Betting Analysis
Wyndham Championship picks 2022: Can our experts pick a third straight winner?
If you can believe it, we’ve reached the end of the PGA Tour regular season, a bittersweet time for a golf bettor. Sure, football is right around the corner, but you don’t get the type of juicy odds in football that we get in golf.
Hopefully, we can cash in on those juicy odds one more time this summer. Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports has now picked two straight winners, both of them being Tony Finau at the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic. This week, he’ll look to make it three in a row with a well-known PGA Tour pro who has already won this season.
As for the rest of us, we’re pretty torn on who is going to win the regular-season finale, though two of us are on the same longshot winner.
Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2022 Wyndham Championship.
Wyndham Championship picks 2022: Our experts' outright selections
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Sungjae Im (16-1, Bet365) — On the heels of a second-place finish at the 3M, he’s on his favorite putting surface (Bermuda) where his elite iron game can flourish. He’s poised to get back in the winner’s circle.
Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Si Woo Kim (25-1, DraftKings) — Si Woo owns Sedgefield. Site of his first career win, Kim’s bonafides at the course are legit—four top 5s in his past five starts—and the form is starting to look a lot better. After three consecutive missed cuts, he’s reeled off back-to-back top-15 finishes … and gets to return to his happy place.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Shane Lowry (17-1, FanDuel) — Lowry is three for four in made cuts at Sedgefield, including a top 10, and he is one of the best iron players and putters in the field. The putter’s been a bit cold lately, or else I think he’d be a pretty solid favorite on the oddsboard.
Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Corey Conners (25-1, DraftKings) — We’ve been on a trend of guys who don’t win enough hoisting trophies in the form of Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau. That leaves Corey Conners seemingly next in line for a breakthrough. His advanced metrics also point in that direction as he’s gained off-the-tee in 38 of his last 39 starts and he’s one of the best players in this field with a short iron in his hand. That’ll be critical at Sedgefield Country Club and his odds are too good to pass up.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Justin Rose (50-1, PointsBet) — I haven’t wagered money on Justin Rose in half a decade, but I’m willing to at Sedgefield, where he was 10th last year. He ranks third in Birdies or Better and 11th in par-4 scoring between 400-450 yards over the past 36 rounds, per Fantasy National. We’ll see if the putter stays solid over the weekend; I’ll be betting him to be first-round leader to be safe.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest assistant editor: Will Zalatoris (17-1, FanDuel) — I toyed with Si Woo Kim, I toyed with Adam Scott, but ultimately I’ve decided I won’t be able to look in the mirror on Sunday evening if Willy Z closes out the regular season by finally getting a dub. We’ve all come too far to miss out on that coronation. He should be coming in with plenty of momentum off a 69-65 weekend in Detroit, and he’ll be close by his old stomping grounds, Wake Forest, so the SG/vibes should be trending in a positive direction. He’s the best player in this field by far and it’s time he starts acting like it.
Lee Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Billy Horschel (20-1, BetMGM) — Horschel comes into this event ranked sixth in the field this week for SG/total over the last two months. It was also only five events ago that he took down the Memorial. He loves it around Sedgefield, having recorded four top-11 finishes in his last five events here.
Past results: Golf Digest's betting panel, like Tony Finau, has just gone back-to-back. Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports was on Finau for both of his victories, the first at the 3M Open where Finau was 14-1, and the second at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where Finau was 13-1. Earlier this summer, Alldrick also picked Rory McIlroy (8-1) to win the RBC Canadian Open, as did Pat Mayo, who also cashed on Luke List (70-1) back in February at Torrey Pines. Previously this season, Christopher Powers nailed Scottie Scheffler’s win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open at 29-1 and then backed it up with Joaquin Niemann at 60-1 to win at Riviera. Rick Gehman also picked up two wins in the fall by correctly predicting Sam Burns (16-1) to win the Sanderson Farms Championship in the fall and Viktor Hovland (19-1) to win the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. Brandon Gdula also hit on Hovland at Mayakoba, and Stephen Hennessey cashed on Hideki Matsuyama (12-1) at the Zozo Championship.
