The Return of The Ryder Cup Radicals: How the U.S. and European teams look after the U.S. Open

Believe it or not, we’re just three months and change from the 45th Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black, which means it’s just about time to start obsessing about every detail—who’s making it automatically, who’s getting a captain’s pick and, of course, which team will win on Long Island. Today, we’ve assembled two of our greatest Ryder Cup minds to start the debate. Luke Kerr-Dineen is a sort of Transatlantic titan straddling the two continents, but whose loyalties lie with Europe, while Shane Ryan is a born-and-bred New Yorker who, if you cut him, bleeds red, white and blue (the American kind, not the Union Jack kind). This will be the first of a series of exchanges analyzing the Ryder Cup almost, but not quite, to death. We begin with Luke.

Luke: Shane, Shane, Shane. My sweet boy, Shane.

How do you feel as the walls slowly close in around you? We’re three majors down now in 2025, and the only remaining one outside the U.S.

Let’s start with how our teams stack up, because this was an important bullet. The U.S. Open was a big potential points grab for various established players currently floundering down the American ranks, on what was in many ways a comparable course fit in Oakmont.

Instead, it was journeyman J.J. Spaun who locked up his spot. Yes, I’m happy for J.J. on a human level, but surely you must’ve been secretly hoping one of your bigger names on the outside of the qualifying in the qualifiers would’ve shown a little more? It seems like it’s becoming Portrush or bust for a bunch of big names players that need to help out Captain Keegan Bradley by securing automatic spots, rather than trying to justify being a captain’s pick.

Meanwhile, it remains boom times in the European side. Two Europeans in the top three (Robert MacIntyre and Viktor Hovland), and two more in the top seven (Tyrrell Hatton and Jon Rahm), all victorious in Rome.

Shane:

[long, slow, sarcastic clap]

That's for you, Luke. It's my way of congratulating you and Europe for winning the mythical "February Ryder Cup," a fake honor for the team that has a slew of players in good form eight months before it really matters. I want to give you these accolades for the past, because the present must be a pretty frightening and confusing place.

Regardless of who finished third or whatever at Oakmont, I couldn't help but notice that for the second straight major, it was an American hoisting the trophy. Last time it was the golden god of golf, Scottie Scheffler, who is fearsome enough all on his own, but this time it was the vicious L.A. terrier, Spaun, who has now secured automatic qualification. And you know what I say to that? GREAT. We don't stand on reputation or tradition on this side of the pond, and after watching Spaun hold tough for 72 holes at Sawgrass, and then conquer Oakmont against a cast of giants, I absolutely want the guy on the team. Big names are all well and good, but I want guys who are in form and tough, and that's why I love Spaun, and I love another guy who was around most of the week—Ben Griffin. He's now shown tremendous form at Memorial, Colonial and Oakmont, three big boy courses that are about as good a bellwether as we can get for Bethpage Black.

Now, I do have to push back against your premise, because the rest of the U.S. top six right now is honcho central: Scottie, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa. That's plenty of big names, and now you have a couple months for guys like Jordan Spieth, who are starting to show form, to prove something to Keegan and knock out some lesser-knowns of the top 12 like Andrew Novak. There's still plenty of room for guys like him, Sam Burns and Patrick Cantlay—and maybe even Bradley himself—who aren't in the top 12 right now.

Now, let's turn the microscope back on your lot. You gotta love seeing Viktor look so good, and ditto for Hatton and Bobby Mac, and … OK, I get your point, there's some depth there. However, give me your level of concern about Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg. At this rate, is Rory going to have to be a vice captain to make room for Thomas Detry? Will Shane Lowry remember to mark his ball in Long Island? Should the entire European team just be Danish?

On a serious note, which LIV guys are in play on your side? Rahm and Hatton looks solid, but does Sergio Garcia have a prayer? And as you look down the list and see a lot of newer names in the top 12, how much will captain Luke Donald have to rely on veteran presence and snub the young guns?

Luke: Shane, my concern level with Rory is somewhere in the 3ish out of 10 range. I think he's simply burnt out right now and needs some time away. My prediction is that he'll push through the Open Championship then step away for a bit and come back fresh and ready to open a can of Whoop Ass on every American in the Long Island area starting Sept. 26. Rory himself said the Ryder Cup has become a kind of North Star for him after the Masters. It's becoming a legacy play.

Don't get cheeky about Ludvig, who is clearly some kind of golf supercomputer. Sure you may need to restart it every now and again, but your main concern isn't some strange bug in the code, but at which point he's going to take over the planet.

