemption, but that just means he has a ton to play for this week. The top three players not otherwise exempt will gain entry into next week’s Open at St. Andrews, and given how many guys are already in, that might only require a top-10 finish for the Dane.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Lucas Herbert (+500, DraftKings) — Herbert has a thing for Links courses, especially the Renaissance Club. The Australian has finished fourth here both of the last two years, has a win at the Irish Open and a seventh at the Alfred Dunhill Link Challenge. A ninth-place finish last week at this year’s Irish Open is all the form I need to see to jump on him this week.
Top-10 results from the John Deere Classic: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Cam Davis +450); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Christiaan Bezuidenhout +450); Powers: 1 for 1 (Scott Stallings +350); Alldrick: 1 for 1 (Denny McCarthy +275); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Alldrick: 13 for 36 (up 40.5 units); Powers: 12 for 36 (up 32.55 units); Gehman: 8 for 36 (up 2.7 units); Caddie: 10 for 36 (up 1 unit); Hennessey: 8 for 36 (down 0.38 units); Mayo: 6 for 35 (down 1.2 units); Gdula: 4 for 35 (down 14.6 units)
Watch the below video for our hole-by-hole drone footage with analysis from our architecture editor:
Scottish Open 2022 picks: One and Done
Gehman: Tommy Fleetwood — Admittedly, I’m running low on resources at this point in the year and Fleetwood is my best option available. The good news is that he’s been splendid from tee-to-green in 2022 – gaining strokes to the field in nine of his 12 measured events this year. Returning to The Renaissance Club should provide plenty of great vibes – Fleetwood finished T-26 last year and runner-up in 2020.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Kevin Na; Sanderson Farms Championship: Mito Pereira. Shriners: Abraham Ancer. CJ Cup: Louis Oosthuizen. Zozo Championship: Hideki Matsuyama. Bermuda Championship: Seamus Power. Mayakoba: Abraham Ancer. Houston Open: Sam Burns. RSM Classic: Scottie Scheffler. Sentry TOC: Sungjae Im. Sony Open: Corey Conners. American Express: Talor Gooch. Farmers Insurance Open: Tony Finau. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger. Waste Management Phoenix Open: Viktor Hovland. Genesis Invitational: Xander Schauffele. Honda Classic: Billy Horschel. Arnold Palmer Invitational: Rory McIlroy. Players Championship: Jon Rahm. Valspar Championship: Dustin Johnson. Valero Texas Open: Charley Hoffman. The Masters: Brooks Koepka. RBC Heritage: Patrick Cantlay. Mexico Open: Aaron Wise. Wells Fargo: Matt Fitzpatrick. AT&T Byron Nelson: Justin Thomas. PGA Championship: Jordan Spieth. Charles Schwab Challenge: Max Homa. The Memorial Tournament: Will Zalatoris. RBC Canadian Open: Cameron Smith. U.S. Open: Collin Morikawa. Travelers Championship: Davis Riley. John Deere Classic: Cam Davis.
Hennessey: Matt Fitzpatrick — If you can look past the abysmal play in a Monday/Tuesday pro-am, Fitzy seems like the obvious play this week.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo; Sanderson Farms Championship: Carlos Ortiz. Shriners: Abraham Ancer. CJ Cup: Collin Morikawa. Zozo Championship: Takumi Kanaya. Bermuda Championship: Seamus Power. Mayakoba: Aaron Wise. Houston Open: Sam Burns. RSM Classic: Brendon Todd. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. Sony Open: Marc Leishman. American Express: Sungjae Im. Farmers Insurance Open: Daniel Berger. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Lanto Griffin. Waste Management Phoenix Open: Viktor Hovland. Genesis Invitational: Will Zalatoris. Honda Classic: Russell Knox. Arnold Palmer Invitational: Keith Mitchell. Players Championship: Cameron Smith. Valspar Championship: Shane Lowry. Valero Texas Open: Chris Kirk. The Masters: Justin Thomas. RBC Heritage: Russell Henley. Mexico Open: Gary Woodland. Wells Fargo: Troy Merritt. AT&T Byron Nelson: Jhonattan Vegas. PGA Championship: Scottie Scheffler. Charles Schwab Challenge: Jordan Spieth. The Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm. RBC Canadian Open: Cameron Smith. U.S. Open: Rory McIlroy. Travelers Championship: Joaquin Niemann. John Deere Classic: Webb Simpson.
Powers: Viktor Hovland — There’s only one major left and I’ve barely used any great players, which is all the evidence you need that “stashing” guys might not be the prudent play in OADs. Now I’ve got guys like Hovland left and not enough tournaments left to use them all.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Brendan Steele. Sanderson Farms Championship: Mito Pereira. Shriners: Aaron Wise. CJ Cup: Talor Gooch. Zozo Championship: Joaquin Niemann. Bermuda Championship: Patrick Rodgers. Mayakoba: Jhonattan Vegas. Houston Open: Marc Leishman. RSM Classic: Corey Conners. Sentry TOC: Daniel Berger. Sony Open: Kevin Na. American Express: Seamus Power. Farmers Insurance Open: Luke List. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Cameron Tringale. Waste Management Phoenix Open: Bubba Watson. Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott. Honda Classic: Billy Horschel. Arnold Palmer Invitational: Chris Kirk. Players Championship: Xander Schauffele. Valspar Championship: Sam Burns. Valero Texas Open: Charley Hoffman. The Masters: Brooks Koepka. RBC Heritage: Matt Fitzpatrick. Mexico Open: Abraham Ancer. Wells Fargo: Keegan Bradley. AT&T Byron Nelson: Sahith Theegala. PGA Championship: Jordan Spieth. Charles Schwab Challenge: Tommy Fleetwood. The Memorial Tournament: Patrick Reed. RBC Canadian Open: Tyrrell Hatton. U.S. Open: Shane Lowry. Travelers Championship: Davis Riley. John Deere Classic: Scott Stallings.
Watch the below video for our hole-by-hole drone footage with analysis from our architecture editor:
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long- and short-form content, owner of the Mayo Media Network and host of The Pat Mayo Experience. (Subscribe for video or audio.) Mayo (@ThePME) was named 2021 Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writing Association, while also being a finalist for Podcast of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year. Mayo won the 2020 FSWA Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award in 2020. He was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). Mayo is on the board of governors at www.fantasynational.com.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast.
Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.
Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports started out writing an article highlighting the best bargain plays for fantasy golf under his twitter handle @DKGolfBargains. His success at this prompted FanShare Sports to enlist him as a guest writer, which evolved into him writing the weekly Under The Radar article. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldrick’s insight into European Tour regulars and low priced, low owned plays has provided an invaluable edge for readers when it comes to DFS GPPs.