Betting Analysis
Bermuda Championship picks 2022: Our expert caddie loves this journeyman to break through in Bermuda
We're pleased to report that the panel is officially on the board for the 2022-'23 PGA Tour season, with Lee Alldrick hitting on Rory McIlroy at 7-1 at last week's CJ Cup in South Carolina. Time to start stacking wins.
This week the tour heads to Bermuda, where the field is noticeably less strong than it was a week ago at Congaree. That's the bad news. The good news? There's a ton of value in the middle tier of the odds board, and, more importantly, in the longshot tier. If you like to bet a little to win a lot, this might just be the week for you.
Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2022 Bermuda Championship.
Bermuda Championship picks 2022: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Mark Hubbard (25-1, DraftKings) — A shorter, coastal track should be perfect for Hubbs to break through. He’s made some impressive gains with his ball-striking over the past four-to-six months, and his putter can get hot, which is a great recipe for success around Port Royal.
Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Ryan Armour (80-1, DraftKings) — A peek back at those who consistently play well in Bermuda reveals accurate drivers and fantastic putters. Few are more accurate than Armour, and the putter? Well, it’s fire and ice. He’s dropped on the greens four of his past six starts but in the two he gained: +4.2 and +6.0 SG/putting.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Denny McCarthy (16-1, FanDuel) — McCarthy has played well at Port Royal (15th, fourth and 39th), and it makes sense at a course that doesn’t require driving accuracy. Overall, he’s not an elite ball-striker, but he’s fine versus a field like this, and he’s the best golfer in the field without question. His two poor results recently, a MC and a T-37, came from bad putting (a rarity for him) and mask good ball-striking outings.
Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Robby Shelton (40-1, DraftKings) — Shelton was stellar on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, earning a win, runner-up and four more top 30s in his final seven starts. Now a full-time member of the PGA Tour, he’s made the cut in every start this season and is coming off a T-15 in Las Vegas. He’s gaining 1.513 strokes per round over his last 36 rounds worldwide, the best mark of anyone in this field, per the RickRunGood.com golf database.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Russell Knox (40-1, BetMGM) — One of the horses for courses who nobody pays attention to is the 37-year-old Scotsman in Bermuda … he racks up top finishes at Port Royal. Only thing missing is a victory. It’ll always be the putter holding Knox back, but if the winds really pick up, which it sounds like could happen, I’ll trust one of the best ball-strikers in this field at a good price.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest assistant editor: Russell Knox (40-1, BetMGM) — We made a pact on this week’s episode of The Loop podcast (like and subscribe) to all bet Russell Knox, so I’m joining my co-host Hennessey in touting him here. We know about his wind prowess, and we know he loves this event, going T-12, T-16 and T-11 in three trips to Port Royal. He’ll ball-strike his way into contention and then we just need the putts to drop.
Lee Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Thomas Detry (30-1, PointsBet) — Detry comes into this event ranked fifth in the field for SG/total over the past two years and second for SG/total over the past two months. The young Belgian is really starting to fulfill his potential, and a 22nd-place finish on his first visit to Port Royal last year shows how suited he is to this course. He also ranks sixth in the field for SG/putting on Bermuda greens over the past two years.
Past results: Golf Digest's betting panel caught fire at the end of the summer, correctly predicting the winner in five of the final six events of the season. We picked our first winner of the new season at the CJ Cup, with Lee Alldrick correctly predicting Rory McIlroy’s victory at Congaree at 7-1. There’s plenty more where that came from.
Bermuda Championship picks 2022: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Michael Gligic (70-1, Bet365) — Gligic is probably one of the better players on tour who casual fans wouldn’t know. His wedges can get filthy hot, the ball-striking in general is top 20 in this field and his putter is very good. I like him as a top-20 bet at plus-odds, too.
Mayo: Scott Piercy (80-1, DraftKings) — With expected gusty conditions all weekend long, expect chaos. In times like this, turn to one of the premier difficult-condition players over the past decade. It’s always a crap shoot which Piercy will show up on a weekly basis, but in a weak-field event, which could be turned upside down by the elements, taking someone with winning upside at deep odds feels like a good gamble.
Gdula: Doug Ghim (66-1, FanDuel) — Ghim’s irons are ice cold recently, but the long-term is pretty good—he’s one of the better tee-to-green golfers in the field. His results are always bogged down by bad putting as a whole, but we see super volatile results from Ghim, which works well for a longshot option.
Gehman: Kevin Yu (80-1, DraftKings) — When the tour heads to Bermuda, you can usually expect some windy coastal conditions. When those conditions arise, it’s the ball-strikers who have the biggest advantage. We are only three starts into Yu’s full-time status on the PGA Tour, but he’s providing electric numbers in the ball-striking categories. He’s gained 13.48 strokes to the field in those 12 rounds, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. That’s an exciting skill set to have this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Callum Tarren (50-1, PointsBet) — The Englishman feels like he’s on the verge of a breakout. We saw it in flashes at The Country Club, and he gains in all four major categories against this field over the past 36 rounds, per Fantasy National—including ranking 11th in strokes gained/tee to green and seventh in putting. That could be a winning formula here.
