Betting Analysis
Wyndham Championship picks 2023: Can this horse for the course finally get over the line?
And just like that, we’ve reached another end to a PGA Tour regular season. We can’t remember a faster-paced and more action-packed year, mostly thanks to the introduction of the elevated events, which put the best players on our TV screens as often as possible. Hell, even the “down” weeks produced the goods this season.
The Wyndham Championship, while not boasting the strongest field, is by no means a down week. There is so much to play for at Sedgefield, as there always is, but especially so with just 70 spots in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Any time livelihoods are on the line, it’s must-see TV.
Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2023 Wyndham Championship.
Wyndham Championship picks 2023: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Denny McCarthy (25-1, FanDuel) — Denny’s been playing too dang well not to have a win this year. He has nice finishes here in the past, and you want an elite putter at the Wyndham.
Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Cam Davis (45-1, DraftKings) — Davis is finally flashing a flake of form so it’s time to jump on board at a Donald Ross course. Basically, if Ross or Pete Dye is involved in the architecture, you’ll want some money on Cam Davis.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Russell Henley (20-1, FanDuel) — Henley has the accuracy and irons to win at Sedgefield for sure. He’ll need to improve the putting a bit, yet gaining strokes tee-to-green seems like a near lock for him in this setup.
Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Russell Henley (20-1, DraftKings) — There’s an incredible overlap between the skills that Henley possesses and the skills required to win around Sedgefield Country Club. Henley is deadly accurate off the tee, leading the tour in driving accuracy. He’s also been the fourth-best approach player in this field over the last 36 rounds – per the RickRunGood.com golf database. He’ll tap into plenty of confidence when he steps on the grounds this week, he’s finished inside the top 10 in three straight years.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Adam Hadwin (50-1, BetMGM) — I’m tailing my guy John Haselbauer, aka @PGATout on Twitter, who was all over Kevin Kisner when he won here in 2020. His formula: You want players who rank in the top 50 in driving accuracy, strokes gained/approach and weighted putting. Tom Kim fit that bill last year, too. Adam Hadwin is one of seven players to fit that bill, as Tout points out, and he had a T-11 here last year, and we love him in general on positional courses that turn into birdie-fests. Read John’s full breakdown here.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Aaron Rai (40-1, DraftKings) — I’m not the biggest believer in these Euro Tour winners who pile up top 10s in America but never win (cough, cough, Tommy Fleetwood), but Rai’s recent numbers have me believing. Not only is he one of the most accurate drivers on tour, but he’s gained 6.7 strokes or more on approach in three of his last six measured starts, all three resulting in top-12 finishes. Last week, he gained in every major category, which earned him another top-20 finish. And while his FedEx Cup Playoffs spot seems semi-secure (Rai is 61st in the standings), it’d be best to avoid a down week. Plenty of motivation and a great course setup for his skill set seems like a nice recipe for a potential breakthrough dub.
Andy Lack, RickRunGood.com and Inside Golf podcast: Hideki Matsuyama (20-1, BetMGM) — Hideki Matsuyama has had a very quiet but consistent season. Still, it’s time the former Masters champ earns another trophy (tough to believe his last one came in January 2022). Matsuyama has three top-15 finishes in seven appearances here, and he has gained strokes ball-striking in every appearance here. He remains the best pure short-to-middle iron player in this entire field, and he is an incredibly accurate driver of the ball. Sedgefield is the type of course that Hideki generally feels very comfortable on, as he ranks second in this field in SG/total on short, positional golf courses and sixth on Bermuda-based golf courses over the past two years. He also gained over 2.5 strokes off-the-tee at the 3M Open and nearly five strokes on approach. Expect a similarly elite performance this week out of the eight-time PGA Tour winner heading into the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Past results: As we head toward the end of the season, the panel remains as hot as ever, with 12 outright victories on the year as a group. Pat Mayo recently picked up his first of the season, nailing Rickie Fowler’s comeback win at the Rocket Mortgage at 14-1. Rick Gehman was on Fowler, too, giving him two outright hits on the year. Brandon Gdula leads the way with SIX of his own, his most recent coming at the U.S. Open where Gdula touted Wyndham Clark at 85-1 (!!).
