Betting Analysis

Genesis Scottish Open picks 2023: Tyrrell Hatton is due

July 12, 2023
NORTH BERWICK, SCOTLAND - JULY 11: Tyrrell Hatton of England looks on from the 10th green during a practice round prior to the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club on July 11, 2023 in United Kingdom. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

After a rare respite from big-time events on this season's PGA Tour schedule, we're all the way back these next two weeks, starting with the Genesis Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club.

It's a major-like field the week before a major, though that won't make it any easier to handicap. Are the marquee guys here to win, or just here for an Open Championship tuneup ahead of Royal Liverpool next week?

Our experts seem to believe one of the top favorites is not only here to win, but he's due for a win. 

Scroll down for our full analysis on who we like this week (and why) at the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open.

Genesis Scottish Open picks 2023: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions

Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Tommy Fleetwood (22-1, BetMGM) — Tommy will surely enter this week with a ton of confidence off the T-5 at the U.S. Open, sparked by that final-round 63. He’s been close to a win for a while, and he knows this is a perfect spot for him—site of the runner-up in 2020 and the fourth-place last year.

Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Patrick Cantlay (14-1, DraftKings) — Cantlay rallied from the pack to challenge down the stretch last year, and enters this season with the consistent tee-to-green game required at Renaissance Club. Following his T-4 at the Travelers, he’s now gained at least six strokes tee-to-green in eight of his past 10 starts while gaining on the greens in seven of eight.

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Tyrrell Hatton (18-1, FanDuel) — Hatton has a great overall game with both ball-striking and short-game stats that rank him in the top 15 in the field over the past 50 rounds, per datagolf. Combine that with great current form and good course knowledge (three top-25 finishes in as many tries), and he’s a good name to back.

Rick Gehman, data scientist and founder: Tommy Fleetwood (22-1, BetMGM) — Fleetwood missed the cut at the Travelers Championship in his last start but has been rolling right along prior to that finish. He earned a T-5 at the U.S. Open and runner-up at the Canadian Open. He has four top-five finishes in his last nine stroke-play events. He’s been excellent from tee-to-green, gaining +1.58 strokes per round in his last 24 rounds—the fifth-best mark in this field, per the golf database. He’s also been dynamite at The Renaissance Club—finishing runner-up in 2020, T-26 in 2021 and T-4 last year.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Jordan Spieth (25-1, DraftKings) — Spieth’s links record is built different. The 2017 champion at Birkdale boasts four other top-10s at The Open, plus he finished T-10 at the Renaissance Club last year. His creativity and shot-making just really shine. I liked him at LACC for those reasons, but let’s hope these elite driving numbers we saw at the U.S. Open and the Memorial translate over here, which will put him in a great position to get his first win of the season.

Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Tyrrell Hatton (18-1, FanDuel) — Hard to believe he’s yet to win this season when you look at his numbers, particularly the putting numbers. The man gains strokes every week on the greens, which usually leads to multiple wins when you hit it as well as he’s been hitting it, too. Maybe a late-season explosion is on the horizon for Hatton. Would be timely if it came across the pond, this week or next, for the Englishman.

Andy Lack, and Inside Golf podcast: Tyrrell Hatton (18-1, FanDuel) — Like CP said, it’s hard to believe Hatton has yet to find his way into the winner’s circle this year, but I believe that changes this week in North Berwick. Hatton is coming off another solid ball-striking performance at the U.S. Open, and he has gained strokes ball-striking in every single start this season. He’s also firing on all cylinders with the flat stick, gaining over a stroke putting in seven straight starts. With 15 made cuts, 10 top-30 finishes, and seven top-10 finishes in 16 starts, Hatton continues to knock on the door. The Renaissance Club presents a unique opportunity for the fiery Englishman, and he has finished top 25 in all three appearances at the Tom Doak design.