Powers, Golf Digest: Lucas Glover (80-1, DraftKings) — Ball-striker this, ball-striker that, and nobody is tipping Lucas Glover? I’ll die on that hill. And if you’re worried about him having no history to speak of at Port Royal, think again. Glover won the the PGA Grand Slam of Golf here back in 2009 when that was still a thing, so the vibes should be immaculate. He’s even got a plaque for it on the 16th hole (true story).
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Hank Lebioda (100-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Lebioda has a 16th and a third-place finish to his name here at Port Royal, so it’s not surprising to see that he ranks fifth in the field this week for SG/total at similar courses, per FanShare. Lebioda comes into this event ranked 15th in the field for Opportunities Gained this week and will fancy converting a good number of those at a course that suits.
Bermuda Championship picks 2022: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Aaron Rai (16-1, BetRivers) — Aaron’s a nice player and a good ball-striker. But he doesn’t deserve to be way below a lot of these other names on the odds board.
Mayo: Denny McCarthy (14-1, DraftKings) — Should he be the favorite? I suppose. But sub 20-1 odds on a player who MUST putt well to win is simply a gamble I don’t want to take.
Gdula: Justin Lower (24-1, FanDuel) — There’s fear in fading Lower if we look solely at the recent results, but the larger, more trustworthy sample indicates that he’s substantially overvalued at 24-1, so I’ll look elsewhere in this range.
Gehman: Seamus Power (25-1, DraftKings) — These are quite respectful odds for Power who has only been 25-1 or shorter on three other occasions in his career. Compared to those weeks, Power is in much worse form now than those previous events. He’s lost strokes on approach in seven straight including a 7.39 stroke loss in South Carolina last week. His game isn’t close to where he wants it to be and this number is much too short to consider.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Adrian Meronk (20-1, DraftKings) — I would much rather bet his fellow DP World Tour stalwart Thomas Detry at 30-1 than these gross odds.
Powers, Golf Digest: Denny McCarthy (14-1, DraftKings) — Denny McCarthy at sub 20-1 odds is CrazyTown, USA.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Adrian Meronk (20-1, DraftKings) — While he’s arguably one of the best regulars on the DP World Tour right now, this is a big step up. Meronk will be teeing it up against some of the PGA Tour’s best up-and-coming stars, and having not posted a top-10 finish in his last eight events makes this price seem way too short.
Bermuda Championship picks 2022: Matchups
Caddie: Patrick Rodgers (-125) over S.H. Kim (Bet365) — S.H. Kim is a nice player racking up impressive finishes. But Rodgers has proven that this course suits his eye, based on his close call here last year. You’re getting a player with a strong course edge over someone who has played a lot of golf recently, playing this course for the first time.
Mayo: Callum Tarren (+100) over Adam Schenk (DraftKings) — The lack of short game is a concern in the elements for Tarren, but there’s no arguing his putting prowess. In matchups pitting mid-tier golfers against each other, find one skill and hope that’s the most relevant for the week.
Gdula: Adrian Meronk (-118) over Justin Lower (FanDuel) — The recent sample slightly benefits Lower over Meronk, but the long-term shows some space between the two. Both are great putters, yet it’s Meronk who rates out with better long-term ball-striking even though Lower’s irons are good, too. My model shows value on Meronk.
Gehman: Adrian Meronk (-120) over Mark Hubbard (DraftKings) — Adrian Meronk has a very valuable skill set where his two best clubs are his longest (driver) and shortest (putter). He’s electric off the tee, gaining four-plus strokes in nine of his last 20 starts worldwide. He’s also a talented putter who hasn’t lost one or more strokes on the greens since May 2021. That’s an exciting combination for this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Stephan Jaeger (-125) over Ben An (Bet365) — Jaeger has an attractive stat profile for Bermuda, ranking seventh in SG/approach and ninth in SG/around the greens over the past 36 rounds, per Fantasy National. Ben An has the fourth-place finish to start the season, but besides that, it hasn’t been good. As any Benny An fan (like myself) knows, he’s very volatile … the type of golfer whom you want to target to play against in a matchup.
Powers, Golf Digest: Thomas Detry (+110) over Denny McCarthy (DraftKings) — Denny’s red-hot putter has gone ice cold over his last two starts, and he’s not hitting it nearly well enough to overcome that and be favored this much over a guy like Detry, who owns a pair of top-12s in his last three starts.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Thomas Detry (-120) over Adrian Meronk (Bet365) — As you can see above, Detry is my favorite to win this week. Meronk on the other hand is my fade due to his recent form not being good enough to compete with these PGA Tour regulars.
