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Masters 2025: 18 unique trends that predict Masters success
Not only is the Masters the most beloved and distinguished tournament in golf, but it is also the only major championship that is played at the same course every single year. With “course history” being a relevant topic for every PGA Tour event, its importance this week takes on an added proportion. According to DataGolf, course history is the most predictive at Augusta National compared to any other course by a large margin.
Even though trends were meant to be broken, these specific tendencies for Augusta National have actual relevance with regard to the recipe that it takes to have success in winning The Masters. They are not random facts or based on recency bias. Though the sample size for some would preferably be larger, the majority go back in time at least 15 years with the lowest trend at an astonishingly high 81 percent success rate. And while a few of these trends (like a golfer’s betting odds or world ranking) are not necessarily predictive, they still hold meaning and value when trying to fit together all the pieces of the puzzle when analyzing which players best fit the winners’ profile.
Instead of eliminating players because they do not fit one or more of the 18 trends below, it makes much more sense to add up the total and see which players fit the greatest number. As one can imagine, the players from LIV will be at a disadvantage in some of these, especially the ones related to current form. For the metric-related trends (driving distance, putting, par-5 scoring, etc.), in order to keep this as fair as possible, their cumulative three-year data rankings in majors and PGA Tour events were used. Also, the six “older” former winners: Angel Cabrera, Bernhard Langer, Fred Couples, Jose Maria Olazabal, Mike Weir, and Vijay Singh were graciously excluded from the data.
Thus, we embark on the journey to see which of the 96 players in the Masters’ field will be left standing as the “Masters Trends champion.”
More from Golf Digest
Trends #1-4 – Masters Experience
- 45 of the last 45 winners had played in at least one previous Masters Tournament
- 26 of the last 27 winners made the cut at the Masters the year before they won
- 25 of the last 27 winners had finished 30th or better in a previous Masters Tournament
- 21 of the last 26 winners had played in at least three previous Masters before their win
Why this trend matters: Along with course experience at Augusta National being more important than at any other course, players constantly speak about the learning curve that is necessary to have success here. Whether it’s knowing where to miss below the hole on a particular approach shot or having a memory bank in your mind of how putts break on certain holes, the more repetitions players gain, the better their chances are to win. As 2018 winner Patrick Reed said, “It truly is a ‘course knowledge’ golf course. You need to know where to put the ball on certain pins and if you miss you need to miss it in certain spots because there’s some areas around here that it’s literally impossible, unless you make a 15‑, 18‑footer.”
No Masters debutant has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. To extend the value of playing experience at Augusta even further, 21 of the last 26 winners had played in at least three previous Masters before their win. Per that same Data Golf course history study, a player experiences significant jumps in performance in their 3rd, 7th, and 9th Masters. One peaks at the Masters in their 9th appearance and continues to enjoy sustained success up through their 13th appearance. The other trends in this group equate to some level of previous success on this course, whether simply making the cut or having successful finishes in prior years.
Players who fit all four of these trends: Adam Scott, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Byeong Hun An, Cameron Smith, Cameron Young, Chris Kirk, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Danny Willett, Harris English, Hideki Matsuyama, J.T. Poston, Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, Jon Rahm, Keegan Bradley, Lucas Glover, Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, Min Woo Lee, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele.
Trends #5-7 – Do You Know That Winning Feeling?
- 14 of the last 16 winners had at least four previous career PGA Tour wins
- 14 of the last 16 winners had won a tournament on U.S. soil within the two years leading up to their Masters’ win
- 13 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top-6 of a major tournament within the two years leading up to their Masters win
Why this trend matters: The experience that comes with winning tournaments along with the pressure and everything that goes into those occurrences has shown to be a necessary prerequisite for becoming a Masters champion. And not only that, being in contention in a recent major also seems to add to a player’s confidence in having success in future “big-stage” events. In a pressure-packed moment of time as critical as contending during “Sunday at the Masters”, being able to draw from the scar tissue of those past failures and experiences is an edge that can push a player over the top to a Green Jacket celebration.
Players who fit all three of these trends: Brian Harman, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele.
