Science Says
November 16, 2020

Apparently that Kyler Murray Hail Mary was only the third most improbable completion of his career

By now, you’ve seen it a million times. Kyler Murray scampering right, flicking it across his body, 50 yards, a perfect freaking spiral. If you close your eyes, you’ll see DeAndre Hopkins going up and getting it, spitting three Bills defensive backs with a leap that should get slapped on the NFL crest a la Jerry West. But go ahead and watch it again. It can’t possibly hurt (well, unless you’re a Bills fan)

Incredible. Improbable. Impossible. Except not quite. In fact, as NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport pointed out on Monday, according to this pesky little thing called statistics, Murray's hail mary heave was only the third most improbable completion of his career.

Now listen, Kyler Murray does lots of crazy things on a weekly basis. In fact, we’re willing to bet he is the single most fun football player to watch on the entire planet right now, Patrick Mahomes be damned. But the fact that this play—the millionth dagger in a perpetual onslaught of Buffalo Bills daggers over the years—only takes home the bronze metal of brilliance is frankly hard to compute (no really, we’re not great at math.)

Even more unthinkably, it’s not even close to the most odds-defying completion in recent NFC West memory. That honor belongs to Mr. Unlimited himself, who logged this 6.3 percenter back in October of 2019.

That was in the first quarter from the 13-yard line, however. Kyler heaved his from midfield to (ostensibly) walk-it-off. We can argue all day long about which is better, but there is one way to settle it for good: Cardinals vs. Seahawks, Thursday night, 8:20 p.m. LFG.