Despite the Patriots' best efforts to label themselves as the scrappy underdogs in the AFC Championship, no one is actually doubting their ability to go into Kansas City and come out with a victory. For that reason, bettors will look for any angle to take New England and the points this weekend. One of the most popular talking points at the moment is the weather, as temperatures are expected to dip below 10 degrees by kickoff time at Arrowhead on Sunday.
If there is any team you'd want your money on in below-freezing temps, it's the Patriots, not only because
they cheat by deflating the balls of their history in these games, but because of their style of offense. The dink-and-dunk, choke-the-game approach suits perfectly for cold weather. The Chiefs high-speed aerial attack? Not so much.
As if that's not enough to make you like the Pats, there's the fact that Patrick Mahomes' worst total QBR games have all come in cold temperatures. While the MVP candidate has defied logic with his greatness this season, the cold might be the one thing that slows him down. Here are the numbers per Pregame.com's RJ Bell:
Guy can't play in cold weather! Hammer the Pats +3, right?!
As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friends! If these are considered Mahomes' "worst" games, he might just be even better when we thought. His lowest QBR of 62 against Baltimore would rank him 14th in the NFL (Mahomes finished first with 81.6 this season).
His second-lowest, which came last week against Indianapolis, was still good enough for a 31-13 victory in a game he didn't even throw a touchdown in. It's absolutely absurd that his worst games still place him among the top half of the league's QBs. For comparison's sake, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson all had multiple games of an under 50 total QBR this season. Mahomes has yet to go under 62 in his 17 career starts.
So before you think New England has the advantage in the cold, a fair stance to have, just know that Mahomes' cold-weather play is still well above average, not to mention he's gone 4-1 in those five games.