Wyndham Championship picks 2022: Sleepers/Dark Horses who could win
Caddie: Scott Stallings (60-1, DraftKings) — Scott has three straight top 10s, and so I’m surprised his outright odds are this high. Maybe because the season-long sample size isn’t great, but he’s a multiple-time tour winner who could easily threaten for another W.
Mayo: Adam Svensson (70-1, DraftKings) — Svensson had positive putting performances in eight consecutive events before the Rocket Mortgage. It happens. I was far more encouraged to see his ball-striking return. The Canadian was fourth in the field in approach for the week and gained against the field with his driver, and most certainly, Sedgefield is a much better layout for his skills.
Gdula: Keith Mitchell (48-1, FanDuel) — Mitchell’s putting is on the long-term upswing. Sure, his distance will be a bit mitigated this week, but he doesn’t spray it all over anyway. The hyper-recent form is quite nice for him, too.
Gehman: Vince Whaley (150-1, DraftKings) — Whaley has always been an excellent putter, ranking 28th on tour this season and ninth in the field over the last 16 rounds – per the RickRunGood.com golf database. While he’s struggled for much of the season in the ball-striking categories, he’s starting to turn the corner in that department. He’s gained strokes ball-striking in three of his last five, which has helped produce some of his best results this season. Coming off a T-17 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he’s now made the cut in four straight, highlighted by a fifth-place finish at the Barbasol Championship.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Adam Svensson (70-1, DraftKings) — This is my max-unit whale play of the week, to borrow the favorite phrase of this week’s podcast guest, Brian Kirschner. Svensson is second in Birdies or Better Gained and par-4 scoring between 400-450 yards over the past 36 rounds (per Fantasy National) and is first in proximity from 125-150 yards and 11th in from 150-175 yards, which will give him plenty of chances to convert.
Powers, Golf Digest: Harris English (130-1, DraftKings) — After sitting out for nearly five full months, it’s taking English a bit of time to find his form again. But that just means we’re getting him at a discount price, so we might as well try to capitalize. There’s been plenty of bad in his return (missed his three of six cuts), but a little bit of good, too (top 20, Travelers). He’s an excellent Bermuda putter and he wasn’t that far off last week at Rocket Mortgage, where he missed the cut on the number. As a four-time tour winner in need of a monster week to sneak into the FedEx Cup Playoffs, he’s certainly worth a dart throw against this field.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (50-1, BetMGM) — Bezhuidenhout is a fantastic putter on Bermuda greens, ranking sixth in the field for SG/putting on Bermuda greens over the last two years. It’s not surprising then that he ranks fifth in the FanShareSports Course Suitability Ranking this week. The South African comes into this event with four top-20 finishes under his belt in his last seven events which includes a second at the John Deere Classic just three events back.
Wyndham Championship picks 2022: Players we're fading
Caddie: Shane Lowry (12-1, DraftKings) — His putter has betrayed him recently—so winning a birdie-fest doesn’t feel too likely. Plus, a hilly, Bermuda course in the thick of summer can’t be a good combination for the surprising tournament favorite. I’ll pass.
Mayo: Will Zalatoris (12-1, DraftKings) — Eventually, it’s going to burn me, because he’s going to win very soon, but I just don’t see it at a putting contest. He actually has a better chance next week, at a harder course against one of the best fields of the year, to notch that victory.
Gdula: Si Woo Kim (22-1, FanDuel) — Despite being a former winner here, Kim’s game isn’t built around what really tends to separate golfers at Sedgefield. His ability to gain strokes around the green isn’t typically going to get him to the top of this leaderboard. He’s overvalued because of the course history.