Past results: As we head into summer, the panel remains as hot as ever, with 12 outright victories on the year as a group. Pat Mayo just picked up his first of the season, nailing Rickie Fowler’s comeback win at the Rocket Mortgage at 14-1. Rick Gehman was on Fowler, too, giving him two outright hits on the year. Brandon Gdula leads the way with SIX of his own, his most recent coming at the U.S. Open where Gdula touted Wyndham Clark at 85-1 (!!).

Genesis Scottish Open picks 2023: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win

Caddie: Tom Kim (70-1, PointsBet) — Tom had that hot Sunday last year, emerging onto the global scene with that third-place finish. He’s showing more form lately, and it wouldn’t surprise anybody if he contends here again—so these odds are intriguing.

Mayo: Kurt Kitayama (110-1, DraftKings) — While not quite in the Ricky Bobby zone of first or last, Kitayama’s getting there. He enters with nothing but bad form (three straight missed cuts) but Scotland sets up perfectly for his game. That game? Wind-infused coastal tracks or slow greens. Renaissance Club has both.

Gdula: Ryan Fox (70-1, FanDuel) — Fox has some great recent form and an overall balanced profile. The distance he can add off the tee can certainly help him this week.

Gehman: Yannik Paul (200-1, DraftKings) — Paul has been steadily climbing the world rankings for over two years and is capable of making noise across the globe. His recent highlights have been a T-8 at the British Masters and T-3 at the Scandinavian Mixed. When he’s going well, he’s capable of gaining 10-plus strokes to the field from tee-to-green, which will be critical around The Renaissance Club.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Justin Rose (50-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — The Englishman’s form is elite, recording four top-12 finishes in his past five starts. He continues to flash a well-rounded game, gaining across the board in all the major categories, per It bodes well for him next week, and maybe he adds win No. 2 of the season.

Powers, Golf Digest: Robert MacIntyre (110-1, DraftKings) — Bob Mac at the DP World Tour event firmly in his grasp this past Sunday before a disastrous triple bogey late on the back nine all but ended his chances. Still, he finished T-4, his fifth finish of T-18 or better in his last 10 starts worldwide. Of course, all of those are on the DPWT, where the fields have only gotten weaker in 2023, but between the strong form and the fact he’s playing on home soil, it’s hard to pass on him in triple-digit territory.

Lack: Sam Burns (60-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I’m typically not a huge Sam Burns guy, but I absolutely love the spot for him this week. Burns is quietly playing a lot better than his results would indicate, and he has now gained over 1.5 strokes on approach in three straight starts, which is not typically a strength of his game. Burns is also one of the most trustable putters in this field, particularly inside 10 feet, which is always a challenge at the Renaissance Club. It should not come as a surprise either that he has back to back top-seven finishes at the other Tom Doak design on the PGA Tour, Memorial Park. With some added motivation due to his Ryder Cup spot in jeopardy, I expect the recent WGC-Match Play winner to show up in Scotland.

Genesis Scottish Open picks 2023: Players We’re Fading

Caddie: Rickie Fowler (16-1, BetRivers) — The golf world has shown universal admiration for Rickie’s turnaround, and rightfully so. I just think next week will be circled much bigger on his calendar.

Mayo: Viktor Hovland (18-1, DraftKings) — Links style courses require a certain amount of creativity around the greens, and here’s VIK just starting to wrap his mind around chipping in general.

Gdula: Matt Fitzpatrick (22-1, FanDuel) — Fitzpatrick’s win odds are 22-1 largely due to his great form at Renaissance Club. His recent finishes overall have been boosted by some putting and wedge play, masking some okay ball-striking. It’s not that he can’t win; it’s that the odds are too short.

Gehman: Max Homa (35-1, DraftKings) — Homa’s game has proven inconsistent over the past few months. He’s earned two top-10 finishes in his last nine starts but he offsets those with four missed cuts. His usually reliable short-game has cost him strokes to the field in three straight events and that aspect of his game will be critical this week around The Renaissance Club.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Max Homa (35-1, DraftKings) — There’ve been some struggles for Homa with four MCs in his past eight starts. And on links courses, as our friend @PGASplits101 has documented, Homa gains the least amount of strokes among the top end of the odds board. I’ll be looking to play against Homa this week.

