| Betting Analysis
Memorial Tournament picks 2025: It's time for Tommy Fleetwood to get it done
After a down week for Scottie Scheffler, the books have adjusted in a massive way. Just kidding. Coming off yet another top five at Colonial, Scheffler is still an enormous favorite at +280 to win the Memorial Tournament.
Scheffler is the defending champion at Jack's Place, and he seems primed to become the first player to go back to back at Muirfield Village since Tiger Woods in 2000 and 2001. It is a Signature Event, so Scheffler will have plenty of challengers, but he won't make it easy.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of Muirfield Village Golf Club, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Memorial Tournament:
The Memorial Tournament picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Tommy Fleetwood (28-1, FanDuel) — Many of the elites are overdue for a win, but none more than Tommy. He has two fourth places and a seventh in his past four starts, and he is a brilliant ball-striker. Tommy thrives on super tough setups like we’ll see this week, so I think it’s all lining up for the Englishman to get Win No. 1 in the U.S.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Viktor Hovland (30-1, DraftKings) — Had his best tee-to-green performance since Valspar at PGA and has been consistently good with the irons all year. Good price on a player who is always a threat to spike.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Tommy Fleetwood (28-1, FanDuel) — Fleetwood’s putting splits have improved markedly since switching his putter, and he’s the second-best tee-to-green player in the field over his past six months, according to datagolf.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Viktor Hovland (30-1, DraftKings) — Press conferences can be very revealing. Viktor Hovland’s interview on Tuesday was quite positive. Hovland spoke energetically about his game since the PGA Championship and felt good about his prospects for this week. Viktor should; he’s ranked fourth in the field over his last 24 rounds on approach and top three in proximity from 175-200 yards. Hovland has won here because he puts the ball in scoring position. We need a player who can track down Scheffler and beat him. Hovland has done it before, and it sounds like he’s prepared to do it again.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Si Woo Kim (45-1, FanDuel) — Si Woo’s history at Muirfield Village is as good as anyone’s with five top-18 finishes in his most recent starts here. The putter has been hot the past two starts, which is the key to unlocking a ceiling Si Woo week. I think we might get it this week.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Shane Lowry (40-1, FanDuel) — Perhaps the best player on the planet without a victory in 2025. Six finishes of 18th or better this year alone and he’s just a few starts removed from a near victory at the Truist. Lowry was also plugging along fine at Quail Hollow before getting screwed by that divot. I expect him to keep doing what he’s been doing all season at Muirfield Village – hit a bunch of fairways, gain strokes on approach and find himself in contention late on Sunday.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Daniel Berger (40-1, FanDuel) — I am going right back to the well with Daniel Berger despite a disappointing finish last week. Berger has still been one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour this season, and I fully believe he is close to an inevitable breakthrough. Muirfield Village is one of the most demanding tee-to-green tests on tour, which in turn, should take some of the pressure off Berger’s putter.
Past results: We have another (easy) winner, with Andy Lack cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s PGA Championship victory at +500. That’s Andy’s first win of 2025 and gives our panel nine individual victories in 2025.
The Memorial Tournament picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Bud Cauley (110-1, FanDuel) — Cauley’s unfortunate car accident occurred at the Memorial in 2018, forcing him to miss nearly three years of action with his significant injuries. What a great story it would be if he could find the winner’s circle and turn that story full circle. He played great again last week, finishing third, and on a week where you’ll have to hit it straight and have all the aspects of your game firing, I think he can surprise people and turn it into a storybook ending.
Mayo: Alex Noren (75-1, FanDuel) — Has clearly found some short-term form post-injury and has the shot shape that should lead to plenty of success at this golf course.
Gdula: Keegan Bradley (55-1, FanDuel) — Keegan is a top-13 golfer in this field over the past six months in all three SG/tee-to-green areas, and he’s 20th in driving accuracy in that span. The putting needs to get hot, but he also has putted well on these bentgrass greens in recent years.
