Longshots
July 02, 2019

The most popular bet for NFL MVP is a guy that is probably not going to win NFL MVP (but, VALUE!)

NFL Pro Bowl

NFL Pro Bowl

ORLANDO, FL - JANUARY 27: Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas Cith Chiefs (L) and Deshaun Watson #4 of the Houston Texans (R) from the AFC Team pose with Mitchell Trubisky #10 (C) of the Chicago Bears from the NFC Team at mid-field after the NFL Pro Bowl Game at Camping World Stadium on January 27, 2019 in Orlando, Florida. The AFC defeated the NFC 26 to 7. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Patrick Mahomes; Mitchell Trubisky; Deshaun Watson

Photo by: Don Juan Moore

Don Juan Moore

Chicago Bears third-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky appears like he is going to be a nice player for a long time. He made a great jump from his rookie to sophomore seasons in every statistical category, including the most important one: winning. In year two he went 11-3 as a starter, posted a TD:INT ratio of 24:12 and rushed for over 400 yards and three touchdowns and had the Bears a double doink away from facing the L.A. Rams in the Divisional round. All signs point to another year of improvement for the UNC product, and with the Bears current roster construction, maybe even a run at the Super Bowl.

What about an NFL MVP Award? Ok, ok, let's pump the brakes.

Well, actually, gamblers are not pumping the brakes at all. In fact, according to Caesars Palace, Trubisky is currently their most popular bet to win NFL MVP. That'd be some third-year JUMP:

Of course, this does not mean Trubisky is the favorite, not by any stretch. That designation belongs to Patrick Mahomes at 4/1, followed by Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck at 8/1, then Drew Brees and Carson Wentz at 10/1 (Tom Brady is at 12/1, calm down Pats fans). Trubisky is a distant 200/1, which is why he is so popular of a bet, because of the "value."

Will Trubisky win the NFL MVP? Almost certainly not, but at those odds, it's a very attractive bet. He showed noticeable improvement a season ago under the tutelage of now second-year head coach Matt Nagy, whose offensive style closely resembles that of his former boss Andy Reid, who knows a thing or two about putting points on the board and just had a first-year starter in Mahomes win the MVP. Nagy's offense, which incorporates plenty of short, quick passes that result in big gains thanks to the speedy weapons on the field, gives Trubisky no choice but to thrive in year three.

Add in the fact that Trubisky is one of the more mobile quarterbacks in the NFL, and this bet gets even sexier. They'll probably want him to run less given injury concerns, but he should still be good for a few rushing touchdowns and some decent yardage. If Trubisky plays a whole season, cuts his interception count in half and improves in the other categories, there is no reason he can't be in the conversation, which makes his 200/1 odds feel like they should be around 80/1 or even 60/1. That's where the value comes in and that's why he's garnering some action.

I've drank the kool aid and I will be hopping in on this one. What you've just read is a degenerate talking himself into a bet he would have never made otherwise. MITCH FOR MVP!