Every year before the Memorial, Jack Nicklaus holds court with the media, where he’s usually quizzed about a range of topics and offers his insight into the game and the tournament he hosts. This year was no different.
During his Tuesday press conference, a journalist asked the 18-time major winner to pick his favorite hole at Muirfield Village. While it’s probably like asking him to pick his favourite child, Jack gave an interesting answer.
“I love short par 4s. I think 3 is a great little short par 4. I think 14 is a great little short par 4. I always thought they were the most fun holes to play because anybody can play them. You don't have to be long. You have options.”
Options. That got me thinking.
The 14th hole at Muirfield Village ranges from 340 to 370 yards depending on tee and pin positions and is in range for the longer hitters to take on the green.
See here, there were more than 25 attempts to hit the green at the Memorial last year.
But the third hole is 395 yards. What options do players have then? Back to Jack.
“You could actually drive the ball at 3. I don't like to see people drive it at 3, but they can. It's there if you want to do it.”
Drive the green? From 395 yards? Before I scoffed at Nicklaus’ suggestion I took a look at the data.
As it turns out, the hole is not “technically” 395 yards. As you see here, if you play it as it’s laid out in front of you—down the fairway and then across to the green—it plays 395 yards. However, if you go straight at the green, it’s only 335 yards to the front edge.
While 335 yards is out of range for the vast majority of even the best players in the world, the data showed that there is another option on the third hole, one that Viktor Hovland has leveraged in recent years.
Hovland has always done things his own way, from swing changes to coaches to theories about UFOs and his taste in heavy metal music. And, well, the third hole at Muirfield Village.
Let me explain.
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First, let’s look at the green and the typical pin positions used during the tournament.
As you can see the shape of the green, similar to the 12th hole at Augusta National, stretches diagonally from front left to back right. That shape can be challenging to right-handed golfers, as this episode of Game Plan suggests.
If you hit your drive into the fairway, your second shot has to travel over the water and, if the pin is in the back portion of the green, just 9 yards deep, it can be difficult to get it close. Despite that, nearly every player will take this approach, hitting a long iron off the tee.
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This is where the other “option” comes in.
Left of the fairway and across the water from the third hole, is the short par-3 fourth hole at Muirfield Village. Open space, with three, finely cut teeing areas. You can see where this is going, can’t you?
If the pin on the third hole is positioned in the back portion of the green, players “could” drive their ball towards the fourth tee and open up a better angle to the hole. Yes, before you point it out, there are small trees behind the fourth tee and thick rough around the teeing area. However, the angle still remains there.
Who, you ask, would be bold enough to take this approach?
Hovland, of course. And he has a history of this sort of thing. Do you remember his strategy on the 15th hole at Riviera Country Club in recent years?
But back to Muirfield Village. Heading into the final round of the 2023 Memorial, Hovland was one shot behind the trio of co-leaders in Rory McIlroy, Si Woo Kim and David Lipsky. There were 13 players within two shots of the lead. Hovland needed to find an edge.
After pars at the opening two holes, he stood on the third tee and made a decision. He had an “option.” Hovland hit his drive 280 yards. Left. Way left. It finished here, in the rough, on the side of the fourth tee.
“Was that by design or did he pull it?” said CBS commentator Frank Nobilo live on-air.
“No, it was a massive pull.” replied Colt Knost, the on-course analyst.
However, I don’t believe it was.
Hovland’s ball finished 74 yards from the middle of the fairway. While I know all pros are prone to big misses, I believe Hovland was playing the angles. The pin was positioned in the back right section of green.
Why do I think he meant to hit it here? Answer, he did it the year before. Twice.
In the opening round of the 2022 Memorial, the pin was again in this back right position. Instead of playing to the fairway, Hovland hit a 304-yard drive down the fourth hole, left 80 yards, hit it to 11 feet and made a birdie.
Again, in the final round, the pin was in a similar spot and he once again took it down the fourth hole. This time coming to rest 295 yards from the tee, leaving 96 yards to hole, where he hit it to 15 feet, but settled for par.
But back to 2023 and Hovland over by the fourth tee. From the rough, he hit his approach, which landed it on the front of the green and rolled the ball towards to the pin, finishing just nine feet from the hole.
“This is an unbelievable shot.” Knost said as the ball landed on the front of the putting surface. “I can’t tell you how good that was.”
Hovland made the putt, and tied the lead.
After a roller coaster of a final round for all involved, Hovland found himself in a play-off with Denny McCarthy and ultimately won on the first extra hole.
So, will we see more people taking this “option” on the third hole this year?
Recent data suggests Nicklaus might be right. From 2015 to 2020, only two shots finished in this area off the tee (Rory Sabbatini and Aphibarnrat in 2019). In the last four editions of the tournament, there have been 14 attempts.
Hovland has tried it the most, with three attempts. Justin Thomas also did it twice in 2021, both times the pin was in the back of the green. Of those five attempts, Hovland and Thomas have played the hole in four-under par.
Asked this week whether he would attempt the strategy again, Justin Thomas joked “I think Jack got wind of it, and now there some of the longest rough in Ohio there.”
But that didn’t stop Viktor in 2023. Will anyone take it on this week at Muirfield Village? Keep an eye out for headcovers coming off on the tee.