Stewart: Si Woo Kim (45-1, FanDuel) — Si Woo Kim has joked several times recently that he cannot beat Scottie Scheffler. Who better to win The Memorial than Kim, then? The truth is, Si Woo has gained six strokes per start against the field over his past five events. A significant part of that success has been his reliable putting. Kim now returns to a venue where he has five consecutive top-18 finishes. He can hit fairways, knock down pins and has gained strokes with his short game in five straight starts. Take the underdog in Si Woo, and let’s see if he can surprise Mr. Scheffler.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Akshay Bhatia (90-1, Bet365) — We were routinely getting odds on Akshay in the mid-tier earlier in the year, and he’s playing much better golf lately ... so I think these longshot odds are worth a flier. He’s due for a breakout type win, and I think he’s ready to take down a big event like the Memorial.
Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Rose (125-1, BetMGM) — The Englishman has been way too good in the biggest events this year and has way too good of a record at Jack’s Place to not take a little taste at these crazy odds. Even in a MC at the PGA, Rose gained with his irons for the fifth time in his last six starts. He just had an ice-cold putting week that did him in.
Lack: Matt Fitzpatrick (50-1, FanDuel) — Matt Fitzpatrick is coming off an impressive performance at the PGA Championship where he gained 5.8 strokes on approach, good for his best iron week of the season. Now the former U.S. Open champion returns to a golf course that he has recorded a top-10 finish in his last two appearances. Fitzpatrick always seems to raise his baseline in difficult scoring conditions, and Muirfield Village remains one of the most difficult tests on tour.
The Memorial Tournament picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Tour coach: Collin Morikawa (16-1, FanDuel) — Morikawa is a past winner at Muirfield Village, but he seems out of sorts right now—with a MC, T-50, T-54 and a T-17 in his past four stroke-play events.
Mayo: Patrick Cantlay (16-1, BetMGM) — Continues to disappoint in 2025. Don't think he'll just magically find it here.
Gdula: Ludvig Aberg (25-1, FanDuel) — Ludvig’s ball-striking just isn’t great right now, and that makes it hard to like him compared to other big names in much better form at similar numbers.
Stewart: Ludvig Aberg (25-1, BetRivers) — I’m a big fan of Ludvig Åberg, so writing this makes me sad. Since the Genesis win in February, Åberg has one top 20 finish (Masters T-7) and three missed cuts. His iron game has been shaky, and the putter—well, it has been inconsistent. Combine those two negative traits, and you can quickly see why he has lost strokes to the field tee-to-green in five of his last seven starts.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (22-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — These odds seem really low for someone who has talked all year about searching for answers.
Powers, Golf Digest: Tommy Fleetwood (18-1, BetRivers) — Insane odds for a winless player on the PGA Tour. If he was 18-1 to quietly finish T-5, I’d bet the house on it. To win? I’ll pass.
Lack: Justin Thomas (18-1, FanDuel) — While Justin Thomas has found success at Muirfield Village in the past, I still have concerns about his ability to consistently find the fairway. Thomas still ranks below field in average in all of the driving metrics I am looking at this week, and his lack of consistency off the tee makes it very difficult to play offense on this course.
The Memorial Tournament picks 2025: Matchups
Tour coach: Harris English (-120) over Ben Griffin (Bet365) — Harris plays his best golf on tough setups, and so Muirfield Village should set up great for his game. He just finished T-2 at the PGA, so I like fading him against Ben Griffin, whose victory will be really emotional and whose game isn’t as well-suited as Harris’ is to these type of conditions.
Mayo: Andrew Novak (+105) over Max Homa (Coolbet) — Hard to bet Homa as a favorite against anyone right now. Give me the potentially future Ryder Cupper in Novak.
Gdula: Hideki Matsuyama (-115) over Jordan Spieth (FanDuel) — Although Spieth has had his spikes, Matsuyama has had the better consistency with the irons and wedges of late, suiting him well for a market where we should favor stability over upside.
