Betting Analysis

BMW Championship picks 2023: It's time to buy low on Scottie Scheffler

August 15, 2023
MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE - AUGUST 11: Scottie Scheffler watches his putt on the 12th green during the second round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind on August 11, 2023 in Memphis, Tennessee. (Photo by Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

With just two events left in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, it's put up or shut up time. And we're not referring to the players looking to make it to East Lake, or the ones vying for a Ryder Cup spot.

No, it's put up or shut up time for us, the panel you come to for all your golf betting needs. We're proud of the year we've had so far, but we'd love to pad our stats starting this week at Olympia Fields, where a 50-man field full of elites will face a tough test if the 2020 edition of the BMW Championship is any indication. That week, four under got you into a playoff, and two over was good enough for a top 10. We're talking U.S. Open-kinda hard, though players are already saying that the North Course is much softer this year, which will make it more gettable. 

That said, it'll make it longer, too, which is why our experts are eyeing bombers who can keep it in the fairway.

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Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2023 BMW Championship.

BMW Championship picks 2023: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions

Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Viktor Hovland (16-1, DraftKings) — Hovland has played too well all season to only have one win. He’ll keep it in the tree lines and hit tight approaches–just like he did at Muirfield Village.

Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Xander Schauffele (16-1, DraftKings) — Normally one of the best drivers on the planet, there’s a pretty glaring trend with his off-the-tee numbers this season. He’s lost with his driver four times in 2023, and three of those were horrendous -3 SG/off-the-tee performances or worse. The courses? TPC Southwind, Bay Hill and Sawgrass — places with ubiquitous water. There are water hazards at Olympia Fields, but it’s not everywhere you look. Good enough reason for me to suspect a rebound from the X man.

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Tyrrell Hatton (25-1, FanDuel) — The T-43 last week for Hatton came with poor wedges and putting, which is an uncharacteristic outing for Hatton. The irons are locked in, and he’s longer off the tee than you probably realize. That’s a great combo for this week at Olympia Fields.

Rick Gehman, data scientist and founder: Rory McIlroy (+850, Bet365) — Olympia Fields has a lot of Oak Hill in it, especially off the tee. It will require an elite skill set on the first shot – either extreme distance or extreme accuracy. McIlroy has the former and he has compiled eight consecutive top-10 finishes. His stat profile is both impressive and sustainable. He’s gained 10-plus strokes from tee-to-green in half of those previous eight starts while gaining strokes with the putter in all of them, per the golf database.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Rory McIlroy (+850, Bet365) — As Rick Gehman pointed out in his DFS column at, for the first time in a long time, Scottie Scheffler has been surpassed for top iron player in the field. That title would go to Rory McIlroy, who’s gaining 2.58 strokes on approach per round over his past 36. Combine that with his prolific driving, and you have a formula that can solve the difficult ball-striking test that Olympia Fields presents.

Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Jordan Spieth (30-1, FanDuel) — Based on the historical perception of Jordan Spieth, a golf course like Olympia Fields that requires “long and straight” off the tee is the last place you should bet him. But the stats show that Spieth has been excellent off-the-tee this year, and it was actually his approach play that held him back last week at St. Jude, where he managed a T-6 despite losing 1.4 strokes with his irons. That was only the third time in his last 12 measured starts where that’s happened, so I expect a bounce back on approach for the three-time major champ. This number is simply too good to pass up off of a strong performance in Memphis.

Andy Lack, and Inside Golf podcast: Scottie Scheffler (+700, FanDuel) — It’s hard to imagine the last time we had a legitimate buy-low spot with Scottie Scheffler, but after back-to-back finishes outside of the top 20, here we are! In his worst finish of the season last week (T-31), he still gained over 1.5 strokes in both ball-striking categories. If this is Scheffler’s floor, I will gladly take the opportunity to buy the dip. The advantage that Scheffler has over the field on a week-to-week basis due to his elite ball-striking should be heightened even further on a track such as Olympia Fields. He remains the No. 1 driver of the ball and the No. 1 iron player in this field by a healthy margin. Where Scheffler is able to separate himself from some of the other great ball-strikers in this field, such as Rahm, Rory and Viktor Hovland, is that he has the best short game of that bunch. Scheffler’s elite around-the-green play will be far more prevalent this week on a course which has such a low greens-in-regulation percentage. The fact that Scheffler has not been able to capitalize with more trophies during one of the best ball-striking runs that the game has ever seen still feels unfair, and Olympia Fields is the perfect spot for him to secure his seventh PGA Tour victory.

Past results: As we head into leg two of the playoffs, the panel remains as hot as ever, with 13 outright victories on the year as a group. Stephen Hennessey is our most recent winner, nailing Lucas Glover’s Wyndham Championship victory at 80-1 (!). Pat Mayo recently picked up his first of the season, cashing on Rickie Fowler’s comeback win at the Rocket Mortgage at 14-1. Rick Gehman was on Fowler, too, giving him two outright hits on the year. Brandon Gdula leads the way with SIX of his own, his last coming in the U.S. Open where Gdula touted Wyndham Clark at 85-1 (!!).

BMW Championship picks 2023: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win

Caddie: Tony Finau (35-1, FanDuel) — I realize Finau hasn’t done much over the last half of the season. But he did contend at Rocket Mortgage, and he can still separate himself with his distance and a hot putter. He knows he’s in danger of missing the Ryder Cup, and the guy is used to playing with his back against the wall.

Mayo: Byeong Hun An (40-1, DraftKings) — If I asked you who the top five drivers on tour are at the moment, you’d get most, then whiff on Ben An. Although he can be inconsistent with his irons, the driver is dialed in. When you’re searching for the non-elites in this field you need to find those with a few elite skills — driving and around the green for An — and recent form and viability on difficult courses. We all know An can putt himself out of a tournament, so if we can dodge that (he’s been better recently for what it’s worth) he can actually build on his 2020 Olympia Fields performance this time around (T-12).

Gdula: Keegan Bradley (65-1, FanDuel) — The short game has cooled off for Bradley both with putting and wedges the past two events, but his season-long putting splits from within 15 feet are great, so that should bounce back. We can take advantage of the odds this week.

Gehman: J.T. Poston (70-1, DraftKings) — I worry that Poston might struggle if he cannot keep his ball in the fairway, but it’s hard to argue with the results that he’s been compiling. He has four top-seven finishes in his last six starts alone and is proving to be one of the hottest putters on tour. He’ll need to separate himself from fairway through green this week, but that’s firmly in the range of outcomes.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Emiliano Grillo (91-1, Bet365) — It’s funny … as I walked around Olympia Fields in May, I couldn’t help but think how good of a fit Emiliano Grillo is for this place. It’s a true sign that I’m a golf sicko. But seriously … he’s one of the more impressive iron players and is finally combining that with some signs of short-game life. I’m not sure he’ll win, but if he contends come the weekend, this would be a nice ticket to have.

Powers, Golf Digest: Sungjae Im (45-1, FanDuel) — Hardly a pure longshot but in a 50-man field this is as good of a longshot as you’re going to get. Not only has he gained strokes off-the-tee in six straight measured events, but Im gained 2.3 strokes on approach last week at TPC Southwind, his second-best output in the last three months. He’s trending in a big way and he’s long overdue for a dub.

Lack: Justin Rose (60-1, FanDuel) — After a slow start in Memphis, Justin Rose rebounded nicely last week to find himself in the top 20 by Sunday thanks to a course record 61 on Friday. Hoping to round into form ahead of next week’s festivities in Rome, it was a rock-solid performance from the former U.S. champion who had previously missed his last two cuts. Now, Rose travels to the type of golf course that he has performed well at countless times in the past. A simple reference to his ninth-place finish at Oak Hill, as well as wins and multiple high-end finishes at Torrey Pines, display a player that thrives on firm and fast golf courses with thick rough and narrow fairways. I expect Rose to build upon his momentum from last week and find his way into the mix come Sunday afternoon in Chicago.

BMW Championship picks 2023: Players We’re Fading

Caddie: Tommy Fleetwood (18-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — A tight tree-lined parkland layout doesn’t seem like the right venue for Tommy Lad. It’s a dangerous fade because he’s been playing so well, but so has the rest of the favorites.

Mayo: Collin Morikawa (25-1, DraftKings) — If your short game and putting aren’t elite, the irons need to be in the 99th-percentile to contend for a win at a course which demands distance.

Gdula: Viktor Hovland (16-1, FanDuel) — Hovland’s playing well but doesn’t have a ton of distance to the point that he has a big edge this week. A lot of names are in play, but Hovland looks like the most overvalued at 16-1.

Gehman: Xander Schauffele (16-1, DraftKings) — This is a steep price for a top-end player who hasn’t shown as much life as his peers recently. Schauffele has been pedestrian from tee-to-green in three of his last four starts and hasn’t taken advantage of his best weeks. The last time he broke into the top 10 was at the Wells Fargo Championship, eight starts ago.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Tyrrell Hatton (22-1, DraftKings) — The Englishman was very off last week, and I don’t see this being the type of course where he can find it.

Powers, Golf Digest: Scottie Scheffler (+700, FanDuel) — If anybody can flip it on a dime it’s Scheffler, but he’s now had two consecutive “down” weeks for him and the putter remained cold last week in steamy Memphis.

Lack: Jordan Spieth (30-1, FanDuel) — I was high on Jordan Spieth in Memphis last week, and while he did finish in the top 10, the eye test didn’t rule in his favor. The three-time major winner was spraying it all over the yard, finding water on numerous occasions and using his typical short game magic to get out of compromising positions time and again. I think his luck will run dry this week, as Spieth does not have the strongest history on golf courses in the same vein as Olympia Fields.

BMW Championship picks 2023: Matchups

Caddie: Corey Conners (-110) over Brian Harman (DraftKings) — This is a long golf course for the left-hander. Give me Conners’ ball-striking here over the Open champion.

Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (-120) over Collin Morikawa (DraftKings) — Finally, a market where T-3 should be good enough to get return on Tommy money.

Gdula: Wyndham Clark (-110) over Jason Day (FanDuel) — Clark is a lot longer off the tee than Day, and he’s the much better iron player right now. Day keeps the long-term data close thanks to his chipping, but that’s not enough here. Clark is the value.

Gehman: Russell Henley (-125) over Wyndham Clark (Bet365) — Henley quietly posted another excellent finish last week, a T-6 in Memphis to help ease the pain of his runner-up finish at the Wyndham Championship. He can play to his DNA this week and find success, since he’s such an accurate driver and elite approach player. We’re not asking much from Henley this week, just keep doing what he’s been doing for the last few months.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Tommy Fleetwood (-105) over Xander Schauffele (FanDuel) — Tommy might not be incredibly accurate off the tee, but he’s actually more accurate than Xander off the tee over the past 36 rounds, per Fleetwood has also gained more strokes than Xander off the tee as well, which I think will be key at Olympia Fields.

Powers, Golf Digest: Byeong Hun An (-110) over Tony Finau (DraftKings) — Went against Tony last week in this space and don’t see any reason not to do the same here. Outside of one decent start at a course he loves in TPC Twin Cities, Finau has not been good since his win in Mexico. Benny An, meanwhile, has three top 25s in his last four starts and has really found something with the broomstick putter.

Lack: Corey Conners (-110) over Brian Harman (DraftKings) — I have tremendous respect for what Brian Harman was able to accomplish at Hoylake, but he’ll be dining out on that performance for weeks. With his Ryder Cup all but secured, Harman put up an anemic effort in Memphis, and he now travels to a golf course where his lack of distance could really hurt him. Corey Conners, on the other hand, is coming off a sixth-place finish in Memphis, and a contending performance this year at Oak Hill leaves me far more encouraged about his ability to tame a track like Olympia Fields.

Matchup Results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Powers: 1 for 1 (Im (+100) over Finau); Lack: 1 for 1 (T. Kim (-120) over Harman); Caddie: PUSH (Burns (-110) over Day); Mayo: PUSH (Burns (-110) over Day); Gehman: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1

Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 23-16-2 (up 6.81 units); Lack: 18-12-1 (up 3.83 units); Caddie: 21-16-4 (up 3.65 units); Hennessey: 22-17-2 (up 3.62 units); Gehman: 22-17-2 (up 3.2 units); Mayo: 16-21-1 (down 5.49 units); Gdula: 16-24-2 (down 9.23 units)

BMW Championship picks 2023: Top 10s

Caddie: Cameron Davis (+410, FanDuel) — The big-hitting young Aussie continues to grow, and I think he can keep this hot stretch going with his power at Olympia Fields.

Mayo: Keegan Bradley (+400, DraftKings) — The driving and putting has cooled off a bit, but we’ve seen with Keegan that either (or both!) can flip instantaneously. The irons remain sharp, and at a course that demands accurate, long driving combined with deadly long-iron play, Keegan is one of the few who fits the bill.

Gdula: Byeong Hun An (+340, FanDuel) — An’s putter has – historically – cost him a lot of strokes. Right now, he’s putting pretty well, and that’s supported by good splits from within 15 feet.

Gehman: Max Homa (+200, DraftKings) — Homa is trending at the right time with his last four starts all ending with impressive finishes. He earned a T-21 in Detroit, a T-12 at the Scottish Open, T-10 at The Open and then a T-6 finish last week in Memphis. He was stellar off-the-tee, finishing fifth in that strokes-gained category last week. That’s a valuable skill set to have around Olympia Fields.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (+145, FanDuel) — I’m with the caddie, this should be a great course for Hovland—and plus-money on a top-10 is very nice.

Powers, Golf Digest: Collin Morikawa (+200, DraftKings) — Morikawa was one shot away from a top-10 finish last week and now has three top-15s in his last five starts. He’s getting hot at the right time and, like my longshot pick, Sungjae Im, he’s long overdue for a victory.

Lack: Keegan Bradley (+400, DraftKings) — With his Ryder Cup chances in doubt, I’m expecting a strong performance out of Keegan Bradley this week on a golf course he should be incredibly comfortable at. Bradley has had a ton of success on firmer, faster, more difficult Bentgrass courses and his putter has come alive of late as well. He played far better than his results would indicate in Memphis, gaining three strokes on approach, and I expect his ball-striking advantage to be accentuated even further on a track such as Olympia Fields. There’s tremendous value on Bradley at +400 to finish top-10 in a field of 50.

Top-10 results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Gdula: 1 for 1 (Russell Henley +360); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Tommy Fleetwood +240); Everybody else: 0 for 1

Top-10 results from this season: Gehman: 12 for 41 (up 21.6 units); Gdula: 10 for 41 (up 5.8 units); Hennessey: 7 for 41 (up 1.95 units); Lack: 8 for 31 (up 1.4 units); Mayo: 8 for 38 (down 2.9 units); Caddie: 9 for 41 (down 3.1 units); Powers: 5 for 41 (down 5.4 units)

BMW Championship picks 2023: One and Done

Gehman: Lucas Glover — We are certainly running out of top-tier options but a gift has been handed to us in the form of Lucas Glover. Completely off the radar just two months ago, Glover is now the same odds to win the BMW Championship as Rickie Fowler. He’s been phenomenal from tee-to-green and stoic with his new putter in hand. Glover has just a bit more unfinished business as he makes a late push for the Ryder Cup.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo. Sanderson Farms Championship: Sam Burns. Shriners: Taylor Montgomery. Zozo: Sungjae Im. CJ Cup: Matt Fitzpatrick. Bermuda: Denny McCarthy. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. Houston Open: Aaron Wise. RSM Classic: Brian Harman. Sentry TOC: Cameron Young. Sony Open: Hideki Matsuyama. American Express: Brian Harman. Farmers: Jason Day. AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. WMPO: Scottie Scheffler. Genesis: Justin Thomas. Honda: Sungjae Im. API: Rory McIlroy. Players: Jon Rahm. Valspar: Justin Rose. WGC-Match Play: Cameron Young. Valero: Rickie Fowler. Masters: Jordan Spieth. RBC Heritage: Collin Morikawa. Zurich: Kurt Kitayama. Mexico Open: Ben Martin. Wells Fargo: Viktor Hovland. Byron Nelson: K.H. Lee. PGA Championship: Xander Schauffele. Charles Schwab Challenge: Min Woo Lee. Memorial: Patrick Cantlay. RBC Canadian Open: Tyrrell Hatton. U.S. Open: Brooks Koepka. Travelers: Tony Finau. Rocket Mortgage: Cameron Davis. John Deere: Denny McCarthy. Scottish: Matt Fitzpatrick. Open: Dustin Johnson. 3M: Emiliano Grillo. Wyndham: Si Woo Kim. FedEx St. Jude: Max Homa.

Hennessey: Lucas Glover — A little late to the party… Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Cam Davis. Sanderson Farms Championship: Denny McCarthy. Shriners: Emiliano Grillo. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Sungjae Im. Bermuda: Mark Hubbard. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. Houston Open: Jason Day. RSM Classic: Brendon Todd. Sentry TOC: Patrick Cantlay. Sony Open: Matt Kuchar. American Express: Brian Harman. Farmers: Will Zalatoris. AT&T Pebble Beach: Seamus Power. WMPO: Collin Morikawa. Genesis: Justin Thomas. Honda: Chris Kirk. API: Keith Mitchell. Players: Rory McIlroy. Valspar: Adam Hadwin. WGC-Match Play: Tyrrell Hatton. Valero: Nick Taylor. Masters: Scottie Scheffler. RBC Heritage: Jordan Spieth. Zurich: Sahith Theegala. Mexico Open: Gary Woodland. Wells Fargo: Xander Schauffele. Byron Nelson: Tyrrell Hatton. PGA Championship: Jon Rahm. Charles Schwab Challenge: Justin Rose. Memorial: Corey Conners. RBC Canadian Open: Tommy Fleetwood. U.S. Open: Max Homa. Travelers: Tom Kim. Rocket Mortgage: Rickie Fowler. John Deere: Adam Schenk. Scottish: Min Woo Lee. Open: Brooks Koepka. 3M: Cameron Young. Wyndham: Russell Henley. FedEx St. Jude: Wyndham Clark.

Powers: Jordan Spieth — Pleasantly surprised to see I haven’t used Spieth yet. Also hilarious that I’ve used Robby Shelton and Aaron Rai over him. What a scene.

Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Sahith Theegala. Sanderson Farms Championship: J.T. Poston. Shriners: Sungjae Im. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Tyrrell Hatton. Bermuda: Russell Knox. Mayakoba: Thomas Detry. Houston Open: Sepp Straka. RSM Classic: Davis Riley. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. Sony Open: Gary Woodland. American Express: Cameron Young. Farmers: Taylor Montgomery. AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. WMPO: Sungjae Im. Genesis: Collin Morikawa. Honda: Chris Kirk. API: Will Zalatoris. Players: Patrick Cantlay. Valspar: Justin Suh. WGC-Match Play: Tom Kim. Valero: Matt Kuchar. Masters: Tony Finau. RBC Heritage: Rickie Fowler. Zurich: Robby Shelton. Mexico Open: Luke List. Wells Fargo: Viktor Hovland. Byron Nelson: Tom Hoge. PGA Championship: Brooks Koepka. Charles Schwab Challenge: Tommy Fleetwood. Memorial: Shane Lowry. RBC Canadian Open: Justin Rose. U.S. Open: Dustin Johnson. Travelers: Tom Kim. Rocket Mortgage: Ludvig Aberg. John Deere: Denny McCarthy. Scottish: Adam Scott. Open: Rory McIlroy. 3M: Sepp Straka. Wyndham: Aaron Rai. FedEx St. Jude: Sam Burns.

About our experts

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.

Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.

Rick Gehman is the founder of and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.

Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also a data analyst and writer for, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports