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Wells Fargo Championship DFS picks 2022: Sergio Garcia's stats paint a brutal picture

May 04, 2022
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The Wells Fargo Championship has a different look. It’ll take place outside North Carolina for the first time in its history—moving from Quail Hollow as the Charlotte venue preps for this year’s Presidents Cup. Instead, we will head to TPC Potomac, which hosted the Quicken Loans National for both 2018 and 2017.

You’ll notice that precision off the tee will lead to success, and the two par 5s on this course are both monsters. It’s likely that TPC Potomac will reward second-shot players, and those who can score on the par 4s.

Here are my favorite plays and fades this week at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Price range: $9,000 and above

High Upside: Tyrrell Hatton ($9,900 DraftKings | $11,300 FanDuel)

Hatton has been impressive for the entirety of 2022. Since the turn of the calendar, Hatton has seven top-25 finishes in 10 worldwide starts. Of those seven top 25s, four of them are top 10s. He plays a volatile style of golf, but when it works, his name graces the top of the leaderboard.

Safest Option: Corey Conners ($10,100 DraftKings | $11,700 FanDuel)

TPC Potomac is going to force golfers to keep their ball in play off the tee and attack via their second shots. That’s the blueprint for Corey Conners, who is gaining 1.06 strokes per round in the ball-striking categories over his last 50 rounds, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. That has resulted in a third-place finish at the Match Play, a sixth-place finish at the Masters and a 12th-place finish in his last start at the RBC Heritage.

Most Likely To Disappoint: Marc Leishman ($9,700 DraftKings | $11,200 FanDuel)

Leishman offers safety, but I worry about his upside. And at this price, I need upside. The last 12 events for Leishman have produced exactly one top-10 finish, and that was a T-10 at the short-field Tournament of Champions in January. Leishman ranks 53rd in this field in strokes gained/total over the past 24 rounds, and when you combine that with the perceived lack up of upside … I’ll pass.

Pick To Win: Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,000 DraftKings | $11,600 FanDuel)

Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

I’m happy to look past the MC for Fitzpatrick at the RBC Heritage, where he lost 3.27 strokes putting. That was the second-worst putting event of his career, per the RickRunGood.com golf database, and that’s unlikely to happen again. He still has five top-15 finishes in seven starts this season and doesn’t have any major flaws in his game. This is an exciting time to invest in Fitzpatrick.

$8,000 to $9,000

High Upside: Cameron Young ($8,000 DraftKings | $10,100 FanDuel)

Young is proving that he can create fireworks at any type of course. He finished runner-up at Riviera and T-3 at Harbour Town, two completely different courses, over his past seven starts. That’s five top-20 finishes in his past nine starts, with little sign of slowing down anytime soon.

Safest Option: Max Homa ($8,600 DraftKings | $10,600 FanDuel)

I find Max Homa to be both “safe” and “volatile.” From a results perspective, he’s made seven cuts in a row, including five top-25 finishes. However, he’s really struggled in the short game, and he’s leaving a lot of strokes on the table. If he can find a “pop” putting week, he could be very dangerous.

Most Likely To Disappoint: Sergio Garcia ($8,700 DraftKings | $10,200 FanDuel)

It’s difficult to assess the state of Garcia’s game at the moment. Outside of the Masters, he’s lost strokes on approach in four straight events. That’s a terrifying stat to see for one of the game’s best ball-strikers. He needs that part of his game to be sharp to have a chance at making the weekend.

Pick To Win: Seamus Power ($8,300 DraftKings | $10,300 FanDuel)

Ben Jared/PGA TOUR/Getty Images

Power broke out of a mini-slump with a T-33 at the Players Championship and had great finishes in his two starts after—a T-5 at the Match Play and T-27 at the Masters. He’s incredibly accurate off the tee, hitting over 65 percent of his fairways this season, and he’s no stranger to the top of the leaderboard with four top-10 finishes this season.

$7,000 to $8,000

High Upside: Brandon Wu ($7,500 DraftKings | $9,100 FanDuel)

Let’s forget that he shot the course record on Sunday and finished T-2. Prior to that, he had four straight top-35 finishes, including a T-3 in Puerto Rico. Now add in last week’s finish, and we easily have the best five tournament stretch of Wu’s young career. He’s starting to get more comfortable on this circuit, and the results are going to continue to improve.

Safest Option: Joel Dahmen ($7,600 DraftKings | $9,300 FanDuel)

Dahmen, the tactician, should be thrilled to see TPC Potomac on the schedule. He’s top 20 on tour in terms of driving accuracy, and with long difficult par 5s this week, that actually levels the playing field for some of the shorter hitters. Dahmen has made the cut in seven of his past eight starts and should be considered “safe” to make the weekend again in Maryland.

Most Likely To Disappoint: Russell Knox ($7,300 DraftKings | $8,900 FanDuel)

Knox is a renowned approach player, but we haven’t seen that recently. For the season, Knox gains about 0.56 strokes on approach per round. Over his past five measured starts, he’s exactly even, 0.00 SG/total, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. That’s really concerning when a golfer strays from their DNA.

Pick To Win: Matt Kuchar ($7,900 DraftKings | $9,900 FanDuel)

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Kuchar has found something in his game right now, earning back-to-back top-three finishes and three straight top 20s. If this was played at Quail Hollow, I’d be concerned—but TPC Potomac asks for precision and finesse. It’s arguably one of the better setups for him, and it couldn’t come at a better time.

$6,900 and below

High Upside: Tyler Duncan ($6,900 DraftKings | $8,300 FanDuel)

The fifth-most accurate driver on tour arrives at a setup that should benefit his game. Duncan isn’t a one-trick pony, either—he gains strokes off the tee, on approach and around the greens. This might be the last time we can use Duncan for a while, so have at it!

Safest Option: Peter Malnati ($6,600 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel)

I’m not sure I’ve ever described Malnati as “safe” before, but he’s made four of his past five cuts. His short game has been stout, as usual, but he’s also gained multiple strokes on approach in each of his last two. That’s the part of his game that could unlock big success.

Most Likely To Disappoint: Danny Lee ($6,700 DraftKings | $7,900 FanDuel)

Few are more inaccurate off the tee than Danny Lee. He currently ranks outside the top 170 on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy (out of 209 qualified golfers). It's been five starts since his last made cut, and he doesn’t have a top 20 since November.

Pick To Win: Austin Smotherman ($6,800 DraftKings | $8,200 FanDuel)

Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images

We just have to go back to Smotherman this week. He finished T-67 in Mexico last week, but with his ball-striking prowess, this should be a better setup for him. He’s gained strokes on approach in six straight measured events, and he’s flashed more brilliance than his similarly priced peers.

Rick Gehman, founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.