Closer LookFebruary 5, 2018

Ranking Rickie Fowler’s five blown 54-hole leads, from ‘not his fault’ to ‘should’ve won’

Waste Management Phoenix Open - Final Round
Robert Laberge

There are a lot of stats to like about Rickie Fowler’s career so far: Seven top-five finishes in majors, eight professional wins worldwide, more than $30 million in on-course earnings and it’s been almost four years since he’s dipped outside the top 20 of the Official World Golf Ranking.

But with a T-11 in the Waste Management Phoenix Open after coming into the final round as the solo leader, a less flattering stat began making the rounds: Of the six PGA Tour events Fowler has either led or co-led coming into the final round, he’s only converted one (the 2017 Honda Classic) into a victory — a paltry 17 percent.

To be fair, the depth of talent on today’s PGA Tour means converting 54-hole leads is harder than you might think. Last season just 27 percent of third round leaders went on to win. In the last five years, 54-hole leaders only convert more than they don’t once their lead stretches to four or more shots or more, per the Golf Channel’s Justin Ray.

Nevertheless, Rickie’s low conversion rate stands out. He’s undoubtedly an elite player, so why isn’t he converting these leads more? Not even that; why isn’t he even converting at the PGA Tour’s average? Is he struggling under pressure or simply unlucky?

Because no two situations are the same, let’s break down the five 54-hole leads Rickie has squandered so far in his PGA Tour career and rank them based on how bad the blown lead was.

5. 2010 Memorial Tournament

Situation: Leading by three shots heading into the final round, Fowler finished the tournament second to Justin Rose, losing by three.

Holding this one against Fowler would be harsh. It was the then-21 year-old’s first 54-hole lead since turning professional the year before. He gave a good account of himself until a double bogey at the 12th, but even then recovered with birdies on 15 and 16. Rose’s bogey-free round was simply too good. Chalk this one down to ‘all part of the process.’

4. 2016 Barclays

Situation: With an automatic Ryder Cup spot on the line, Fowler led by one over Patrick Reed but finished T-7 after a Sunday 74.

A sketchy final round from Rickie, but I’m willing to give him a slight pass. With the Ryder Cup hype festering in the background, there was a lot of pressure around him that extended beyond the tournament itself. It’d be tough for anybody to deal with.

3. 2018 Waste Management Phoenix Open

Situation: Solo 54-hole leader by one over Jon Rahm, his final round 73 dropped him all the way down to T-11

His two-over final round was undoubtedly disappointing, and doubled as one of the few over par rounds on an otherwise scorable day. Demanding he win is probably unfair, but at this point in his career, it’s slightly surprising he didn’t perform slightly better. This could’ve easily been one spot higher in the rankings; it isn’t because his eventual T-11 finish was partly the product of the very tightly-packed, talented leader board around him.

2. 2016 Wells Fargo Championship

Situation: Solo leader by one heading into Sunday, Fowler shot 74 to drop into T-4.

Fowler was the headliner coming into Sunday and promptly flamed out. The two chasing him -- James Hahn and Roberto Castro -- stuck around and eventually settled things in a playoff. Meanwhile, Fowler’s two-over 74 was the highest final round score of anybody inside the top 24.

1. 2011 AT&T National

Situation: Co-leader heading into Sunday, a four-over 74 on Sunday dropped him to T-13.

A good old-fashioned implosion. After a 64 the day before, he finished 10 shots higher on Sunday, tying the worst round of any player inside the top 30.