Gambling
September 09, 2020

U.S. Open 2020 Picks: The 13 best bets to win at Winged Foot

The COVID-affected major championship schedule rolls on with the 2020 U.S. Open—it just won't count for this season. But it certainly will count right away for gamblers, and after having Collin Morikawa among our top 13 ahead of the PGA Championship, we're feeling confident the winner of the year's second major will also come from our select list. While we will have plenty more in-depth coverage as this major gets closer, here’s our current (weekly) ranking of the top 13 bets—based on Westgate Las Vegas Superbook odds—to win at Winged Foot.

1. Dustin Johnson (9/1)

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Icon Sportswire

Reason to pick: DJ enters the U.S. Open as the outright favorite with his late summer run. He followed up his BMW Championship playoff loss to Jon Rahm with the FedEx Cup title at the Tour Championship, adding to his 11-shot win at the Northern Trust and a T-2 at the PGA Championship. His odds have moved a lot now, from 16-to-1 down to single digits at most books. Still, it's hard to argue against a guy who posted four top-four finishes in this event from 2014-2018.

Cause for concern: His T-2 at Harding Park made him 0-for-4 with 54-hole leads in major championships and kept him with that 21-to-1 ratio of regular wins to majors. At some point, even DJ has to start worrying about that.

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2. Jon Rahm (14/1)

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Sean M. Haffey

Reason to pick: The harder the setup, the better this guy seems to play as evidenced by recent victories at Muirfield and Olympia Fields. Rahm certainly got the length to get around Winged Foot and the touch to manage these treacherous Tillinghast greens. The young Spaniard is getting a lot of respect at this price, but he's deserving of these odds.

Cause for concern: While Rahm finished T-3 at Pebble Beach last year, the U.S. Open is the only major in which he’s missed multiple cuts.

3. Collin Morikawa (20/1)

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Reason to pick: A historic weekend at TPC Harding Park in which he shot a major championship record 128 over his final 36 holes officially put the 23-year-old among the game’s elites.

Cause for concern: Winning a second consecutive major would be another historic feat. Then again, nothing has seemed to faze this guy since turning pro last year.

4. Webb Simpson (30/1)

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Chris Keane

Reason to pick: The 2012 U.S. Open champ, Simpson’s irons (sixth in strokes gained approach) and putter (12th in strokes gained putting) should be enough to overcome his lack of distance. He's also recorded five top-three finishes and eight top 10s in only 13 starts this season.

Cause for concern: Simpson has only recorded two top 10s at majors since winning that U.S. Open. And while his irons and putter are superb, he only ranks 84th in strokes gained off the tee.

5. Bryson DeChambeau (18/1)

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Harry How

Reason to pick: Bulked-up Bryson proved his grip-it-and-rip-it style can hold up in a major with a T-4 at TPC Harding Park. And for everyone who thinks his game is only about power, he ranks eighth in strokes gained putting and second in that stat since the restart.

Cause for concern: His strokes gained approach and around-the-green numbers. Bryson ranks 97th and 127th in those categories, respectively.

6. Justin Thomas (14/1)

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Sam Greenwood

Reason to pick: Arguably the front-runner for PGA Tour Player of the Year with his three victories, JT certainly deserves to be among the betting favorites.

Cause for concern: Since his lone major triumph at the 2017 PGA, Thomas has just one top 10 in his past eight major starts.

7. Xander Schauffele (16/1)

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Keyur Khamar/PGA Tour

Reason to pick: A T-10 at TPC Harding Park was his sixth top 10 in a dozen career major championship appearances. It seems like it’s not a matter of if, but when this 26-year-old claims his first major.

Cause for concern: There are no flaws in his game, but the same thing has been said about many others before him. This isn’t horseshoes.

8. Rory McIlroy (16/1)

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Cliff Hawkins

Reason to pick: The reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year hasn’t been as sharp since the restart. But because of that, you’re getting pretty decent odds for the four-time major champ.

Cause for concern: With baby No. 1 due at any time, McIlroy has mentioned his mind has been elsewhere the past few weeks. Also, Zach Johnson has won a major more recently than this guy. Pretty crazy.

9. Tiger Woods (50/1)

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Darren Carroll/PGA of America

Reason to pick: He’s Tiger Woods and you’re getting 30-to-1 50-to-1 odds.

Cause for concern: He’s Tiger Woods and you’re getting 30-to-1 50-to-1 odds. There’s a reason for his odds dropping at a second straight major. And there weren’t a lot of takers at the PGA. Shaky performances at the Northern Trust and BMW Championship to end his season haven't helped, although maybe the extra time to rest before the U.S. Open is a blessing in disguise for the 44-year-old. Woods also missed the cut at Winged Foot in 2006. That being said, it was his first tournament after the death of his father—and he's the only player on this list who even played in that event.

10. Jason Day (30/1)

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US PGA TOUR

Reason to pick: A stretch of four straight top-seven finishes had Day playing some of his best golf since he was World No. 1. And ranked only 65th in strokes gained putting, he hasn’t even gotten what’s potentially the best part of his game fully on track yet.

Cause for concern: Following that stretch, Day has quickly cooled off with a missed cut and a 64th-place finish to end his season. Also, it’s been over two years since his last win. Well, unless you count the Japan Skins event.

11. Tommy Fleetwood (30/1)

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Cliff Hawkins

Reason to pick: This ball-striking Brit has the perfect game for a U.S. Open as evidenced by a solo fourth at Erin Hills and a runner-up at Shinnecock Hills.

Cause for concern: No matter what you thought about Paul Azinger’s viral comments during the Honda Classic, the fact remains that winning an event on American soil—in particular, a major—is a hurdle Fleetwood has yet to clear.

12. Patrick Reed (40/1)

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Hector Vivas

Reason to pick: Those missing Winged Foot’s treacherous greens will be put to the test, but Reed’s short game should give him an edge. Already a winner of a World Golf Championship this year, the 2018 Masters champ also has three top 15s in his past six starts, including a T-13 at the PGA.

Cause for concern: Not so much of a concern, but an observation that while he usually plays well in front of rowdy crowds—especially in New York—well, um, you know. . .

13. Patrick Cantlay (30/1)

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Gregory Shamus

Reason to pick: The former No. 1-ranked amateur in the world has been quiet since the restart, but his elite ball-striking numbers make him attractive at Winged Foot. Even without strong finishes, Cantlay has gained strokes tee-to-green in every start since January.

Cause for concern: Cantlay has only one top-10 since the restart, which was in the Workday event at Muirfield, where he's a past champ. Cantlay lost more than five strokes on his approach shots in his last appearance (at Olympia Fields), which is not a recipe for success at a U.S. Open.

(NOTE: Brooks Koepka appeared on this list, but he was removed after his WD the week before the U.S. Open.)