Fantasy Advice
Genesis Scottish Open DFS picks 2022: The Viktor Hovland disrespect is out of hand
Though the Genesis Scottish Open has been played since 1972, this year will be the first time it’s part of the PGA Tour (it’s co-sanctioned this week with the DP World Tour). The result is a very stellar field ahead of next week’s Open Championship with 14 of the top-15 players in the world.
The Renaissance Club, ranked 21st on Golf Digest’s most recent ranking of the Best Courses in Scotland, was Tom Doak’s first design in the country. Since he added three new holes on the seaside in 2013, the course has become a mainstay on tour. This year, the links-like design with its tricky greens and undulations and rumbles will host its biggest event.
Watch the below video for our hole-by-hole drone footage with analysis from our architecture editor:
Here are my favorite plays and fades this week at the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open.
Price range: $9,000 and above
High Upside: Cameron Smith ($9,100 DraftKings | $11,000 FanDuel)
Smith is the “X-factor” on this slate. He’s coming off a missed cut at the U.S. Open and might be overlooked with the depth of this field. However, it’s Smith who leads this field in strokes gained/approach (gaining 1.32 strokes per round) over his last 24 rounds, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. His putting hasn’t been up to his lofty standards as of late, but he’s one good putting week away from lifting another trophy.
Safest Option: Scottie Scheffler ($11,200 DraftKings | $12,000 FanDuel)
The stat profile from Scheffler is terrifying for the rest of the field. His putter has gone cold, losing a total of 0.31 strokes to the field over his past six starts. Compare that to the 21.82 strokes/putting that he gained in his previous six starts. Even with the “slump,” Scheffler has earned two runner-up finishes and three more top 20s during that stretch. Even with his B-plus game, he’s on the first page of the leaderboard.
Most Likely To Disappoint: Sam Burns ($9,200 DraftKings | $10,900 FanDuel)
I’m a big believer in Burns, but we have to start splitting hairs in a field this good. The glaring concern for Burns is his ball-striking. He’s lost strokes on approach in each of his past two starts, resulting in a T-27 at the U.S. Open and a missed cut at the Travelers Championship. Burns usually foreshadows his good weeks, and I’m not necessarily seeing that message this time.
Pick To Win: Xander Schauffele ($9,900 DraftKings | $11,700 FanDuel)
Ben Jared
Schauffele has been phenomenal with gains of 11.1, 9.3, 8.4 and 6.4 strokes to the field over the last two months. The scary part is that I’ve omitted his two wins during that stretch! He piled up another 16.4 strokes gained at the Travelers Championship and went wire-to-wire with Patrick Cantlay at the Zurich Classic. All evidence points to Schauffele having another great week.
$8,000 to $9,000
High Upside: Ryan Fox ($8,500 DraftKings | $9,800 FanDuel)
Stuart Franklin
Fox plays primarily on the DP World Tour, where he’s been splendid. His past six events on that circuit had resulted in a win, three runner-up finishes, a third and a T-8. His two PGA Tour starts this year have come in majors, finishing T-54 at the PGA Championship and missing the cut at the U.S. Open. He’s incredibly talented, but his range of outcomes in this field is very wide.
Safest Option: Max Homa ($8,000 DraftKings | $10,000 FanDuel)
Homa hasn’t missed a cut since the Farmers Insurance Open 11 starts ago. Even more impressive is that he has gained strokes ball-striking in each of those starts. His short game is much improved, gaining strokes around-the-green in three straight and six of his past 10. He’s a grinder who finds a way to impress on a weekly basis.
Most Likely To Disappoint: Billy Horschel ($8,200 DraftKings | $10,400 FanDuel)
Horschel is a fairly volatile golfer and difficult to predict. He has sandwiched his win at the Memorial with two missed cuts, but the factor that worries me most is Horschel’s approach play. Over his past 24 rounds he’s been tour average. He’s been reliant on his short game, which is difficult to regularly repeat.
