124th U.S. Open

Pinehurst No. 2

The Loop

Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett combined for NFL's "most improbable" completion, because football nerds say so

October 04, 2019

Football fans who don't root for the Rams got quite the treat on Thursday Night Football (so hot right now) as Russell Wilson put on an absolute show. Forget that his passer rating was only 151.8 (out of 158.3), because the Seahawks quarterback played a perfect game in taking down the defending NFC champs. And a newfangled stat makes his first of four touchdown tosses even more impressive.

A few weeks back, we brought you a new baseball stat called ERA on turf, which was we rightly ridiculed because A.) WTF, and B.) Lance Lynn led the majors with a minimum of 19 innings. Sick! But the NFL's Next Gen Stats have that one topped. Introducing IMPROBABLE COMPLETIONS. Yes, this is a real thing.

First, a look at the play in question, which anyone watching realized was out of this world without any number crunchers. So much so in fact that Troy Aikman questioned whether Wilson was trying to throw the ball away. And during the halftime show—when Fox wasn't promoting WWE—Terry Bradshaw AND Michael Strahan insisted that's what Wilson was doing. Meanwhile, if you watch the guy play on a weekly basis, you know this was planned. He was looking right at Tyler Lockett in the back of the end zone. And Russell Wilson is a freaking magician. Anyway, check it out for yourself:

Amazing. Now for the nerdery and I say that out of love, because I like stats as the next guy—especially when they pump up my man Russ, who is a national treasure. According to Next Gen Stats, that play only had a 6.3-percent chance of working, making it the MOST IMPROBABLE completion of the past two seasons in the NFL.

OK then. . . Good stuff, guys. And good stuff, Russ. My 26-to-1 bet on you winning MVP is certainly looking a lot less IMPROBABLE after that performance. Although, a Patrick Mahomes injury would help. Not that I would ever root for that. I'm too good of a guy. But maybe the Chiefs should shut him down to save his energy for the playoffs? Just a thought. . .

Anyway, Next Gen Stats goes on to say a Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown (Remember him?) connection is the most improbably completion in the NEXT GEN STATS ERA.

Don't argue. It's science.