More from Golf Digest
Trends #8-11 – Current Tee-to-Green Form is Vital
- 13 of the last 13 winners had gained at least 18 total strokes tee-to-green in the four events prior to their Masters’ win
- 15 of the last 15 winners ranked inside the top 30 in SG: T2G in the year leading up to their Masters’ win
- 15 of the last 15 winners had finished 35th or better in their previous start before the Masters
- 14 of the last 15 winners had at least one top-8 finish in the seven events prior to the Masters
Why this trend matters: Recent form is everything in golf. History has proven that players entering Masters week in superb form have a much better chance at success than those coming in struggling with their game. This has been exemplified in the past with a player’s Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (T2G) in the four events leading up to their Masters win. The T2G metric measures a player’s strokes gained off-the-tee, on approach, and around the green. It does not use putting as part of the equation. Putting is extremely volatile with some of the best putters having bad weeks and the worst putters having tournaments that spike high above their typical baseline.
Both history and Rabbit Hole research show that being an elite ball-striker is the quickest way to the top of major championship leaderboards. Gaining strokes off-the-tee and especially on approach is the foundation. Combine that with the necessary touch that is needed chipping from tight lies around the treacherous Augusta National greens and it’s easy to see why T2G is so vital this week.
Here are the SG: T2G totals for the last 13 Masters winners in the four tournaments leading up to their victory.
2024: Scottie Scheffler - 47.2
2023: Jon Rahm - 22.7
2022: Scottie Scheffler – 20.1
2021: Hideki Matsuyama – 18.5
2020: Dustin Johnson – 36.1
2019: Tiger Woods – 22.2
2018: Patrick Reed – 18.0
2017: Sergio Garcia – 31.4
2016: Danny Willett – 18.2
2015: Jordan Spieth – 28.6
2014: Bubba Watson – 37.9
2013: Adam Scott – 24.2
2012: Bubba Watson – 40.9
*To solve the issue of LIV players participating in fields of only 54 golfers, the finish position of their last start was multiplied by three to adjust for the size of a normal PGA Tour event
Players who fit all four of these trends: Bryson DeChambeau, Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa, Lucas Glover, Robert Macintyre, Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry.
Trend #12 – Bombs Away
- 15 of the last 16 winners ranked inside the top 50 in “Driving Distance” in the year leading up to their Masters win
Why this trend matters: Simply put, Augusta National is a “bombers” paradise. When Bobby Jones was designing Augusta National he wanted golfers to “have an unrestricted feeling of being able to swing away amid a wide swath of parkland”. When analyzing the numbers off the tee, the data most definitely bears that out. Players are free to bomb away with driver on fairways that are 50+ yards wide and without any fear of thick rough or water hazards of any kind. The average driving distance last year was one of the highest on Tour at 301.5 yards.
Last year, Augusta National was stretched out to its longest distance ever at 7,555 yards. At that length, it measures as the eighth longest course in the annual Tour rotation. And with the fairway grass traditionally being mown from green to tee in the opposite direction of the hole, rollout on drives is minimized. With easy-to-hit fairways and no harsh penalty from being in the minimal “second-cut” of rough, bombers have a distinct advantage. More than half of the driving holes also lack fairway bunkers. Increased distance off the tee also leads to higher-lofted irons when hitting approach shots into Augusta’s firm greens. Per the Rabbit Hole tool’s PGA data:
Players who fit this trend: Adam Scott, Bryson DeChambeau, Byeong Hun An, Cameron Young, Davis Riley, Davis Thompson, Jhonattan Vegas, Joaquin Niemann, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Kevin Yu, Ludvig Aberg, Max Greyserman, Min Woo Lee, Nicolai Hojgaard, Robert Macintyre, Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler, Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Pendrith, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark, Xander Schauffele.
Trends #13-14 – Feasting on the Par 5s is a Necessity
- 13 of the last 15 winners ranked inside the top 40 in “Par 5 Scoring” in the year leading up to their Masters win
- 13 of the last 16 winners ranked inside the top 40 in “Going for the Green %” in the year leading up to their Masters win
Why this trend matters: One of the most important areas players will have to conquer at Augusta National en route to victory will be dominating the four par 5s. The data supporting its importance is quite staggering. Since 2010, Par 5 scoring at the Masters accounts for 73 percent of the winners’ total output. In the last four years, this number jumps to 88 percent. In the chart below, you can see how each of the champions since 2010 has fared on the par 5s compared to their par 3/4 scoring.