Gehman: Webb Simpson (20-1, DraftKings) — It’ll take some guts to fade Simpson, but I certainly think it’s a conversation worth having. He’s been dominant at Sedgefield Country Club, earning five top-seven finishes in a row and 10 top-11 finishes in his past 12 trips. However, that might be a different version of Simpson who has now lost strokes on approach in three straight starts. He’s currently in the midst of his worst approach season since 2010, his worst around-the-green season since 2009 and his worst putting season since 2016. Looking at that stat profile while paying the inflated price is not something I’m willing to do.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Will Zalatoris (12-1, DraftKings) — I don’t think it’s wise to chase the Zalatoris win here. He’s T-115 for Fairways Gained over the past 36 rounds, per Fantasy National, and a birdie-fest will most likely not be his first tour title.
Powers, Golf Digest: Webb Simpson (20-1, DraftKings) — I've been on Webb a bunch since he got back from injury to no avail. Naturally, this will likely be the time he contends, but I won't be on it.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Will Zalatoris (12-1, DraftKings) — Zalatoris isn’t suited enough to this course to warrant such a short price. His pedestrian putting on Bermuda greens plays a big part in him ranking just 40th in the FanShareSports course-suitability ranking this week. His previous two visits here have yielded a mere 29th-place finish and a missed cut.
Wyndham Championship picks 2022: Matchups
Caddie: J.T. Poston (-130) over Davis Riley (DraftKings) — Take the past champion here who’s in great form. Riley’s strengths are similar to Zalatoris: Off-the-tee length and long to middle irons. Not the course for that. Plus, Riley’s recent form is glaring when comparing it to Poston’s.
Mayo: Adam Long (-110) over Mark Hubbard (DraftKings) — Hubbard is due for a bounce back after last week, but Long has been smashing head-to-head matchups over the past six weeks, so I’m going back to the well again. Four straight top-25 finishes is excellent for his odds-range competition, and now he gets a course that places an emphasis on accuracy over distance. That’s Long’s wheelhouse.
Gdula: Tyrrell Hatton (-116) over Kevin Kisner (FanDuel) — I know this is a good setup for Kisner, but it’s also a good one for Hatton, and the long-term differential between these two guys is a lot bigger than the odds for this matchup make it seem.
Gehman: Sungjae Im (-110) over Will Zalatoris (DraftKings) — The ball-striking breakout for Im couldn’t come at a better time. He gained 10.65 strokes in the two ball-striking categories (off-the-tee plus approach) and finished runner-up at the 3M open. That’s his third top-15 finish in his last six starts and now he heads to Sedgefield Country Club where he’s had plenty of success. In his three starts at this event, he’s finished T-6, T-9 and T-24.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Adam Svensson (+126) over Harold Varner III (FanDuel) — Tough fading my guy HV3 in his home state, but Svensson rates out way better for me. HV3 misses a lot of fairways, which historically can be costly at Sedgefield.
Powers, Golf Digest: Chris Gotterup (+100) over Cameron Champ (DraftKings) — As a Cameron Champ bettor, I know how hit or miss he can be. Gotterup, meanwhile, has been a consistent cut-maker early in his PGA Tour career and is due for another big week.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Sungjae Im (-110) over Will Zalatoris (DraftKings) — As you can see above I’m not a fan of Zalatoris this week. Im, on the other hand, has two top 10’s here in the last three years and ranks eighth in the FanShareSports CSR this week. He also comes into this event off the back off of a second-place finish last time out.
Matchup Results from the Rocket Mortgage Classic: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Simpson (+100) over Hubbard); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Smalley (-110) over Pan); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Woodland (-102) over McNealy); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Davis (+108) over Homa); Gehman: 0 for 1; Powers 0 for 1; Alldrick: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Mayo: 27-7-4 (up 18.52 units); Powers: 21-15-4 (up 5.73 units); Caddie: 22-15-3 (up 5.65 units); Alldrick: 21-17-2 (up 1.35 units); Gdula: 19-19-1 (down 1.39 units); Gehman: 16-18-5 (down 3.11 units); Hennessey: 19-20-1 (down 5.46 units)
Wyndham Championship picks 2022: Top 10s
Caddie: Stephan Jaeger (+1100, Bet365) — When his putter gets hot, look out. He can go super low, like he did in contending at the Rocket Mortgage last week.
