Gambling
Wyndham Championship 2020 DFS picks: The case against Brooks Koepka this week
(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Sheesh, we’ve finally caught our breath from that thrilling PGA Championship, and it’s time to focus on picking some winning DFS lineups for the Wyndham Championship. Sedgefield Country Club has hosted this event every year since 2008. That means course history is strong, and we know it’s going to take a lot of birdies to win this golf tournament. The past four winners have all been 20-under or deeper, and there’s no reason to think that doesn’t continue this week. The final tournament of the PGA Tour regular season means that there will be plenty of shuffling in FedEx Cup points to see who will be taking their talents to TPC Boston next week.
Here are my favorite upside plays and who to avoid in your DraftKings/FanDuel or fantasy golf lineups this week.
$9,000+
High Upside: Patrick Reed ($10,700 DraftKings | $11,600 FanDuel)
Reed is a competitor who doesn’t care about the strength of the field. Another solid T-13 last week at the PGA Championship marked his third top 15 in the restart, all coming in the three deepest fields. Reed’s putter can carry him at times; he ranks fifth in this field in strokes gained/putting, and he’s not afraid to go low. He’s third in the field in Birdie or Better Percentage and he gains strokes in all four major strokes-gained categories.
Safest Option: Harris English ($9,300 DraftKings | $10,900 FanDuel)
Harris English has been sneaky-good since the restart. Per the RickRunGood.com database, he has averaged 1.63 strokes gained per round since the tour’s return. That’s the best mark of anyone in this field. It has translated to four consecutive top-20 finishes, including a T-19 last week at the PGA Championship. He also has seven top 20s in his past eight starts, dating back to the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Most Likely To Disappoint: Brooks Koepka ($11,400 DraftKings | $12,200 FanDuel)
When you’re the highest-priced golfer on the slate, expectations are high. Koepka was living up to those expectations through three rounds at the PGA Championship before shooting a 74 on Sunday, the second-worst score recorded of anyone in the field. Most concerning, Koepka lost 1.48 strokes off-the-tee in that final round, the most in any single round since the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He will need to plug the leaks quickly because at this price, winning is what you expect.
Pick To Win: Webb Simpson ($11,200 DraftKings | $11,900 FanDuel)
Simpson will likely be the highest-owned golfer in DFS contests this week, and for good reason. His course history is elite, boasting a victory and six other top-10 finishes in his past 10 trips to Greensboro. Sedgefield Country Club doesn’t require distance and benefits golfers who can find the fairway off the tee. Simpson has no problem finding the short grass and leads the field in Birdie or Better Percentage. That will come in handy when the winning score has been -20 or better in each of the last four years.
$8,000 to $9,000
High Upside: Si Woo Kim ($8,600 DraftKings | $10,100 FanDuel)
If you want risk, meet Si Woo Kim! He’s been the epitome of “feast of famine” for nearly his entire career, but he’s found a semblance of consistency recently—entering this week with seven consecutive cuts made. He’s your 2016 champion of this event and finished fifth last year, so Sedgefield Country Club provides plenty of good vibes for Kim.
Safest Option: Chez Reavie ($8,400 DraftKings | $9,800 FanDuel)
Reavie made his six consecutive cut last week, though he struggled to a T-75 on the weekend, still shows his consistency, which includes three top 25s in his last four starts. Sedgefield Country Club offers a much better fit for Reavie, whose game is to hit fairways and get dialed-in with his irons. He gains the most strokes from tee to green of any golfer who hits at least 69.5 percent of their fairways. If he can find a warm putter for a few days, Reavie can make plenty of noise in this weaker field.
Most Likely To Disappoint: Brandt Snedeker ($8,200 DraftKings |$10,000 FanDuel)
The course history folks love Snedeker, the Wyndham Championship winner in 2018 and 2007. He shot a 59 in 2018 and has four other top-10 finishes here. The problem for Snedeker is that he hasn’t finished inside the top 20 in any of his last nine events, and he has missed the cut five times in that stretch. He has only gained strokes off the tee once in his past 17 events and is relying on his short game to provide even mediocre results. That’s a bad combination for a guy who will get the course-history bump in ownership this week.
(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Pick To Win: Brendon Todd ($8,900 DraftKings | $10,500 FanDuel)
The Course Key Stats model at RickRunGood.com shows three important stats for success at Sedgefield Country Club: Driving accuracy, Birdie or Better Percentage and strokes gained/ putting. Todd ranks third in driving accuracy, 45th in Birdie or Better Percentage and 13th in Strokes Gained/putting. He’s one of the few golfers who are above the tour average in all three of the critical categories. I know he’s struggled on the weekend in recent weeks, but he still has two wins this season and three straight top 25s leading into the Wyndham Championship.
$7,000 to $8,000
High Upside: Doc Redman ($7,800 DraftKings | $9,300 FanDuel)
Redman is known as a great ball-striker, but I don’t think people realize *how good* he actually is. If you look at only his irons, he ranks 15th in strokes gained/approach (+0.79) since the restart. That’s 15th on the PGA Tour, not only the players in this field. Then you add in another 0.20 strokes per round off-the-tee, and you have a guy who can get you to the green as well as almost anyone. His success will rely on the short game, but Redman piques my interest in this range.
Safest Option: Lucas Glover ($7,300 DraftKings | $9,100 FanDuel)
It’s difficult to make the case for a safe option who has missed two straight cuts, but I’ll do my best for Glover. He’s one of the better players in the field from tee-to-green and had four top 25s in his first four starts in the restart. He’s played great in Greensboro, notching three more top 30s in his last four starts and eight top 25s in his 15 trips to the Wyndham Championship.
Most Likely To Disappoint: J.T. Poston ($7,800 DraftKings | $9,800 FanDuel)
The defending champion almost always gets an ownership boost, and that will likely be the case with Poston this week. He sprinted out of the gate of the restart with back-to-back top 10s at Colonial and Harbour Town, but he doesn’t have a finish inside the top 30 in his five events since. He’s missed the cut in three of those. The big concern is that he’s lost 0.88 strokes on approach per round since the restart. That’s the worst mark of anyone with at least 20 rounds played in that timeframe.
Pick To Win: Dylan Frittelli ($7,900 DraftKings | $8,200 FanDuel)
I love golfers who play well from tee-to-green, and Frittelli certainly fits that description. Per the RickRunGood.com database, he’s averaging +1.03 strokes per round from tee to green since the tour’s restart. That’s the ninth-best mark on tour of any golfer who has played as many rounds as he has (22). In terms of results, he finished T-33 last week at the PGA Championship and had back-to-back top 25s at the 3M Open and the Memorial, his two events leading into the PGA Championship.
$6,900 and below
High Upside: Troy Merritt ($6,800 DraftKings | $8,400 FanDuel)
Merritt was certainly a trap last week that we correctly avoided as he missed the cut at the PGA Championship. Now, looking at a much weaker field and Merritt’s skill-set, he becomes much more appealing. It was just two weeks ago that Merritt finished runner-up at the Barracuda Championship, his second top-eight finish in his last six starts. He has also missed the cut three times in that span, so do not confuse upside with consistency.
Safest Option: Brice Garnett ($6,700 DraftKings | $8,500 FanDuel)
Garnett has two top-26 finishes in his past four starts and has finished sixth, 20th and 20th in his last three trips to Greensboro. When it comes to “safety” in this range, Garnett certainly appears safer than most of his peers. He game is solid all-around, and while he doesn’t have any elite skill-set, he doesn’t have an obvious leak in his game either.
Most Likely To Disappoint: Keith Mitchell ($6,800 DraftKings | $8,300 FanDuel)
As a PGA TOUR winner and somewhat-popular DFS option, Mitchell will likely garner more ownership than he should in this price range. Since the restart, Mitchell only has one finish inside the top 40, a T-22 at The Memorial. In those seven events, he’s missed the cut four times and is bleeding strokes from tee-to-green.
Pick To Win: Kyle Stanley ($6,800 DraftKings | $8,500 FanDuel)
I can’t remember the last time I considered Kyle Stanley for lineups, but here we are. The key metrics for Sedgefield Country Club fit Stanley’s game, which is led by his great approach play. He does have two top-15 finishes in Greensboro in his past three trips, and he finished 12th in his last event on tour, the Barracuda Championship. You could certainly do much worse than Stanley in this range!
Rick Gehman, founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.