Powers, Golf Digest: Wyndham Clark (35-1, DraftKings) — Love Wyndy C, and he should be priced among the big boys as U.S. Open champion, but he finally lost on approach at the Travelers and he’s due for a serious putting regression.

Lack: Rory McIlroy (+700, FanDuel) — I play Rory McIlroy nearly every week, and given his five top 10s in a row, it may be foolish to suddenly buck that strategy. This still feels like a bit of a lookahead spot for the four-time major winner, with a return to Royal Liverpool, the site of his third major victory, on the horizon. McIlroy is surely going to be more in the mindset of fine tuning his game, while not expending too much energy before his final opportunity of the year to end his nine-year major drought. Rory has too high of a floor to completely combust this week, but I would not expect more than a middling finish at the Renaissance Club.

Genesis Scottish Open picks 2023: Matchups

Caddie: Min Woo Lee (-120) over Justin Thomas (DraftKings) — Min Woo loves this course, and JT doesn’t have the same good results on links courses.

Mayo: Tom Kim (-110) over Lucas Herbert (DraftKings) — There is certainly something about this course and Herbert with his two top-five finishes the past three years, but zooming out on his game shows a lot of flaws at the moment. Since beginning his year on the PGA Tour in Phoenix, he’s picked up just one finish inside the top 40 of any stroke-play event. Sure, he won the ISPS Handa in Australia back in April but that was against much less competition. Herbert did finish T-15 at the Travelers in his last start, but that was on the back of +6.7 SG/putting performance. Tom Kim’s been struggling himself, but he’s just in a different class than the Aussie.

Gdula: Max Homa (+100) over Min Woo Lee (FOX Bet) — Lee’s irons are pretty poor lately. The win at Renaissance Club has his odds too short here with Homa playing better than perception.

Gehman: Min Woo Lee (-120) over Max Homa (Bet365) — Min Woo Lee found victory at this event in 2021 and his game is sharp again heading into the 2023 edition. He’s gained strokes off-the-tee in six straight events, notching four top-18 finishes during that run. I have questions about Homa’s skill set on a links style golf course and he’s running into a confident opponent in this matchup.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Wyndham Clark (-120) over Max Homa (DraftKings) — Clark’s game is in a much better spot than Homa, as documented with my fade of Homa above. Clark also has a top-20 finish at The Renaissance Club last year.

Powers, Golf Digest: Max Homa (+100) over Wyndham Clark (DraftKings) — I might as well put my money where my mouth is and target Clark in a matchup, as I do believe he’s due for a regression on the greens. Homa, meanwhile, responded to back-to-back missed cuts with a +4.6 SG/approach performance at the Rocket Mortgage, where he tied for 21st.

Lack: Tom Kim (-110) over Lucas Herbert (DraftKings) — I am genuinely pretty surprised that these two players are matched up against each other, as I do not view them as in the same tier from a talent perspective. I understand Herbert’s intriguing course history, but he’s still missed three of his last four cuts and does not remotely possess the ball-striking upside of his counterpart in Kim. The young two-time PGA Tour winner has had a bit of a disappointing season, but I firmly believe that he is on the upswing, and he should be more than comfortable back at the Renaissance Club, where he finished third place last year, gaining over five strokes ball-striking and four strokes putting.

Matchup Results from the John Deere Classic: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Bezuidenhout (-110) over Montgomery); Gehman: 1 for 1 (Cole (-110) over An); Lack: 1 for 1 (Smalley (-110) over Power); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Kirk (+100) over Grillo); Gdula: PUSH (Jaeger (-118) over Power); Powers: 0 for 1; Caddie: 0 for 1

Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Hennessey: 22-13-1 (up 7.62 units); Gehman: 21-13-2 (up 6.37 units); Powers: 19-15-2 (up 3.81 units); Lack: 14-11-1 (up 1.41 units); Caddie: 17-16-3 (up 0.11 units); Gdula: 15-19-2 (down 6.23 units); Mayo: 13-20-0 (down 7.4 units)

Genesis Scottish Open picks 2023: Top 10s

Caddie: Aaron Rai (+550, DraftKings) — The Englishman is quietly playing very solid golf and comes back to a venue and a tour where he’s comfortable. I love this spot to continue his great form.