Matchup Results from the CJ Cup: Gehman: 1 for 1 (Grillo (+100) over Theegala); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Grillo (+100) over Theegala); Caddie: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1; Alldrick: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Hennessey: 5-0-0 (up 4.8 units); Gehman: 4-1-0 (up 2.65 units); Caddie: 2-3-0 (down 0.9 units); Alldrick: 3-2-0 (up 0.58 units); Powers: 1-4-0 (down 2.95 units); Mayo: 1-3-0 (down 2.1 units); Gdula: 0-4-1 (down 4 units)
Bermuda Championship picks 2022: Top 10s
Caddie: Michael Gligic (+700, Bet365) — Same reasoning as why I’m picking him to win as a longshot, see above.
Mayo: Adam Long (+400, DraftKings) — Long should be popular this week. To fit the theme, he’s accurate and putts the lights out. He’s essentially what you’re betting with Denny McCarthy but with a higher likelihood having a spike week with the driver and irons.
Gdula: Adam Long (+490, FanDuel) — A great putter and someone who usually is set back by a lack of distance, Long sets up well for this course. Long is one of three golfers to rank top-15 in adjusted strokes gained: approach and putting over the past 50 rounds, according to datagolf.
Gehman: Thomas Detry (+225, DraftKings) — Despite two down finishes in his last two starts (T-69 and T-45), Detry is still one of 12 golfers in this field who is gaining at least 1.0 strokes per round over the last 36 rounds. He’s an accomplished ball-striker, and he’s gaining strokes in every category during this 36-round stretch. Combining those two stat nuggets, he’s the only golfer in this field who is 1) gaining at least a stroke per round and 2) gaining in every category.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Mark Hubbard (+290, FanDuel) — This ain’t sexy, but unless Hubbard gets the bad end of the weather draw, I think he contends this week.
Powers, Golf Digest: Kramer Hickok (+650, DraftKings) — A glance at Hickok’s career results will reveal a ton of MCs and only a tiny handful of top-15 finishes. Two of those have come in the Bermuda Championship, and he finished 30th in his other appearance. In the short lifespan of this event, that makes him a horse for this course.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Russell Knox (+330, DraftKings) — Knox has three out of three top-20 finishes here at Port Royal so it’s not surprising to see that he ranks first in the field this week for SG/total at similar courses. The Scotsman comes into this event ranked second in the field for Opportunities Gained over the last two months so should have a great chance of converting these opportunities this week.
Top-10 results from the CJ Cup: Everybody: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 1 for 5 (up 3 units); Gdula: 1 for 5 (up 0.9 units); Caddie: 1 for 5 (up 0.5 units); Mayo: 1 for 4 (up 1 units); Alldrick: 1 for 5 (up 0 units); Gehman: 0 for 5 (down 5 units); Powers: 0 for 5 (down 5 units)
Bermuda Championship picks 2022: One and Done
Gehman: Denny McCarthy — The good thing about these weaker field events is that you don’t really need to get tricky. It’s likely that one of the favorites is a golfer you wouldn’t consider using at any other point in the season. That’s not a knock on Denny McCarthy, but it’s true. McCarthy should thrive on a shorter golf course and has found success at Port Royal, finishing T-15, T-4 and T-39 in his three trips.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo. Sanderson Farms Championship: Sam Burns. Shriners: Taylor Montgomery. Zozo: Sungjae Im. CJ Cup: Matt Fitzpatrick.
Hennessey: Mark Hubbard — Hubbard has been trending up over the past few months … and I do think he threatens to get that first PGA Tour win this week.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Cam Davis. Sanderson Farms Championship: Denny McCarthy. Shriners: Emiliano Grillo. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Sungjae Im.
Powers: Russell Knox — No offense to the Scotsman, but there is not a chance in hell I’ll need to employ him anywhere else this year.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Sahith Theegala. Sanderson Farms Championship: J.T. Poston. Shriners: Sungjae Im. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Tyrrell Hatton.
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long- and short-form content, owner of the Mayo Media Network and host of The Pat Mayo Experience. (Subscribe for video or audio.) Mayo (@ThePME) was named 2021 Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writing Association, while also being a finalist for Podcast of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year. Mayo won the 2020 FSWA Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award in 2020. He was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). Mayo is on the board of governors at www.fantasynational.com.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast.
Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.
Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports started out writing an article highlighting the best bargain plays for fantasy golf under his twitter handle @DKGolfBargains. His success at this prompted FanShare Sports to enlist him as a guest writer, which evolved into him writing the weekly Under The Radar article. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldrick’s insight into European Tour regulars and low priced, low owned plays has provided an invaluable edge for readers when it comes to DFS GPPs.