BMW Championship picks 2025: Our PGA pro loves Rory McIlroy's strategy this week
We have some great intel this week at Caves Valley. Keith Stewart, CEO of Read the Line and a member of our Golf Digest betting panel, travels to all the big PGA Tour events—getting boots-on-the-ground insights into how the players are prepping for the week. He’s had his eye on Rory McIlroy this week. He’s watched him tear apart Caves Valley in his practice rounds, and he’s pouncing on a bet accordingly. You don’t want to miss his insights below.
Our experts had it surrounded last week. Though we didn’t pick Justin Rose at a huge 100-1 price to win, we added to our impressive top-10 season-long performance, netting another 11.1 units collectively in the placement market. That puts our crew up 40 units on the year on top-10 bets … and yet again, that’s counting one of our authors going a mind-numbing 0-for-32 on his selections. (See his head-scratching top-10 pick below…)
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of Caves Valley Golf Club, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 BMW Championship:
BMW Championship picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the Week: Scottie Scheffler (+250, Bet365) — The caddie story is overblown. Scottie almost won with a priest on his bag last week. Mike Cromie is a professional caddie who has won with Chris Kirk. Scottie will be more than fine. He’s the best player in the field by a mile. I’d actually bet the house on Scottie not letting another victory slip away this week.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Ludvig Aberg (22-1, FanDuel) — The Swede hasn’t truly contended for some time now yet continues to lurk each week. After struggling with his flat stick for three months, he’s been tending back upwards the past three starts. Any course where elite driving is essential, expect Ludvig to be a contender.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Rory McIlroy (8-1, FanDuel) — Caves Valley should reward distance and putting, and McIlroy is top-notch in both at the moment. His great putting numbers are well-supported by distance-based splits, and he also finished fourth here back in 2021.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Rory McIlroy (8-1, FanDuel) — Caves Valley Golf Club is a perfect fit for Rory McIlroy. Walking with McIlroy during his practice round, you can really sense it. Rory cuts corners, flies bunkers and makes aggressive approach shots into these green complexes that only two or three other players can even attempt. With Ted Scott away, I’m choosing the next best player who would love nothing more than to send a strong Bethpage message to the field.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Cameron Young (30-1, FanDuel) — As someone who has spent more betting Cameron Young than I did on my first car, I admittedly might be chasing with this pick. So take this analysis with a grain of salt. This time of year, I want to ride the hot hand—and CY won at a short, positional course at the Wyndham and then finished top five at another positional course last week. This week he can let the driver eat.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Cameron Young (30-1, FanDuel) — As Steve said, the chase is very much back on. This course sets up quite well for his style of play and his putter is running quite hot right now. He seems to be in a good spot Ryder Cup-wise, but he could leave no doubt with another W this week.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Xander Schauffele (20-1, BetMGM) — Xander Schauffele has had a disappointing 2025 by all accounts when placed in context to his two major-victory 2024. Yet I still believe that Schauffele will close the year on a high note at Caves Valley, a golf course that should heavily accentuate his power off the tee and elite middle- to long-iron play.
Past results: We now have 11 individual victories in 2025 after our tour coach’s fifth outright winner this season (Scottie Scheffler).
BMW Championship picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Chris Gotterup (40-1, Bet365) — This is a bomber’s course, and few players in the world have been better with their driver over the past month or so than Gotterup. It’s a Northeast course, so he should be very comfortable, and he’s proven he can beat an elite field by looking down Rory McIlroy in Europe and taking him down.
Mayo: Chris Gotterup (40-1, Bet365) — The No. 1 player in SG/off the tee over the past six months, he has absolutely torched driver-heavy, low-penalty courses this year: Scottish, Myrtle Beach, TPC Craig Ranch and Corales. Hell, if he didn’t drop four strokes in two rounds between chipping and putting in Canada, he was pacing to gain 7.5 strokes with his driver. He proved he can beat this strength of field a month ago overseas and his usually terrible putter has been hot … until last week. Yet, after three rounds of struggling in Memphis, Gotterup went scorched earth Sunday getting all parts of his game back on track.
Gdula: Matt Fitzpatrick (40-1, FanDuel) — Fitzpatrick has a top-17 ceiling among everyone’s last 50 rounds, and he’s got fantastic splits on long approaches. Golfers will see a ton of those this week. With a good putter Fitzpatrick sets up really well among the longshots.