Mayo: Russell Henley (+230, DraftKings) — Henley gained in each tee-to-green metric last week in Detroit en route to a T-10, and he’s now back on his preferred putting surface (he gains 0.33 strokes/putting per round on Bermuda). Sedgefield is a layout that can let him get away with his distance deficiencies.
Gdula: Russell Henley (+280, FanDuel) — Henley is an elite iron player in this field, and he hits tons of fairways. The main question is always the putter. However, Henley putts best on Bermuda greens, and all three of his wins on tour came on this surface.
Gehman: J.T. Poston (+400, DraftKings) — Poston is rolling right now—earning a win, a T-2 and a T-11 over the course of his last four starts. Only five golfers in this field have gained more strokes to the field than Poston over the last 24 rounds and he’s the only one in that group with a victory during that stretch. He should be able to keep the ball in-play off-the-tee and roll in enough putts to contend, the game plan that he executed when he won this event in 2019.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: J.T. Poston (+400, DraftKings) — This is one of the most predictive courses in terms of course history, plus we get the recent form for Poston. A great combo to cash this top 10.
Powers, Golf Digest: Keith Mitchell (+350, DraftKings) — Mitchell has three top 20s in his last five starts and he's an excellent Bermuda putter. Take away the trip across the pond recently and he was just starting to cook.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Denny McCarthy (+400, BetRivers) — McCarthy ranks 12th in the FanShare Sports course-suitability ranking this week, so it’s not surprising to see that he has finished top 22 in his past three visits here. One of the main reasons for this is his excellent putting on Bermuda greens. His form coming in is good too, ranking fourth in the field for SG/total over the last two months.
Top-10 results from the Rocket Mortgage Classic: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Cameron Young +250); Gehman: 1 for 1 (Scott Stallings +500); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Alldrick: 13 for 40 (up 36.5 units); Powers: 12 for 40 (up 28.55 units); Hennessey: 10 for 40 (up 9.95 units); Gehman: 9 for 40 (up 4.7 units); Mayo: 7 for 40 (down 2.4 units); Caddie: 11 for 40 (up 0.5 units); Gdula: 5 for 39 (down 14 units)
Wyndham Championship picks 2022: One and Done
Gehman: Si Woo Kim — With options fleeting at this point in the season, I’m quite thrilled to have Kim available for a few reasons. He offers plenty of upside with three top-15 finishes in his last six starts and he also possesses an excellent record around Sedgefield Country Club. In six trips to Greensboro, he’s earned a win (2016) and has three straight top-five finishes leading into this year. That’s about as good of an option as you can expect to have this late in the season.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Kevin Na; Sanderson Farms Championship: Mito Pereira. Shriners: Abraham Ancer. CJ Cup: Louis Oosthuizen. Zozo Championship: Hideki Matsuyama. Bermuda Championship: Seamus Power. Mayakoba: Abraham Ancer. Houston Open: Sam Burns. RSM Classic: Scottie Scheffler. Sentry TOC: Sungjae Im. Sony Open: Corey Conners. American Express: Talor Gooch. Farmers Insurance Open: Tony Finau. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger. Waste Management Phoenix Open: Viktor Hovland. Genesis Invitational: Xander Schauffele. Honda Classic: Billy Horschel. Arnold Palmer Invitational: Rory McIlroy. Players Championship: Jon Rahm. Valspar Championship: Dustin Johnson. Valero Texas Open: Charley Hoffman. The Masters: Brooks Koepka. RBC Heritage: Patrick Cantlay. Mexico Open: Aaron Wise. Wells Fargo: Matt Fitzpatrick. AT&T Byron Nelson: Justin Thomas. PGA Championship: Jordan Spieth. Charles Schwab Challenge: Max Homa. The Memorial Tournament: Will Zalatoris. RBC Canadian Open: Cameron Smith. U.S. Open: Collin Morikawa. Travelers Championship: Davis Riley. John Deere Classic: Cam Davis. Scottish Open: Tommy Fleetwood. Open Championship: Tyrrell Hatton. 3M Open: Sahith Theegala. Rocket Mortgage Classic: Cameron Young.