Wyndham Championship picks 2023: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Doug Ghim (80-1, FanDuel) — Like I said up top, you need an elite putter to win this event. The former Texas Longhorn is just that, and his ball-striking is much improved over the past few events. This might surprise some people because Ghim doesn’t have the same buzz that was around him a few years ago, but the kid can play.
Mayo: Justin Suh (80-1, DraftKings) — Usually when I’m backing a ball-striking savant I pray he can make a few putts to get into contention. That rarely works out well for me. So, let’s pivot, and take Suh who needs to improve his irons to match his putting. Fortunately, two of his three best tee-to-green weeks came at short, southeastern courses (Honda +10.8 T2G; Valspar +7.0 T2G). Suh’s gained on the greens in 13 straight starts with an insane average of +3.4 SG/putting over his past 20 tournaments.
Gdula: Andrew Putnam (70-1, FanDuel) — Putnam’s long-term stats are bogged down by a lack of driving distance. That shouldn’t matter much this week. So what we’re getting is an accurate driver with great irons and putting at a true long-shot price of 70-1.
Gehman: Brendon Todd (50-1, DraftKings) — Todd has made three straight cuts, highlighted by a runner-up finish at the John Deere Classic. The two things that will allow him to separate from the field are his driving accuracy and ability to make birdies. He’s 10th on tour in playing out of the fairway and 31st in birdie average. He’ll avoid three-putts on these big greens and give himself a chance at the top of the board.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Lucas Glover (80-1, BetMGM) — It seems like everyone’s off Lucas Glover after one MC at the 3M Open. Glover gained strokes in the ball-striking categories again—not on the level he was during his three straight top-10s in July—but this is more of a Lucas Glover course. It’s a shorter, positional course where he can lean on his elite iron play, accuracy and wedge play. Plus, he’s on Bermuda, and though the numbers are bad over his past 50 rounds, he turned a corner over the past couple of months putting, so I expect the South Carolina kid to have another great week.
Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Suh (80-1, DraftKings) — Suh’s best two finishes this year, which are his best two as a pro on the PGA Tour, came at the Honda (fifth) and the Players (sixth). Those two courses require pinpoint accuracy off the tee, just like Sedgefield. We know his putter will show up, as Suh has gained on the greens in a ridiculous 13 consecutive starts. Now we just need him to find fairways, get his irons dialed in, and we just might have something in Greensboro.
Lack: Brandon Wu (100-1, FanDuel) — I’ve been a long believer in Brandon Wu since he embarrassed me in high school golf. After a decorated career at Stanford, Wu has already put himself in position to win multiple times on the PGA Tour early in his career, and he already has top-three finishes this year at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Mexico Open. Coming off a performance in Minnesota where he gained over 2.5 strokes both on approach and off-the-tee, Wu now returns to a golf course that he finished eighth at last year. He’s primed for a breakthrough this week in Greensboro.
Wyndham Championship picks 2023: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Justin Thomas (35-1, DraftKings) — I know he says he’s close. But there’s a difference between being “close” to finishing in the top 25 and winning a PGA Tour event with guys peaking at the end of the season. JT will not win.
Mayo: Shane Lowry (35-1, DraftKings) — I like Lowry fine, but nothing he’s shown in the past 18 months leads me to believe he can make enough putts to win at a score of 20 under or better. A top 10? Sure. A win? That’s going to be tough.
Gdula: Sam Burns (28-1, FanDuel) — Although it sounds a bit hypocritical of me to point out that Burns is carrying himself with a hot putter but also liking McCarthy to top-10 (see more below), Burns’ track record on Bermuda has his win odds a bit too short for my liking.
