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It’s way too early to look at the 2023 Super Bowl odds … so let’s look at the 2023 Super Bowl odds

February 14, 2022

Super Bowl LVI’s body isn’t even cold yet. We’re all still gushing over the halftime show and that Matthew Stafford dime. We’re still making value judgments on the blown calls and walking back and forth across Eli Apple’s limp body. Mock draft mania hasn’t even fired up in earnest yet. All of which is to say it is WAY too early to start looking at Super Bowl LVII odds ... not that that’s stopped us before.

OK, so there's nothing earth-shattering about those first two. The Chiefs, at +700, have been the cream of the AFC crop since Patrick Mahomes took the reins and should return a similar core in 2022. They’re in the bottom third of the league in terms of cap space, but at this point you’re not betting against Mahomes and Andy Reid, even if that second-half AFC Championship collapse against the Bengals proves to be the “beginning of the end” in hindsight. The Bills, who looked like the better team apart from 13 seconds in their divisional showdown against Kansas City, match the Chiefs at +700. This felt like a bit of a hangover year for the Bills after 2020, but they caught fire late. If they look like the second-half team of 2021 all of 2022, then only bad Bills juju can stop them.

The Cowboys at +1200, even with the defending-Super-Bowl-champion Los Angeles Rams, are good for a laugh, but things get interesting with the Packers at +1500. That’s pretty high for a team that could well be starting Jordan Love come September. Does that suggest there’s optimism Aaron Rodgers could return in 2022? Maybe … but then there’s the small matter of the Denver Broncos, who clock in at +2000 according to DraftKings.

The Broncos haven’t had a winning record since 2016. They, like the Seahawks, Vikings, and Steelers, have quietly slipped into mediocrity, too afraid to blow it all up and unable to move forward until they do. There’s no reason they should be the ninth-likeliest Super Bowl contender next season … unless for Rodgers. The prevailing belief is that Rodgers’ time in Green Bay is over and the first landing spot to be rumored was Denver, who just hired former Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett as their new head coach. Is this the smoke that eventually leads us to the Aaron-Rodgers-destination fire? It’s the only thing that would make any sense.

Of course, it’s just as likely that Rodgers ends up in San Francisco (+1500 here despite presumably rolling with an unproven Trey Lance in 2023) ... or Arizona ... or just packs it in and retires altogether. If you want our advice? Wait. At least until free agency (and probably until after the draft) to bet your NFL futures. After all, value don't mean jack if you’re wrong.