Pick To Win: Viktor Hovland ($8,800 DraftKings | $10,700 FanDuel)
Hovland checks in with a price tag as low as we’ve seen it in over a year. His deficiencies around-the-green are generally overblown, and they haven’t stopped him from winning six times in 85 career events. He’s one of the best ball-strikers in this field, and we are getting an opportunity to “buy low.”
$7,000 to $8,000
High Upside: Keith Mitchell ($7,800 DraftKings | $9,400 FanDuel)
Mitchell is quietly playing some of the best golf on tour this season. In his past 19 events, he’s piled up 10 top-20 finishes, including recent results of T-6 at the Travelers, T-7 at the RBC Canadian Open and T-18 at the Memorial. His weapon is his driver: Gaining strokes off-the-tee in 22 of his past 24 measured events, per the RickRunGood.com golf database.
Safest Option: Aaron Rai ($7,400 DraftKings | $9,400 FanDuel)
Rai won this event in 2020 and backed it up with a T-35 last year at The Renaissance Club. One could argue that he’s playing better now than he did before that 2020 victory. He finished T-13 in Canada and finished T-9 at the Irish Open last week. He’s gained strokes to the field in nine of his past 10 starts, and this is one of the better courses on the schedule for him.
Most Likely To Disappoint: Lucas Herbert ($7,600 DraftKings | $9,700 FanDuel)
I’m a big fan of Herbert, but he could absolutely be the trap of the week. With back-to-back T-4 finishes at this event and a T-9 last week at the Irish Open, he’s setting up to be quite popular on this slate. The worry for me is that Herbert is very reliant on his short game. He’s gained strokes in the ball-striking categories just once in his past 13 starts! That style of golf creates a very narrow path to the top of the board.
Pick To Win: Mito Pereira ($7,700 DraftKings | $9,600 FanDuel)
Carmen Mandato
It’s easy to scroll past Pereira, who has missed two straight cuts, but he’s played about as well as possible without finding the weekend. He actually gained 0.76 strokes to the field at the U.S. Open but missed the cut on the number. Then he lost a measly 0.08 strokes to the field at the Travelers, cutting his week short. It was four straight top-20 finishes prior to those two MCs, and he’s one of the best ball-strikers on tour.
$6,900 and below
High Upside: Padraig Harrington ($6,700 DraftKings | $8,100 FanDuel)
Harrington is playing confident golf right now, fresh off his victory at the U.S. Senior Open Championship. Not considering strength of field, he’s gaining 2.24 strokes per round over his last 24 rounds, the most of anyone in this price range. He’s also going to feel great returning to The Renaissance Club, finishing T-18 and T-9 in the past two years.
Safest Option: Matthew NeSmith (6,900 DraftKings | $8,200 FanDuel)
In a field comprised of players from all over the world and from all different tours, it’s likely best to consider “Weighted Strokes Gained.” That’s a calculation on RickRunGood.com that considers strength of field and a variety of other factors to compare results across tours. NeSmith is the 32nd-ranked golfer in this field over the last 24 rounds in Weighted Strokes Gained, and he piles up those gains in the ball-striking categories.
Most Likely To Disappoint: Russell Knox ($6,900 DraftKings | $8,500 FanDuel)
Knox simply doesn’t look like himself right now. Usually one of the better approach players on tour, Knox has lost a total of 0.69 strokes to the field over his past eight measured starts. In his eight starts before this “slump,” he gained 21 strokes in the same category! It’s always alarming when a golfer is struggling with their biggest strengths.
Pick To Win: Victor Perez ($6,900 DraftKings | $8,100 FanDuel)
David Cannon
Perez was a winner at the Dutch Open just a few weeks ago and he backed it up with a T-3 at the Porsche European Open immediately following. Perez has proven to be a high risk/high reward golfer who should be deployed in situations where safety doesn’t matter.
Rick Gehman, founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.