Gehman: Justin Thomas (35-1, DraftKings) — There’s a few reasons why Thomas hasn’t played this event since 2016—he hasn’t needed to, as he’s usually well within the FedEx Cup Playoff standings and he likely doesn’t think Sedgefield fits his game. I would concur on the latter, since Thomas has a knack for being wayward off the tee and failing to convert enough putts. Barring a high-end finish, Thomas’ season will come to an end this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (35-1, DraftKings) — If this bet is for you, all power to you. I will happily keep fading JT in matchups until he proves me wrong.
Powers, Golf Digest: Ludvig Aberg (35-1, Bet365) — The Aberg Alliance finally got what they were looking for at the John Deere, where he finished inside the top five. He then promptly missed the cut in Scotland and looked awful last week at 3M, and yet here he is, still at sub-40 odds. Love the kid’s game and would love to see him in Rome, but there are so many better options at way better odds this week.
Lack: Sam Burns (28-1, FanDuel) — Sam Burns is always a reasonable choice in the outright betting market, as he remains one of the few players that feels priced correctly for how much he wins. With that being said, I do not believe this is the spot for him given his lack of accuracy off the tee and shaky approach play. Of the high-priced players in this field, Burns ranks the lowest in both driving accuracy and short-to-middle iron play, two essential skills at Sedgefield. His putter, particularly on Bermuda greens, is always deadly, but I prefer him far more next week in Memphis.
Wyndham Championship picks 2023: Matchups
Caddie: Byeong Hun An (-125) over Alex Noren (PointsBet) — Benny has had an up-and-down season, but he’s coming off two straight top-25 finishes (both in elite fields at the Open and Scottish). He also was really close to winning here in 2019 when J.T. Poston blitzed him.
Mayo: Ben Griffin (+100) over Harris English (DraftKings) — Griffin consistently makes cuts and is solid all around. English has four very good finishes this year and they’ve all come on the heels of insane putting weeks. We know that’s an out for English, can’t discount that, but banking on a player to essentially lead the field on the greens is normally a terrible wager.
Gdula: Russell Knox (+110) over Martin Laird (FanDuel) — Neither of these guys are in great form, but Laird is overperforming thanks to making a lot of long putts. Knox is actually better from within 15 feet. The tee-to-green game is pretty similar, so the plus odds here are appealing.
Gehman: Hideki Matsuyama (-110) over Sungjae Im (Bet365) — Both of these golfers have provided reason for concern, but Matsuyama has been significantly more consistent over the course of the past few months. He also flashed brilliance last week in Minnesota, having two massive rounds from tee-to-green and finishing T-30.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Adam Hadwin (-120) over Taylor Moore (DraftKings) — I’m showing this one as a huge edge: In my model on FantasyNational.com, Hadwin ranks seventh for me while Moore is 83rd. Moore is 108th in fairways gained in this field over the past 36 rounds, and he’s 78th in SG/approach, compared to Hadwin ranking in the top 40 in both categories. Moore has missed five of his past six cuts, too, which is comforting in a matchup bet.
Powers, Golf Digest: Adam Scott (+100) over Sam Burns (DraftKings) — The actual experts on this panel are all fading Sam Burns and Adam Scott at plus money against anybody is always an enticing proposition. Of course, it helps, too, that he has a runner-up finish at Sedgefield within the last three years.
Lack: Adam Hadwin (-120) over Taylor Moore (DraftKings) — I’ve been high on Adam Hadwin for a number of weeks now, and despite a disappointing missed cut last week in Minnesota, the Canadian’s driver still looked rock solid. Hadwin already has a 10th-place finish on this golf course, and a strong track record of success on other shorter Bermuda tracks such as TPC Sawgrass and Innisbrook as well. While Taylor Moore’s course history is similarly impressive, I have far more concerns about his overall consistency. The former Valspar Championship winner has missed five of his last six cuts, and his ball-striking has been unreliable at best. This one should cash on Friday.