Mayo: Alexander Bjork (+900, DraftKings) — Top 10s are his jam the past three months, picking up four in a row and six in his last seven DP World Tour starts. Yes, it’s a big leap in field strength, however, he’s made the cut at Renaissance Club in all four starts. The Swede currently leads all players on the DPWT in scoring average for the year, while sitting third in SG/approach.

Gdula: Wyndham Clark (+360, FanDuel) — Clark has the distance to get a leg up this week, and he is one of the best iron players in the field lately, too. The short game he’s displayed lately should suggest an ability to get up-and-down and put himself in contention.

Gehman: Aaron Rai (+550, DraftKings) — Rai won this event in 2020 when it was played as a DP World Tour event and his form right now provides plenty of optimism. He finished T-3 in Canada and T-9 in Detroit—the best finishes during a stretch of five events where he has earned four top 25s. His putter is cooperating, gaining strokes in three straight starts for the first time in nearly a year. There should be plenty of confidence for Rai when he steps on the grounds this week.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Alexander Bjork (+900, DraftKings) — Bjork has six top-10 finishes in his past seven starts on the DP World Tour, and though he’s not a name American golf fans are as familiar with, he’ll be a somewhat popular play in DFS lineups—and rightfully so at $7,300 on DraftKings.

Powers, Golf Digest: Gary Woodland (+800, DraftKings) — No matter how much money I lose on him, I’ll never quit Gary Woodland. You’d think he’d have a better record across the pond given his stinger prowess and the slow green speeds that should, theoretically, mitigate his awful putting. Alas, that has not been the case. That said, he did manage a top-30 finish here last year, and his irons are too hot to ignore right now. The former U.S. Open champ has gained at least four strokes on approach in four of his last six starts. Please, Gary, for the love of God, just hole a few putts this week. One time.

Lack: Alex Noren (+650, DraftKings) — While he really struggled at times to begin the season, Alex Noren is starting to play some much better golf. The Swede is coming off a ninth at the Rocket Mortgage where he gained 4.7 strokes on approach and five strokes putting. A 30th-place finish here last year, and a fourth at the Tom Doak designed Memorial Park leave me feeling encouraged that Noren is more than capable of handling these challenging green complexes in the wind. While he is undeniably on the outside looking in for a European Ryder Cup spot, a strong performance this week would go a long way.

Top-10 results from the John Deere Classic: Gehman: 1 for 1 (Lucas Glover +600); Lack: 1 for 1 (Alex Smalley +400); Everybody else: 0 for 1

Top-10 results from this season: Gehman: 11 for 36 (up 20.1 units); Hennessey: 7 for 36 (up 6.95 units); Gdula: 9 for 36 (up 6.2 units); Lack: 8 for 26 (up 6.4 units); Mayo: 7 for 33 (down 1.3 units); Caddie: 8 for 36 (down 2.4 units); Powers: 4 for 36 (down 9.9 units)