Hennessey: J.T. Poston — I’m curious how popular he’ll be in One and Dones this week. If you’re just looking to stay in the money, this feels like a pretty safe pick.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo; Sanderson Farms Championship: Carlos Ortiz. Shriners: Abraham Ancer. CJ Cup: Collin Morikawa. Zozo Championship: Takumi Kanaya. Bermuda Championship: Seamus Power. Mayakoba: Aaron Wise. Houston Open: Sam Burns. RSM Classic: Brendon Todd. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. Sony Open: Marc Leishman. American Express: Sungjae Im. Farmers Insurance Open: Daniel Berger. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Lanto Griffin. Waste Management Phoenix Open: Viktor Hovland. Genesis Invitational: Will Zalatoris. Honda Classic: Russell Knox. Arnold Palmer Invitational: Keith Mitchell. Players Championship: Cameron Smith. Valspar Championship: Shane Lowry. Valero Texas Open: Chris Kirk. The Masters: Justin Thomas. RBC Heritage: Russell Henley. Mexico Open: Gary Woodland. Wells Fargo: Troy Merritt. AT&T Byron Nelson: Jhonattan Vegas. PGA Championship: Scottie Scheffler. Charles Schwab Challenge: Jordan Spieth. The Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm. RBC Canadian Open: Cameron Smith. U.S. Open: Rory McIlroy. Travelers Championship: Joaquin Niemann. John Deere Classic: Webb Simpson. Scottish Open: Matt Fitzpatrick. Open Championship: Xander Schauffele. 3M Open: Sahith Theegala. Rocket Mortgage Classic: Cameron Davis.
Powers: Si Woo Kim — If not for FOMO on a potential Willy Z first win, I'd be all in on Si Woo this week.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Brendan Steele. Sanderson Farms Championship: Mito Pereira. Shriners: Aaron Wise. CJ Cup: Talor Gooch. Zozo Championship: Joaquin Niemann. Bermuda Championship: Patrick Rodgers. Mayakoba: Jhonattan Vegas. Houston Open: Marc Leishman. RSM Classic: Corey Conners. Sentry TOC: Daniel Berger. Sony Open: Kevin Na. American Express: Seamus Power. Farmers Insurance Open: Luke List. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Cameron Tringale. Waste Management Phoenix Open: Bubba Watson. Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott. Honda Classic: Billy Horschel. Arnold Palmer Invitational: Chris Kirk. Players Championship: Xander Schauffele. Valspar Championship: Sam Burns. Valero Texas Open: Charley Hoffman. The Masters: Brooks Koepka. RBC Heritage: Matt Fitzpatrick. Mexico Open: Abraham Ancer. Wells Fargo: Keegan Bradley. AT&T Byron Nelson: Sahith Theegala. PGA Championship: Jordan Spieth. Charles Schwab Challenge: Tommy Fleetwood. The Memorial Tournament: Patrick Reed. RBC Canadian Open: Tyrrell Hatton. U.S. Open: Shane Lowry. Travelers Championship: Davis Riley. John Deere Classic: Scott Stallings. Scottish Open: Viktor Hovland. Open Championship: Will Zalatoris. 3M Open: Maverick McNealy. Rocket Mortgage Classic: Cameron Young.
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long- and short-form content, owner of the Mayo Media Network and host of The Pat Mayo Experience. (Subscribe for video or audio.) Mayo (@ThePME) was named 2021 Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writing Association, while also being a finalist for Podcast of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year. Mayo won the 2020 FSWA Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award in 2020. He was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). Mayo is on the board of governors at www.fantasynational.com.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast.
Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.
Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports started out writing an article highlighting the best bargain plays for fantasy golf under his twitter handle @DKGolfBargains. His success at this prompted FanShare Sports to enlist him as a guest writer, which evolved into him writing the weekly Under The Radar article. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldrick’s insight into European Tour regulars and low priced, low owned plays has provided an invaluable edge for readers when it comes to DFS GPPs.