With par-5 scoring being essential to success, added distance helps to ensure that players can reach each of the par 5s in two shots by hitting longer irons into the greens instead of fairway woods. Players with distance who are aggressive in “Going For the Green” with their second shot will have a huge edge on shorter and more conservative hitters.
Players who fit both of these trends: Adam Scott, Davis Thompson, Jhonattan Vegas, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Kevin Yu, Patrick Cantlay, Robert Macintyre, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Taylor Pendrith.
Trend #15 – Tight Sloping Lies Bring out the Best Short-Gamers
- 11 of the last 12 winners had gained at least 0.25 strokes per round “Around the Green” in the 16 rounds prior to their Masters win
Why this trend matters: Augusta National features some of the toughest greens to hold on approach. When greens are missed, this leads to some of the tightest lies from short grass areas that players will face all year. Whether chipping from a sloped lie to get into birdie position on a par 5 or simply scrambling to save par, Augusta National places more of a premium on short-game technique and skill than any other course. Hitting cleanly under the ball while attempting to control where it goes on these treacherous greens puts extra pressure on golfers who are oftentimes just trying to survive the hole. We looked at the Rabbit Hole data and picked out the best.
One of the best short-game players on Tour, Jason Day, gave a good example of the touch needed here. “Around the greens, you definitely have to have that touch. I always say you have to hit it hard enough but soft enough around here. If you get that, then you understand what it means to chip around Augusta. You could be hitting a chip shot and you might hit the same chip shot, one with less spin and one with more spin, and they could be 20, 30 feet apart, but you could hit it on the same line. So you have to be precise here.”
Here are the SG: Around the Green averages per round from the last 12 winners at Augusta National in their 16 rounds leading into the Masters tournament.
2024: Scottie Scheffler - 0.94
2023: Jon Rahm - 0.12
2022: Scottie Scheffler - 0.43
2021: Hideki Matsuyama - 0.66
2020: Dustin Johnson - 0.33
2019: Tiger Woods - 0.53
2018: Patrick Reed - 0.56
2017: Sergio Garcia - 0.38
2016: Danny Willett - 0.71
2015: Jordan Spieth - 0.63
2014: Bubba Watson - 0.26
2013: Adam Scott - 0.42
Players who fit this trend: Brian Campbell, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Smith, Charl Schwartzel, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Corey Conners, Daniel Berger, Danny Willett, Davis Riley, Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Max Greyserman, Michael Kim, Min Woo Lee, Nick Dunlap, Patrick Reed, Patton Kizzire, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Sahith Theegala, Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry, Stephan Jaeger, Sungjae Im, Wyndham Clark.
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Trend #16 – Elite Putter Not Required
- 15 of the last 17 winners ranked outside the top 50 in “SG: Putting” in the year leading up to their Masters win
Why this trend matters: First of all, this trend does not imply that you can’t be a highly-ranked putter to win the Masters. Jordan Spieth was ranked 9th back in 2015 and Jon Rahm was 20th in 2023. However, the average SG: Putting rank for the last 17 winners of the Masters has been 98th. Here’s the complete ranking list:
2024: Scottie Scheffler - 130
2023: Jon Rahm - 20
2022: Scottie Scheffler - 58
2021: Hideki Matsuyama – 175
2020: Dustin Johnson – 48
2019: Tiger Woods – 74
2018: Patrick Reed – 72
2017: Sergio Garcia – 162
2016: Danny Willett – 60
2015: Jordan Spieth – 9
2014: Bubba Watson – 109
2013: Adam Scott – 130
2012: Bubba Watson – 142
2011: Charl Schwartzel – 96
2010: Phil Mickelson – 133
2009: Angel Cabrera – 63
2008: Trevor Immelman – 191
Those same winners have ranked at an average of 14th place for putting average during the week they won their Green Jacket, which means that even though they are not known as being “great” putters they still had a quality week on the greens. The question then becomes, why do seemingly average-to-poor putters have so much overall success at Augusta National. We first need to start with how difficult putting is for everyone on these greens.
With so many putts being missed by everyone, the playing field levels very quickly. As former PGA Tour caddie, Brian Mull remarked, “Severely sloped greens with speed are a great equalizer of putting skill. If anything, these greens favor lag putters, those who like their ball to drop in over the front edge.”
Approach play at Augusta National is directly related to short-game play. According to a Golf Magazine study a few years ago, “3-10 foot putts are made at a higher rate than an average PGA Tour stop, perhaps because the greens are so pure. But move outside 10 feet and that advantage disintegrates.” The reason? The undulations combined with the speed of the greens mean that every foot further the ball is away from the hole the more tricky the putt becomes. Precise iron players who can stick their approaches within 10 feet have a huge advantage. Most past winners also ranked near the top of the leaderboard in SG: Approach for the week as well, which in turn made their putts easier.
A final factor is experience on these greens. Every trip to Augusta, every round played, every putt taken—it all adds up in a player’s memory bank. They know exactly where to miss on the greens in order to set up an easier uphill putt. This all connects with the “Masters Experience” trends. And thus, once players reach the greens, it all comes full circle.
Players who fit this trend: Aaron Rai, Adam Schenk, Austin Eckroat, Brian Campbell, Brian Harman, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Bubba Watson, Byeong Hun An, Cameron Davis, Cameron Young, Chris Kirk, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Daniel Berger, Danny Willett, Davis Thompson, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, J.J. Spaun, J.T. Poston, Jhonattan Vegas,, Joaquin Niemann, Joe Highsmith, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Kevin Yu, Laurie Canter, Lucas Glover, Ludvig Aberg, Matt McCarty, Matthieu Pavon, Max Homa, Michael Kim, Nick Dunlap, Nick Taylor, Nicolai Hojgaard, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, Patton Kizzire, Phil Mickelson, Rafael Campos, Rasmus Hojgaard, Rory McIlroy, Sahith Theegala, Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry, Stephan Jaeger, Tristan Lawrence, Tom Hoge, Tom Kim, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele.
Trend #17 – This Is Not Longshot Season
- 23 of the last 25 winners were ranked in the top 30 in the World Rankings
Why this trend matters: Time has proven that it takes a highly-skilled, world-class player to win the Masters. Yes, there have been outliers such as Angel Cabrera back in 2009 who was ranked 69th in the world. But for the most part, it’s an elite golfer that puts on the Green Jacket each year. From a betting perspective, the average odds of the past 15 winners have been +3200 which is in that upper mid-range area. Over the last six years, however, all but one winner (Matsuyama) has been +1600 or lower.
Players who fit this trend: Aaron Rai, Akshay Bhatia, Billy Horschel, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, J.J. Spaun, Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Lucas Glover, Ludvig Aberg, Maverick McNealy, Min Woo Lee, Nick Taylor, Patrick Cantlay, Robert Macintyre, Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Sahith Theegala, Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, Thomas Detry, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland, Wyndham Clark, Xander Schauffele.
Trend #18 – Back-to-Back Green Jackets is a Rare Feat
- 57 of the last 60 winners did not win the Masters the year before
Why this trend matters: The only winners to repeat the following season at the Masters were Jack Nicklaus (1965-1966), Nick Faldo (1989-1990), and Tiger Woods (2001-2002). Even with a “slow” start this year, Scheffler is coming off a 2024 campaign which saw him win seven times on the PGA Tour along with the Olympic gold medal. Though he is still the most feared golfer in the world and has won two of the last three Masters, Scheffler has his work cut out for him to win in consecutive years.
Players who fit this trend: All except Scottie Scheffler.
2025 Masters Trends Champion
Needing a Masters win to complete the coveted “Grand Slam” - the only player that fits all 18 trends is…Rory McIlroy. Scottie Scheffler finished second with 17. Bryson DeChambeau fit 16 trends. Rounding out the top five is Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay who tied with 15. Here are the standings for players that fit at least 11 trends:
Rory McIlroy – 18
Scottie Scheffler – 17
Bryson DeChambeau – 16
Jon Rahm – 15
Patrick Cantlay – 15
Xander Schauffele – 14
Russell Henley – 14
Shane Lowry – 14
Sepp Straka – 14
Hideki Matsuyama – 13
Collin Morikawa – 13
Justin Thomas – 13
Min Woo Lee – 13
Lucas Glover – 13
Ludvig Aberg – 12
Corey Conners – 12
Tony Finau – 12
Brooks Koepka – 11
Joaquin Niemann – 11
Jordan Spieth – 11
Robert Macintyre – 11
Viktor Hovland – 11
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