Stewart: Hideki Matsuyama (40-1, FanDuel) — The best time to bet Hideki Matsuyama is when everyone is looking the other way. Matsuyama is ranked third in the field for approach over the past 24 rounds. Four straight top-20 results, and the trend is our friend. This is a big ballpark, much like Kapalua, where Hideki started the year going 35 under par. Give him some room off the tee with his current iron game, and the rest of the field will be looking up at him on that leader board on Sunday.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (35-1, FanDuel) — Not a true longshot, but in a shorter field I’ll bend the rules. Hovland rebounded from an awful Thursday in Memphis to gain strokes tee to green in his final three rounds. I’ll ride with Hovland, who has proven that longer courses with thick rough like this are up his wheelhouse.
Powers, Golf Digest: Rickie Fowler (60-1, FanDuel) — Thanks to some sponsor exemptions, and some very timely play on those weeks, Rickie Fowler has somehow found himself on the cusp of making it back to East Lake for just the second time since 2019. In his T-6 performance last week in Memphis, Fowler gained 4.7 strokes with his irons, his best output in that department since ... wait for it ... the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic, his last victory on tour.
Lack: Sam Stevens (110-1, Bet365) — I always have interest in Sam Stevens on driver-heavy golf courses that allow players to separate with elite off-the-tee play, and Caves Valley certainly fits that bill. Stevens’ prior performance at golf courses such as Torrey Pines and TPC San Antonio leaves me feeling confident in his ability to navigate the task at hand in Maryland this week.
BMW Championship picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Tour coach: Tommy Fleetwood (16-1, BetRivers) — It’s tough to find reason to fade another one of these favorites, but coming off the emotional loss last week will be tough for Tommy. I’d rather bet my money on any of the other top names.
Mayo: Scottie Scheffler (+250, Bet365) — Famous last words, I know. But at this price and without Ted Scott on the bag, seems like a good enough receipt for him to come in third place and not cash a win.
Gdula: Ludvig Aberg (22-1, FanDuel) — This one’s scary because Ludvig is rounding into some form, but we’re getting no reprieve at these odds. Plus, even with the upward swing, he’s in the worst form of all the names at 25-1 or shorter.
Stewart: Justin Thomas (22-1, BetRivers) — We faded Justin Thomas last week because of his driver, and it was the only club in his bag that worked at TPC Southwind. Fast forward to Caves Valley, and we can spray it around off the tee, but JT has to be great on approach and with his flatstick. Approach is usually a strength, but putting in a birdiefest isn't. As a result, I’m keeping JT on the bench for another week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Tommy Fleetwood (16-1, BetRivers) — I might be chasing with Cam Young, but if you’re betting this you’re really chasing.
Powers, Golf Digest: Collin Morikawa (35-1, FanDuel) — Some might point to another great approach week for Morikawa at St. Jude as a sign he might be close. But he’s had a bunch of great approach weeks this year and hasn’t turned them into anything significant. He has just one top 10 since the Masters, and it came against a weak field in Detroit.
Lack: Tommy Fleetwood (16-1, BetRivers) — Tommy Fleetwood is coming off a heartbreaking loss last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and Caves Valley is far less strong of a course fit for the Englishman. Outside of the emotional letdown that comes with another missed opportunity to cross the finish line, I generally far prefer Fleetwood on golf courses that accentuate accuracy over distance off the tee, and Caves Valley does not check that box.
BMW Championship picks 2025: Matchups
Tour coach: Justin Thomas (-111) over Patrick Cantlay (Bet365) — JT has been working his butt off to get back to playing great golf, and he’s trending toward another victory. Last week was a way worse setup for his game—he can bomb his driver all over the map and still find a way to make birdies at Caves Valley. I think Cantlay’s longer-term struggles can’t be ignored in this matchup.
Mayo: Ryan Fox (+105) over Thomas Detry (Coolbet) — Much like Gotterup and Burns, look at where he’s succeeded in 2025—wins in Canada and Myrtle—and tell me it doesn’t sound like the blueprint to Caves Valley. He’s wildly inconsistent, but the Kiwi clearly has winning upside in a field of 49 at this price.
Gdula: Harris English (-120) over Akshay Bhatia (FanDuel) — This is a really close matchup over the last 12 months, but with regards to six- and three-month trends, English is separating by a big margin.
Stewart: JJ Spaun (-110) over Sam Burns (Bet365) — I have been betting on Sam Burns all summer, and it is time to jump off the train. Starting in Scotland, Burns began to lose his consistency. One week it’s the driver, next it’s the irons, and even the putter! Sam lost four strokes tee to green in Memphis. Meanwhile, JJ Spaun has gained T2G against the field in eight of his past nine starts going back to the Truist in May. Spaun almost looked defiant on Sunday in Memphis when he was missing 30-plus-foot putts in the playoff. Backing confidence like JJ has right now is how you cash.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Patrick Cantlay (-125) over Justin Thomas (Bet365) — I’ll gladly go against our tour coach here. Thomas is ninth-worst in this field in SG/approach over the past 24 rounds and is at the bottom half of this field in Birdies or Better. Cantlay is top 10 in both those categories and will have good vibes after winning here in 2021.
Powers, Golf Digest: Ben Griffin (-120) over Keegan Bradley (DraftKings) — Benny the Bomber should eat at Caves Valley. Not sure Keegan can make enough birdies with his putting and you have to figure his mind and eyes will be wandering to the leader board as he thinks about rounding out his U.S. roster for the Ryder Cup.
Lack: Xander Schauffele (-150) over Justin Thomas (BetOnline) — I will gladly lay this juice in this matchup of my pick to win over one of my key fades of the week in Justin Thomas. JT continues to struggle to find consistency off the tee, and Schauffele’s ball-striking remains far more trustable at the moment.
Matchup Results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Stewart: 1 for 1 (Ben Griffin (+100) over Corey Conners); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Ben Griffin (-120) over Keegan Bradley); Lack: 1 for 1 (Russell Henley (-120) over Justin Thomas); Everyone else: 0 for 1.
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Tour coach: 14-13-2 (up 1.21 units); Lack: 16-14-1 (up 0.99 units); Hennessey: 16-15-1 (down 0.56 units); Powers: 15-16-1 (down 1.45 units); Stewart: 14-17-1 (down 3.55 units); Mayo: 12-17-2 (down 4.33 units); Gdula: 11-19-2 (down 9.31 units)
BMW Championship picks 2025: Top 10s
Tour coach: Rory McIlroy (-140, Bet365) — It doesn’t take much intimidate knowledge of Rory McIlroy’s personality to know he was making a statement last week. He’ll make it a point to make a statement this week, too, by playing his way into contention. This is a perfect setup for his game.
Mayo: Sam Burns (+260, FanDuel) — Sure, the course has changed a tad since 2021, but elite driver play matched with spike putting was the clear path to the first page of the leader board. Both these things are things Burns can do very well.
Gdula: Cameron Young (+220, FanDuel) — Young is long off the tee (top six among the field over the past 50 rounds) and has some of the best putting splits of any golfer in the world. His irons are trending up, and at a track where distance and putting should matter, he should play well.
Stewart: Kurt Kitayama (+320, DraftKings) — Sitting at 37th place on the FedEx Cup Points list is Kurt Kitayama. Always known for his consistent ball-striking, Kitayama has been on an incredible scoring run over his past five starts. Kurt is ranked No. 1 in the field for Birdie or Better percentage, he won the 3M Open, and he added another top 10 last week in Memphis. An elite driver, combined with a scintillating putter, Kitayama, who also finished fifth at the John Deere Classic last month, can easily jump into the Tour Championship with another strong finish at the BMW.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (+220, FanDuel) — I rode Cam to a win in this spot last week, so I’m going back to the well to back up my outright pick.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jhonattan Vegas (+800, BetRivers) — If you think I’m going to wimp out and take someone at –140 just to end the 0-fer, you simply don’t know me. We’re going down swinging, and Vegas might just take us to the promised land. Caves Valley is quite kind to the big hitters, and the big Venezuelan very much is a big hitter. Plus, he has an opportunity to make his first Tour Championship since 2017, and he’s coming off a quiet top 15 in Memphis. A little bit of form and plenty of motivation could be just what we need.
Lack: Ludvig Aberg (+180, DraftKings) — Ludvig Aberg is playing far better than his results would suggest, and he has now gained over a stroke in both ball-striking categories in seven consecutive starts. Even more encouraging is the fact that Aberg’s short game and putting improved last week at TPC Southwind, and Caves Valley should be an even better tee-to-green fit for Aberg.
Top-10 results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Gdula: 1 for 1 (Justin Rose +600); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Cameron Young +350); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Ludvig Aberg +260); Tour coach: 1 for 1 (Tommy Fleetwood +200); Everyone else: 0 for 1.
Top-10 results from this season: Gdula: 11 for 32 (up 21.3 units); Tour coach: 8 for 29 (up 15.3 units); Lack: 9 for 32 (up 11.3 units); Stewart: 11 for 32 (up 9.55 units); Hennessey: 7 for 31 (up 8.5 units); Mayo: 6 for 32 (up 7.27 units); Powers: 0 for 32 (down 32 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.