Genesis Scottish Open picks 2023: One and Done

Gehman: Matt Fitzpatrick — It’s been a strange year for Fitzpatrick but his recent play has been solid. He’s earned three top 20s in his last four starts and he’s back to playing a well-rounded style of golf. He’s also done everything but win at The Renaissance Club, earning three top-14 finishes in his last four trips and never missing the cut here. That translates to 1.90 strokes per round, the most of any golfer with at least 16 rounds at this course – per the golf database.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo. Sanderson Farms Championship: Sam Burns. Shriners: Taylor Montgomery. Zozo: Sungjae Im. CJ Cup: Matt Fitzpatrick. Bermuda: Denny McCarthy. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. Houston Open: Aaron Wise. RSM Classic: Brian Harman. Sentry TOC: Cameron Young. Sony Open: Hideki Matsuyama. American Express: Brian Harman. Farmers: Jason Day. AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. WMPO: Scottie Scheffler. Genesis: Justin Thomas. Honda: Sungjae Im. API: Rory McIlroy. Players: Jon Rahm. Valspar: Justin Rose. WGC-Match Play: Cameron Young. Valero: Rickie Fowler. Masters: Jordan Spieth. RBC Heritage: Collin Morikawa. Zurich: Kurt Kitayama. Mexico Open: Ben Martin. Wells Fargo: Viktor Hovland. Byron Nelson: K.H. Lee. PGA Championship: Xander Schauffele. Charles Schwab Challenge: Min Woo Lee. Memorial: Patrick Cantlay. RBC Canadian Open: Tyrrell Hatton. U.S. Open: Brooks Koepka. Travelers: Tony Finau. Rocket Mortgage: Cameron Davis. John Deere: Denny McCarthy.

Hennessey: Min Woo Lee — Strong recent form coupled with the fabulous history will make Min Woo a somewhat chalky play this week, I’m sure.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Cam Davis. Sanderson Farms Championship: Denny McCarthy. Shriners: Emiliano Grillo. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Sungjae Im. Bermuda: Mark Hubbard. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. Houston Open: Jason Day. RSM Classic: Brendon Todd. Sentry TOC: Patrick Cantlay. Sony Open: Matt Kuchar. American Express: Brian Harman. Farmers: Will Zalatoris. AT&T Pebble Beach: Seamus Power. WMPO: Collin Morikawa. Genesis: Justin Thomas. Honda: Chris Kirk. API: Keith Mitchell. Players: Rory McIlroy. Valspar: Adam Hadwin. WGC-Match Play: Tyrrell Hatton. Valero: Nick Taylor. Masters: Scottie Scheffler. RBC Heritage: Jordan Spieth. Zurich: Sahith Theegala. Mexico Open: Gary Woodland. Wells Fargo: Xander Schauffele. Byron Nelson: Tyrrell Hatton. PGA Championship: Jon Rahm. Charles Schwab Challenge: Justin Rose. Memorial: Corey Conners. RBC Canadian Open: Tommy Fleetwood. U.S. Open: Max Homa. Travelers: Tom Kim. Rocket Mortgage: Rickie Fowler. John Deere: Adam Schenk.

Powers: Adam Scott — Scott has had plenty of success on links style golf courses in the past and no one would be surprised if that continued over the next two weeks. The Aussie has quietly placed inside the top 20 in four of his last six starts.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Sahith Theegala. Sanderson Farms Championship: J.T. Poston. Shriners: Sungjae Im. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Tyrrell Hatton. Bermuda: Russell Knox. Mayakoba: Thomas Detry. Houston Open: Sepp Straka. RSM Classic: Davis Riley. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. Sony Open: Gary Woodland. American Express: Cameron Young. Farmers: Taylor Montgomery. AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. WMPO: Sungjae Im. Genesis: Collin Morikawa. Honda: Chris Kirk. API: Will Zalatoris. Players: Patrick Cantlay. Valspar: Justin Suh. WGC-Match Play: Tom Kim. Valero: Matt Kuchar. Masters: Tony Finau. RBC Heritage: Rickie Fowler. Zurich: Robby Shelton. Mexico Open: Luke List. Wells Fargo: Viktor Hovland. Byron Nelson: Tom Hoge. PGA Championship: Brooks Koepka. Charles Schwab Challenge: Tommy Fleetwood. Memorial: Shane Lowry. RBC Canadian Open: Justin Rose. U.S. Open: Dustin Johnson. Travelers: Tom Kim. Rocket Mortgage: Ludvig Aberg. John Deere: Denny McCarthy.

About our experts

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.

Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.

Rick Gehman is the founder of and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.

Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also a data analyst and writer for, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports