AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2022 picks: Our obligatory Maverick McNealy bet
Well, we did it again. Pat Mayo correctly predicted Luke List at 70-1 to win the Farmers Insurance Open in our “Sleepers/Dark Horses” section. Making it even more impressive was the fact Mayo also touted Will Zalatoris as his lone outright winner. Safe to say Pat had a very comfortable Saturday evening watching that playoff unfold.
As for the rest of the Willy Z backers, not so much. Unfortunately for Zalatoris and anyone who wanted to go back to that well this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he won’t have a chance to redeem himself. Zalatoris tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday and had to withdraw. His maiden victory, and the cash we’d all like to win on it, will have to wait.
Our goal now is to start a little winning streak, which will require hitting another winner in this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It won’t be easy, as Pebble has historically proven ripe for a mega longshot victory, but we’ll give it our best shot.
Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2022 picks: Our experts' outright predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Lanto Griffin (45-1, DraftKings) — I’m not sure why Lanto is thought of as a second-tier player. He has three top-10s in his past seven starts … that’s elite stuff. He’s got the iron play and he can really heat up with the wedges and putter. Plus, he finished top 10 in his last start here in 2020.
Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Jordan Spieth (16-1, DraftKings) — It’s been a tough go for Spieth since losing at the Open Championship in 2021, but, even at his worst in 2020, he still delivered at Pebble Beach. The wedge play is worrisome, yet his short-game magic and ability to figure out these tiny greens make him worth the gamble on track record alone. Plus, we’re getting a discount price for a weak field based on his recent results.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Seamus Power (21-1, FanDuel) — Power is on a heater and leads the field in birdie or better rate gained over the past 50 rounds, according to FantasyNational. He can go low enough to pick up the win here.
Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Cameron Tringale (25-1, DraftKings) — It’s time. Tringale holds the dubious record of the most earnings on the PGA Tour without a victory … $16,071,013. He’s routinely putting himself in contention, including a T-3 last week at Torrey Pines. Add that result to his T-7 in Houston and T-2 at the ZOZO Championship, and that's three top-seven finishes in his past five starts. With a weaker field this week and a seventh-place finish from last year to build off, Tringale seems primed to break through at Pebble Beach.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Maverick McNealy (28-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I keep betting on Mav, and there is zero chance I’m stopping now—as he arrives to a venue he has played so much golf in his life. I mean, his family literally owned a vacation home on the course. He’s got a T-5 and a second in the past two years at Pebble, and he’s playing SUCH good golf in California. According to Justin Ray, Mav is 99-under par in the past three years in events in Cali. Only Cantlay is better. I will not miss out on the Mav coronation.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest assistant editor: Maverick McNealy (28-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Don’t have much analysis here that most of you don’t already know. This is strictly a FOMO bet. If Mav wins at freaking Pebble and I’m not on it, I may never sleep again. If he plays poorly, so be it. We’ll meet again at Harbour Town.
Lee Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Kevin Streelman (60-1, PointsBet) — Streelman ranks 11th in FanShare Sports' course-suitability ranking for Pebble Beach. He has had great success here in the past and ranks 10th in this field for SG/total over the past two years.
*Gdula and Alldrick had picked Daniel Berger before his WD. They have replaced their selections above before the tournament started.*
Past results: Golf Digest's betting panel had another strong season in 2020-’21, correctly predicting 14 winners in the last 28 events of the year. We’re already off to a hot start in the new season, too, with Pat Mayo correctly predicting Luke List’s victory at Torrey Pines at 70-1 in our “Sleepers/Dark Horses” section. Rick Gehman also hit Sam Burns (16-1) at the Sanderson Farms Championship in the fall, as well as Viktor Hovland (19-1) at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. Brandon Gdula also hit on Hovland at Mayakoba, and Stephen Hennessey cashed on Hideki Matsuyama (12-1) at the Zozo Championship.
Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "Be Right," (below) where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to "Be Right" wherever you get your podcasts!
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2022 picks: Sleepers/Dark horses who could win
Caddie: Sahith Theegala (110-1, DraftKings) — Probably a popular pick, but rightfully so. He’s an absolute stud, and if his college season hadn’t gotten cut short due to COVID, he’d be getting even more publicity. Typically, you need some experience around Pebble to win … but I think this kid’s talented enough to get it done. At these odds, it’s definitely worth the flier.
Mayo: Andrew Putnam (80-1, DraftKings) — Currently playing his best golf in years, Putnam is overachieving in irons, short game, and putting to begin the year. His one major flaw, driving, is mitigated by the wide fairways, lack of penal rough and distance at the Pro-Am rotation. Additionally, over the past 24 rounds, per Fantasy National, he’s 10th in the field in Opportunities Gained and sixth in proximity from 125-150 yards with Poa being his best putting surface, gaining 0.42 strokes on the greens per round
Gdula: Pat Perez (80-1, FanDuel) — Perez got back on track at a familiar Torrey Pines a week ago, and I’m banking on him to parlay that into a strong showing at the three-course setup this week. He’s one of the best iron players in the field, and that can help on the small greens of Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill.
Gehman: Min Woo Lee (50-1, DraftKings) — Min Woo Lee has been playing great on the DP World Tour, earning three top-eight finishes in his last five starts. He’s been able to tackle some of the more difficult fields on that circuit, as evidenced by his victory at the Scottish Open last summer. Now he’ll get to battle one of the weaker PGA Tour fields that we will see on the schedule.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (55-1, Bet365) — This might be the perfect setup for Bez: A short course where his fantastic short game can thrive. His proximity numbers from the crucial 75-100 and 100-125 yards are better than anyone in the field over the past 36 rounds, per Fantasy National. Bez’s ceiling is high … his talent’s deep enough to win on the PGA Tour.
Powers, Golf Digest: Doc Redman (200-1, DraftKings) — After three straight missed cuts, Papa Doc randomly popped off with his irons at Torrey last week and wound up picking up his first top-25 finish since his runner-up at Palmetto last June. Maybe he found something, and if so this is a gross misprice on a guy who has knocked on the door multiple times, particularly in these weak-field events, with five finishes of fourth or better since June of 2019.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Aaron Rai (80-1, DraftKings) — Rai is playing some great golf right now as he showed with last week’s sixth-place finish. The Englishman comes into this event ranked eighth in the field for SG/total over the last three months and seventh for Opportunities Gained. Whilst having never played at Pebble Beach before, the course should suit him, especially the Poa greens where he ranks 26th in the field for SG/putting over the last two years on this surface.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2022 picks: Players we're fading
Caddie: Patrick Cantlay (+650, DraftKings) — Y’all are making me pick someone up here? Well, like I say below … I’d much rather bet a middle-of-the-pack guy like Russell Knox to finish top 10 than bet Cantlay to win this thing at the same price. Winning’s tough, and Cantlay might get it done, but there’s no juice with this number.
Mayo: Patrick Cantlay (+650, DraftKings) — He’s a deserving favorite, for sure. The price is just too steep for me.
Gdula: Jason Day (17-1, FanDuel) — I’d love to see Day get the win personally, but the long-term data—specifically the irons—just isn’t there compared to others at similar numbers this week.
Gehman: Jordan Spieth (16-1, DraftKings) — Pebble Beach will be a litmus test for Spieth who has dominated this event in his career. In nine trips, he has a win and four other top-10 finishes. Unfortunately for Spieth, that’s where the positives end. Dating back to the end of 2021, he’s lost strokes to the field in six of his last seven starts. That’s easily his worst stretch of golf since the end of 2020.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ryan Palmer (40-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Pick on Palmer in matchups. He’s 135th in SG/putting on Poa greens over the past 36 rounds in this field. He can get by other weeks with a weak putting stroke, but not on these Poa greens.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jordan Spieth (16-1, DraftKings) — If there were ever a place to get back on track it’d be Pebble for Spieth. But I’d rather see it first than bet it happening at this number.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Seamus Power (21-1, FanDuel) — Power is priced way too low this week. This is not the type of course he performs well on and in fact he ranks outside of the top 100 in the FanShare’s course-suitability ranking for Pebble Beach. One of the main reasons for this is his poor putting on Poa greens where the Irishman ranks just 93rd in this field for SG/putting over the last two years.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2022 picks: Matchups
Caddie: Christian Bezuidenhout (-111) over Ryan Palmer (Bet365) — The South African is a rising star, and though he might lack the experience at Pebble, this place should suit him. Wedge and putt it to death. Palmer has experience but not great experience. Edge to Bezuidenhout.
Mayo: Troy Merritt (+105) over Ryan Palmer (DraftKings) — Palmer is simply a fade at Pebble Beach. Despite, on paper, it seemingly fits what he does well, it’s just never translated to any results over the years for him.
Gdula: Mackenzie Hughes (-105) over Mito Pereira (FOX Bet) — I usually side with the better ball-strikers in matchups, but Hughes’ short game should come into play this week more than usual. He’s the better overall player long term.
Gehman: Seamus Power (-110) over Jordan Spieth (DraftKings) — These two golfers are going in opposite directions. Spieth is mired in the worst seven-event stretch of his career while Power is in the best stretch of his career. Over the last 50 rounds for each, Spieth is gaining just 0.42 strokes per round while Power is gaining 1.41 strokes per round. Spieth has zero top-15 finishes in his last seven starts while Power has finished inside the top 15 six times in his last seven starts.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jason Day (-111) over Jordan Spieth (Bet365) — Spieth and Day have nearly equal course history, and Day nearly won last weekend at Torrey. Spieth, meanwhile, looks abysmal with his irons and driver. And they have even odds?
Powers, Golf Digest: Lanto Griffin (-120) over Christiaan Bezuidenhout (DraftKings) — Big fan of Bez’s game and his story but Griffin is simply the better player right now. Plus, he’s carrying over some serious momentum thanks to a final-round 65 on Sunday at Torrey.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Cameron Tringale (-110) over Seamus Power (Bet365) — As you can see above, I don’t fancy Power’s chances this week, Tringale on the other hand ranks third in the field for SG/total over the last two years and sixth for SG/total over the last three months. He also gets on well at Pebble, ranking 38th in the FanShare’s CSR this week thanks to his solid approach game and putting on these greens.
Matchup Results from the Farmers Insurance Open: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Rose (+126) over Scheffler); Mayo: 1 for 1 (List (-110) over Tringale); Powers: 1 for 1 (Griffin (-120) over Bradley); Alldrick: 1 for 1 (D. Johnson (-105) over DeChambeau); Gdula: 0 for 1; Gehman: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Mayo: 10-2-2 (up 7.3 units); Powers: 10-3-1 (up 6.75 units); Caddie: 7-6-1 (up 0.81 units); Hennessey: 6-7-1 (down 3.61 units); Alldrick: 5-8-1 (down 3.82 units); Gdula: 4-10-0 (down 6.27 units); Gehman: 3-9-2 (down 6.49 units)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2022 picks: Top 10s
Caddie: Russell Knox (+650, DraftKings) — The same odds as Patrick Cantlay winning a golf tournament with 155 other golfers? That’s crazy. Knox has very strong history here (a T-7 last year and four other top 30s) and played some great golf at Waialae, another shorter course where iron play is key.
Mayo: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+400, DraftKings) — I worry about the lack of Pebble Beach experience but his skill set certainly fits these courses. His one critical flaw, driving, won’t matter as much as most weeks. Great news for one of the best short iron players and putters on planet earth.
Gdula: Seamus Power (+240, FanDuel) — If we can downgrade off-the-tee play, then Power gets a boost. He has an elite fairway-through-green game (97th percentile in this field in strokes-gained minus off-the-tee play, per my data) and he’s trending lately.
Gehman: Tom Hoge (+550, DraftKings) — Hoge’s last four starts have produced two top-four finishes and two missed cuts, which is standard operating procedure for him. He’s a volatile golfer with plenty of upside of weeks when he has “it.” The good news is that his results are consistent enough for oddsmakers to take significant action, often resulting in a value on his top-10 number. He finished 12th at this event last year and will battle a significantly weaker field this time around.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cameron Tringale (+320, Bet365) — I just can’t get there with an outright on Tringale. But in a field so weak, for someone who’s been so consistently good, I think these top-10 odds are fair.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sahith Theegala (+650, DraftKings) — Theegala has made three straight cuts and is coming off a top 25 at the Farmers, where he gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 3 strokes tee-to-green. It’s his first appearance in this event, but everything about Pebble should suit his game. Iron play, poa putting and solid long-term around-the-green numbers. He might not be ready to win yet, but I can see him in the hunt on Sunday afternoon.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Troy Merritt (+900, FanDuel) — Merritt ranks 34th in FanShare's course-suitability ranking, mostly due to his excellent putting on Poa greens—he ranks 10th in strokes gained/putting on Poa over the past two years. Merritt has quietly been playing some decent golf over the last three months, ranking 18th in the field for SG/total over this period. He has five top-30 finishes in his past seven events.
Top-10 results from the Farmers Insurance Open: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Sungjae Im +320); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Will Zalatoris +300); Powers: 1 for 1 (Luke List +600); Alldrick: 1 for 1 (Will Zalatoris +300); Mayo: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1; Gehman: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Powers: 5 for 14 (up 18.75 units); Mayo: 2 for 14 (up 2.45 units); Hennessey: 4 for 14 (up 1.47 units); Alldrick: 2 for 14 (up 1 unit); Gehman: 3 for 14 (up 0.2 units); Caddie: 4 for 14 (down 3.15 units); Gdula: 0 for 14 (down 14 units)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2022 picks: One and Done
Gehman: Daniel Berger — It’s now been one year since Berger won this event and he’s played 16 measured events since. He’s gained strokes on approach in every single one of those events. He’s gained strokes from tee-to-green in 14 of 16 and he enters with four straight top-20 finishes. Even his T-20 finish last week at Torrey Pines was somewhat impressive, considering that’s a course that shouldn’t really set-up well for him. Now he’s back on a much more friendly layout where he’s never finished outside the top 10 in three starts.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Kevin Na; Sanderson Farms Championship: Mito Pereira. Shriners: Abraham Ancer. CJ Cup: Louis Oosthuizen. Zozo Championship: Hideki Matsuyama. Bermuda Championship: Seamus Power. Mayakoba: Abraham Ancer. Houston Open: Sam Burns. RSM Classic: Scottie Scheffler. Sentry TOC: Sungjae Im. Sony Open: Corey Conners. American Express: Talor Gooch. Farmers Insurance Open: Tony Finau.
Hennessey: Lanto Griffin — Yes, a little bold. But I used Berger last week (dumb in hindsight). If you got Berger, use him. If not, Lanto will not be popular, he’s got three top-10s in seven starts and a top 10 at Pebble last year.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo; Sanderson Farms Championship: Carlos Ortiz. Shriners: Abraham Ancer. CJ Cup: Collin Morikawa. Zozo Championship: Takumi Kanaya. Bermuda Championship: Seamus Power. Mayakoba: Aaron Wise. Houston Open: Sam Burns. RSM Classic: Brendon Todd. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. Sony Open: Marc Leishman. American Express: Sungjae Im. Farmers Insurance Open: Daniel Berger.
Powers: Cameron Tringale — I will never bet real money on Cameron Tringale but will happily deploy him in a one and done contest. His consistency is unmatched and he has decent course history at Pebble, most notably a top-10 finish last year.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Brendan Steele. Sanderson Farms Championship: Mito Pereira. Shriners: Aaron Wise. CJ Cup: Talor Gooch. Zozo Championship: Joaquin Niemann. Bermuda Championship: Patrick Rodgers. Mayakoba: Jhonattan Vegas. Houston Open: Marc Leishman. RSM Classic: Corey Conners. Sentry TOC: Daniel Berger. Sony Open: Kevin Na. American Express: Seamus Power. Farmers Insurance Open: Luke List.
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long- and short-form content, owner of the Mayo Media Network and host of The Pat Mayo Experience. (Subscribe for video or audio.) Mayo (@ThePME) was nominated as the 2021 Golf Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writing Association, having won the 2020 FSWA Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award in 2020. He was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year) and is a finalist again for the Podcast of the Year for 2021. His 23 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are third-most all-time. Mayo is on the board of governors at www.fantasynational.com.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, was nominated for the 2021 FSWA Podcast of the Year and won 2018 fantasy sports-writers association Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula (@Gdula13) co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast.
Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.
Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports started out writing an article highlighting the best bargain plays for fantasy golf under his twitter handle @DKGolfBargains. His success at this prompted FanShare Sports to enlist him as a guest writer, which evolved into him writing the weekly Under The Radar article. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldrick’s insight into European Tour regulars and low priced, low owned plays has provided an invaluable edge for readers when it comes to DFS GPPs.