The problem with LIV players is that it's simply hard to get a read on them on a week-in, week-out basis. They need to compliment those weeks with some good performance in a major. It's something of an unfair double standard, but that seems to be the vibe. I've made the case Sergio should be on this team, but his major performances don't clear that bar. He needs to play well at Portrush to get into the conversation.

Back to you, Shane. What do you want to see—and from who—from the rest of your guys between now and then?

Shane: Let me put it this way, Luke—I think the current top six will be on the team no matter what happens. That's Scheffler, Schauffele, Spaun, Bryson, JT, and Morikawa. Nothing is keeping those guys away. The drama now centers on everyone else, because I don't really think anyone else is an absolute lock. Here are a few things what I would want to see, if I were Keegan:

• Russell Henley keeps up his solid form. He was great with Scheffler at the Presidents Cup in Montreal in a way that Burns has not been, and that's such a critical part of the game plan. Your No. 1 has to be able to deliver points in the foursomes and four-balls. The U.S. went through a literal decade of every single thing they drew up with Tiger either failing miserably (Phil Mickelson) or just being so-so (Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker), and they just can't afford the same thing happening with Scheffler. Right now, you have to operate as though Henley is the answer, so the worst thing would be for him to fall out of form.

• Patrick Cantlay has a great late summer. The guy is just such a killer at these events, you want him on that team.

• Spieth keeps figuring it out and posts at least one or two very good results, or maybe a win. Any time you can have his presence there in the locker room, you want it.

Aside from that, I think Ben Griffin is as close to a lock as they come, and like Spaun, I'm good with that—he keeps playing well at really hard courses, as I said above, and the pressure doesn't seem to get to him. Then there are the middling guys right now like Mav McNealy, Harris English, Novak and Brian Harman, who are all in the top 12 but likely won't qualify automatically. In Rome, Zach Johnson ended up picking players 7-12 for his captain's picks, but I don't think that'll happen this year—those guys are going to have to show something between now and Bethpage, or they'll get passed over for players with experience.

The one player who at least made himself slightly interesting this past week was Brooks Koepka. Bradley won't feel any pressure to take him, since he's already got a LIV guy in Bryson, but he's the only other American on LIV right now with a real shot. Like Sergio, though, I think he's very much on the outside looking in, so it's all going to come down to Portrush, where he'll need to do something spectacular.

OK Luke, give me your final thoughts, and let's round this out with our teams as things currently stand. Here's the American side I'd pick if I had to do it today:

Scottie Scheffler

Xander Schauffele

J.J. Spaun

Bryson DeChambeau

Justin Thomas

Collin Morikawa

Russell Henley

Ben Griffin

Maverick McNealy

Patrick Cantlay

Sam Burns

Jordan Spieth

Luke: There’s where I suspect you’re just being a little more rosey than I would be in your situation, Shane. JT, Spieth, Brooks, Cantlay are four pretty big names not playing up to their usual standard in a Ryder Cup year. Bradley finds himself trending towards a decision where he needs to decide between big name past performers and in-form but inexperienced names. Those are the most flammable decisions that Ryder Cup captains have to make.

My checklist on the other side would be simple:

• I hope Rory does, indeed, take some time off and reboot pre-Ryder Cup as I think he will.

• Outside of that, most of the European team is seemingly set, but there are about two spots that still need to be cleaned up. Some combination of Aaron Rai, Justin Rose, Rasmus Hojgaard or Thomas Detry will get in. The latter three have all shown glimpses of their high ceilings, but I’d like to see more consistency on a week-in, week-out basis. Rai has done the opposite: He has the consistency, but he’d need a breakout win to lock up his spot. But again, nitpicking about your 11th and 12th guys is a good problem to have.

• If I’m really getting greedy, I’d love a breakout candidate to emerge as the form player. Matt Fitzpatrick is probably the best candidate, but don’t sleep on Matt Wallace or Nicolai Hojgaard.

In all, I feel good. I can’t remember the last time a European team was this strong from top to bottom. And with all the pressure piled onto the U.S. team to win it back on home soil, I’m not sure you could really ask more from a European Team perspective at this point.

My 12:

Rory McIlroy

Viktor Hovland

Tyrrell Hatton

Jon Rahm

Ludvig Aberg

Tommy Fleetwood

Sepp Straka

Bobby MacIntrye

Aaron Rai

Shane Lowry

Justin Rose

Rasmus Hojgaard