Gambling
U.S. Open 2020: Who should you bet this weekend at Winged Foot? Here are our 7 favorite bets
Gregory Shamus
It was a chaotic first two days at Winged Foot for the competitors in the 2020 U.S. Open. Brutally long rough, wicked fast greens, and, on Friday, extremely blustery conditions. It was a war of attrition at the iconic New York venue.
Now, just imagine what it was like for bettors.
OK, so maybe we didn't have it as hard as the players, but if you wagered anything on any player this week, you've felt some serious heat. The birdies are few and far between, and the bogeys, and "others," are plentiful. For fans of carnage, it's been an A+ viewing experience.
It's only going to get harder, for both the players and those of us scouring the odds boards. On Friday night, we recorded a special edition of the "Be Right" podcast, recapping all the action from the first two rounds and offering up some analysis for the weekend. Please have a listen below, and also keep scrolling to see our seven favorite bets for the final 36 holes of the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot.
Hideki Matsuyama: 20-1 to win (BetMGM) — Hideki might’ve had the sneakiest under-par 69 on Friday. TV coverage barely showed any of Hideki’s shots, even though Hideki sits at even-par and just four back of the lead. What gives me the most confidence in this is that Hideki has actually lost more than one stroke on the field on the greens so far this week, per RickRunGood.com’s live scoreboard. We know Hideki isn’t a good putter, but that’s even bad for him. If he just putts to the field average, he will give himself enough chances to rise up the leader board. I took him 33-1 pre-tournament, and I’d be confident re-upping on this at a ball-striker’s paradise. --Stephen Hennessey
Louis Oosthuizen, Top-5 finish (+750, DraftKings) — Riding tractors and finishing inside the top 5 at majors, THAT'S WHAT LOUIS DOES. Jokes aside, I fully expect Oosty to make a nice move on Saturday, and a nice move might only require something between 68 and 71. If he does that, he'll be inside the top 10 going into Sunday, and this top 5 number will be in the +100-+300 range. Hop on it now and pray for a vintage T-2 performance from the T-2 king. --Christopher Powers
Brendon Todd to finish top-five (+500, DraftKings) — Todd has the recipe for what you want this weekend at Winged Foot: fairways and greens. Todd has hit 71 percent of fairways this week, which is insanely good (that’s T-1 in the field). It’s not a surprise to see Todd in this spot—he won twice last season on tour and had plenty of other chances. He’s T-7 right now and just four back of the lead. I don’t hate 40-1 for him, but +500 for a top-five has a great chance to hit. --SH
Gregory Shamus
Daniel Berger, Top-20 finish (-120, DraftKings) — You've got to lay a little, but it's worth it for a bet you can feel really good about. Berger, who shot a front-nine 31 on Friday but finished with a 70, is a guy I feel really good about heading into the weekend. He's already shown some serious guts since the restart, and he's currently T-22, so it's not like he needs to go crazy on Saturday and Sunday. If he can avoid the big number (he's made two double bogeys this week), this is about as safe of a bet as you'll find. --CP
Round 3 Matchup: Michael Thompson (+120) over Bernd Wiesberger (William Hill) — This doesn’t sound exciting. But hear us out. Michael Thompson is known as being a phenomenal putter. He’s lost 2.75 strokes putting this far, per RickRunGood.com’s live strokes-gained scoreboard. Meanwhile, Bernd Wiesberger has lost strokes in every aspect of his game except putting (he’s gained almost five strokes with his putter). That’s a nearly impossible number to replicate, and I’d trust Thompson’s positive ball-striking numbers—plus his putting to come back to his long-term stats, rather than the Austrian keeping up these phenomenal putting stats. --SH
Round 3 Matchup: Thomas Pieters (+175, DraftKings) over Xander Schauffele (Tie no bet) — For Pieters, it was really just some shaky driving on the back nine that cost him on Friday. Xander Schauffele could very well be the guy who makes a huge move tomorrow, but he's far too big of a favorite here. Pieters has gained nearly 5 strokes on approach this week (Xander has only gained 0.75), and he's also gained strokes on the greens. If not for that bad back nine, you could argue he's been the most complete player in the field. Plus, he has great Ryder Cup experience, as well as a pair of top 10s in majors. And yet he's being priced like some journeyman pro who can't hang? It ain't right. Lot of value here with the 28-year-old from Belgium. --CP
Winning Score: Even par or worse (+126) (FanDuel Sportsbook) — Winged Foot is only going to play tougher and tougher as the weekend goes on. Hole locations will be difficult, the greens will firm up, and a 10- to 15-mph wind is expected on Saturday. Plus-odds on an even-par winning score or worse feels like it has a strong chance of cashing. --SH