Stewart: Tony Finau (-120) over Jordan Spieth (Bet365) — Tony Finau has been trending positively. Finau got off to a mediocre start this year, but the approach game is back, and he’s bombing it off the tee. With two top eight finishes in his last three Memorial starts, Finau should be fun to watch this week. Jordan Spieth just cannot seem to play consistently. A couple of weeks ago, the iron game was off, and now it's the putter. Both better be working at MVGC or he’ll be watching Finau with us over the weekend.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Harris English (-120) over Ben Griffin (Bet365) — Following the tour coach on this one ... English should thrive on this type of setup.
Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (+320) over Scottie Scheffler (DraftKings) — Honestly, I’m doing this because it's impossible to pass up over 3-to-1 odds on an elite vs. an elite. Of course, Scheffler might be in a class above elite, but JT has been playing some fine golf himself and absolutely has a chance to slay this giant.
Lack: Xander Schauffele (-120) over Justin Thomas (BetOnline) — I bet this same matchup at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, and I simply believe Xander Schauffele is playing at a higher level right now than Thomas. While Thomas has been excellent on shorter, club-down courses such as Harbour Town, his driver issues have been a problem all season on long and difficult golf courses. Schauffele, on the other hand, is coming off his best off-the-tee performance of the season at the PGA Championship.
Matchup Results from the Charles Schwab Challenge: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Grillo (-105) over Greyserman); Tour coach: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Tour coach: 12-4-2 (up 6.31 units); Hennessey: 12-8-1 (up 2.93 units); Powers: 12-9-0 (up 2.9 units); Lack: 10-9-1 (up 0.84 units); Stewart: 9-12-0 (down 3.45 units); Gdula: 7-13-1 (down 6.99 units); Mayo: 7-13-0 (down 6.19 units)
The Memorial Tournament picks 2025: Top 10s
Tour coach: Corey Conners (+260, DraftKings) — One of the best ball-strikers on tour is a great top-10 bet at Jack’s Place. He ranks 18th in SG/total and 11th in total driving, which are two indicators of success. Plus he’s coming off 11th and 18th-place finishes in his past two.
Mayo: Matt Fitzpatrick (+375, Bet365) — Was already beginning to show some life then found his irons at PGA.
Gdula: Shane Lowry (+320, FanDuel) — Lowry is seventh in SG/tee-to green over the last six months among this field—namely seventh in approach—and is a top-20 name in fairways gained in that span. Though the short game at the PGA Championship let him down, the ball-striking was great as always.
Stewart: Corey Conners (+260, DraftKings) — I love when Corey Conners comes in under the radar. Conners is an impeccable ball-striker who likes to fade it off the tee. Corey is ranked second in the field in SG/off-the-tee and seventh in SG/approach. Conners has not lost strokes to the field with his driver or iron game since early March. Ninth in GIRs, Conners has four top 10s in his past eight starts. Take the 10 places and watch Canada’s finest ball-striker contend on a championship course.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (+320, FanDuel) — I’m tempted to bet Lowry outright, but I don’t need as much convincing for him to have another top finish.
Powers, Golf Digest: Tony Finau (+360, FanDuel) — Finau is coming along nicely with consecutive top 20s in big-time events at the Truist and the PGA, and in the latter he gained over five strokes with his irons. He’s also finished in the top eight in two of his last three Memorial appearances. Big Tone is lurking.
Lack: Collin Morikawa (+160, DraftKings) — Muirfield Village has always been a golf course that has rewarded elite iron players, and despite not crossing the finish line with a victory, Collin Morikawa has still been one of the best middle-to-long iron players on the PGA Tour this year. This is one of Morikawa’s most comfortable golf courses on tour, as he already boasts two runner-up finishes and a victory.
Top-10 results from the Charles Schwab Challenge: Lack: 1 for 1 (Bud Cauley +600); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Harry Hall +600); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Swing coach: 5 for 18 (up 11.8 units); Lack: 8 for 21 (up 17.3 units); Gdula: 7 for 21 (up 10 units); Mayo: 3 for 20 (up 2.33 units); Stewart: 7 for 21 (up 5.1 units); Hennessey: 3 for 21 (down 8 units); Powers: 0 for 21 (down 21 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