Matchup Results from the 3M Open: Gehman: 1 for 1 (Aberg (-120) over Theegala); Lack: 1 for 1 (Jaeger (-110) over Fox); Caddie: 1 for 1 (Jaeger (-110) over Fox); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Cole (+100) over Spaun); Hennessey: PUSH (Cam. Young (-170) over Thomas); Powers: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Hennessey: 22-15-2 (up 5.62 units); Gehman: 22-15-2 (up 5.2 units); Powers: 21-16-2 (up 4.81 units); Lack: 17-11-1 (up 4 units); Caddie: 20-16-3 (up 2.85 units); Mayo: 16-20-0 (down 4.49 units); Gdula: 16-22-2 (down 7.23 units)
Wyndham Championship picks 2023: Top 10s
Caddie: J.T. Poston (+330, DraftKings) — I just mentioned his flawless 2019 victory above, and he’s playing right at those elite levels right now. I love Poston here … actually, the bet I really want is this JT over the other JT in a matchup!
Mayo: Ben Griffin (+700, DraftKings) — The Wyndham is actually one of two top-10 finishes in Griffin’s career (also, a T-3 in Bermuda). He’s gained with his irons in seven consecutive starts, has been putting better as of late, and while he’s losing strokes with his driver, he’s actually been better than field average in accuracy over the past two months, which is far more important than distance at Sedgefield.
Gdula: Denny McCarthy (+300, FanDuel) — A dominant putter, McCarthy is doing enough with the rest of his game to be lingering. He has three top-10 finishes in his past five starts. Usually, that’s a sign for me to want to move away, but it’s a great setup for him.
Gehman: Aaron Rai (+400, DraftKings) — Rai has piled up five top-25 finishes in his last seven starts with two of those being T-9 or better. He’s constantly playing out of the short grass and has popped with 6+ strokes on approach in three of his last six starts. The putter is starting to warm up and Rai is certainly trending in the right direction.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Aaron Rai (+400, DraftKings) — Rai’s stats are perfect for the Wyndham, the only thing I’m not sure about is his putting in the clutch on the weekend. That said, he can miss a bunch of them and we’ll still collect on a top-10 bet.
Powers, Golf Digest: Webb Simpson (+850, DraftKings) — Well aware of how bad he’s been this year, but if there’s any horse for the course combo to blindly back on the PGA Tour schedule, it’s Webb at Wyndham.
Lack: Aaron Rai (+400, DraftKings) — Rai has quietly emerged as one of the most accurate drivers on tour, and he is showing all the signs of a player primed for a breakthrough. When betting the golf outright market, it’s important to look more at spike performances than consistent play, and Rai has shown winning upside on multiple occasions this season. There have already been seven instances this calendar year where Rai has gained over five strokes ball-striking, and he is coming off a 20th-place finish at the 3M Open, where he gained strokes in all four major categories.
Top-10 results from the 3M Open: Everybody: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Gehman: 12 for 39 (up 23.6 units); Hennessey: 7 for 39 (up 3.95 units); Gdula: 9 for 39 (up 3.2 units); Lack: 8 for 29 (up 3.4 units); Mayo: 7 for 36 (down 4.3 units); Caddie: 8 for 39 (down 5.4 units); Powers: 4 for 39 (down 12.9 units)
More from Golf Digest
Wyndham Championship picks 2023: One and Done
Gehman: Si Woo Kim — You might have had Kim earmarked for this spot from the start of the season. His Wyndham Championship history is tough to beat, despite a WD last year. He won in 2016 and has three more top-five finishes in 2019, 2020 and 2021. His game is so perfect for this golf course and he offers true winning upside.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo. Sanderson Farms Championship: Sam Burns. Shriners: Taylor Montgomery. Zozo: Sungjae Im. CJ Cup: Matt Fitzpatrick. Bermuda: Denny McCarthy. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. Houston Open: Aaron Wise. RSM Classic: Brian Harman. Sentry TOC: Cameron Young. Sony Open: Hideki Matsuyama. American Express: Brian Harman. Farmers: Jason Day. AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. WMPO: Scottie Scheffler. Genesis: Justin Thomas. Honda: Sungjae Im. API: Rory McIlroy. Players: Jon Rahm. Valspar: Justin Rose. WGC-Match Play: Cameron Young. Valero: Rickie Fowler. Masters: Jordan Spieth. RBC Heritage: Collin Morikawa. Zurich: Kurt Kitayama. Mexico Open: Ben Martin. Wells Fargo: Viktor Hovland. Byron Nelson: K.H. Lee. PGA Championship: Xander Schauffele. Charles Schwab Challenge: Min Woo Lee. Memorial: Patrick Cantlay. RBC Canadian Open: Tyrrell Hatton. U.S. Open: Brooks Koepka. Travelers: Tony Finau. Rocket Mortgage: Cameron Davis. John Deere: Denny McCarthy. Scottish: Matt Fitzpatrick. Open: Dustin Johnson. 3M: Emiliano Grillo.
Hennessey: Russell Henley — He hurt me in 2020 when he gagged away that final-round lead, but he still owns this event.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Cam Davis. Sanderson Farms Championship: Denny McCarthy. Shriners: Emiliano Grillo. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Sungjae Im. Bermuda: Mark Hubbard. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. Houston Open: Jason Day. RSM Classic: Brendon Todd. Sentry TOC: Patrick Cantlay. Sony Open: Matt Kuchar. American Express: Brian Harman. Farmers: Will Zalatoris. AT&T Pebble Beach: Seamus Power. WMPO: Collin Morikawa. Genesis: Justin Thomas. Honda: Chris Kirk. API: Keith Mitchell. Players: Rory McIlroy. Valspar: Adam Hadwin. WGC-Match Play: Tyrrell Hatton. Valero: Nick Taylor. Masters: Scottie Scheffler. RBC Heritage: Jordan Spieth. Zurich: Sahith Theegala. Mexico Open: Gary Woodland. Wells Fargo: Xander Schauffele. Byron Nelson: Tyrrell Hatton. PGA Championship: Jon Rahm. Charles Schwab Challenge: Justin Rose. Memorial: Corey Conners. RBC Canadian Open: Tommy Fleetwood. U.S. Open: Max Homa. Travelers: Tom Kim. Rocket Mortgage: Rickie Fowler. John Deere: Adam Schenk. Scottish: Min Woo Lee. Open: Brooks Koepka. 3M: Cameron Young.
Powers: Aaron Rai — My pick to win, and haven’t used him yet, obviously. At the very least, he’ll be inside the top 20 at some point on Sunday.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Sahith Theegala. Sanderson Farms Championship: J.T. Poston. Shriners: Sungjae Im. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. CJ Cup: Tyrrell Hatton. Bermuda: Russell Knox. Mayakoba: Thomas Detry. Houston Open: Sepp Straka. RSM Classic: Davis Riley. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. Sony Open: Gary Woodland. American Express: Cameron Young. Farmers: Taylor Montgomery. AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. WMPO: Sungjae Im. Genesis: Collin Morikawa. Honda: Chris Kirk. API: Will Zalatoris. Players: Patrick Cantlay. Valspar: Justin Suh. WGC-Match Play: Tom Kim. Valero: Matt Kuchar. Masters: Tony Finau. RBC Heritage: Rickie Fowler. Zurich: Robby Shelton. Mexico Open: Luke List. Wells Fargo: Viktor Hovland. Byron Nelson: Tom Hoge. PGA Championship: Brooks Koepka. Charles Schwab Challenge: Tommy Fleetwood. Memorial: Shane Lowry. RBC Canadian Open: Justin Rose. U.S. Open: Dustin Johnson. Travelers: Tom Kim. Rocket Mortgage: Ludvig Aberg. John Deere: Denny McCarthy. Scottish: Adam Scott. Open: Rory McIlroy. 3M: Sepp Straka.
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also a data analyst and writer for RickRunGood.com, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Golf.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports