BMW Championship DFS picks 2025: I’m a full fade on Tommy Fleetwood
After a thrilling finish in Memphis, the top-50 players in the FedEx Cup playoffs advanced to this week’s BMW Championship. The host venue is Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Md., which last hosted this event in 2021. The Tom Fazio design has made several key changes ahead of the 2025 tournament, including changing the par from a 72 to a par 70 and growing up the rough to four inches. Patrick Cantlay won the 2021 BMW Championship at Caves Valley at 27-under par in a playoff over Bryson DeChambeau, and there appears to be a conscious effort to more adequately defend par this year and challenge the best players on the PGA Tour.
Scottie Scheffler remains the player to beat at the top of the DraftKings slate, and he is carrying a robust $13,400 price tag, a full $2,000 more expensive than Rory McIlroy, who skipped the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Scheffler recorded another top-five finish in Memphis last week despite playing the final round without his trusted caddie, Ted Scott. Scheffler will be a force to reckoned with outside Baltimore once again. Let’s dive into the BMW Championship DFS slate.
$10,000 range
Play: Ludvig Aberg, $10,200:
Stacy Revere
Ludvig Aberg continues to trend positively after another top-10 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Aberg gained over a stroke in both ball-striking categories for the seventh consecutive start, and his putter is now finally beginning to heat up. This may be the week it all comes together for the young Swede.
Fade: Tommy Fleetwood, $10,400:
It will be interesting to see how Tommy Fleetwood bounces back after another heartbreaking defeat, but I will gladly look in another direction for DFS purposes. Caves Valley is far more of a distance-biased golf course than TPC Southwind, and I far prefer Fleetwood on more positional, accuracy-biased tracks.
$9,000 range
Play: Viktor Hovland, $9,200:
Andy Lyons
I always have interest in Viktor Hovland on long, difficult, bentgrass courses with thick rough, evidenced by strong results at Oak Hill, Olympia Fields and Muirfield Village. The young Swede rebounded strongly last week after a slow start and was one of the best players over the weekend in Memphis. I expect Hovland to continue that momentum this week.
Fade: Russell Henley, $9,700:
Russell Henley typically plays his best golf on positional courses in the Southeast, so last week was a far better opportunity to back the winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I have some real concerns about Henley’s lack of distance on a 7,600-yard par 70 golf course, and I will gladly look toward players with more length in this price range.
$8,000 range
Play: Keegan Bradley, $8,700:
David Cannon
Regardless of the noise that Keegan Bradley might be dealing with over his captain’s pick selections, Caves Valley is a phenomenal course fit for the veteran. Bradley always seems to play his best golf on Northeastern parkland golf courses, and he should be more than comfortable at Caves Valley, which features very similar agronomy to where he won just a few months ago in Connecticut.
Fade: Sungjae Im, $8,000:
Sungjae Im is finally starting to play some better golf, but this price hike is far too much of an over-reaction. Im’s top-five finish at Caves Valley is being far too over-valued in this price tag, as Im is not remotely the iron player he was in 2021.
$7,000 range
Play: Kurt Kitayama, $7,600:
Jared C. Tilton
Even following up his victory at the 3M Open, Kurt Kitayama continues to play some excellent golf, and Caves Valley should be another ideal fit for his skill-set. Kitayama’s power off the tee and elite middle- to long-iron play will be fully accentuated at Caves Valley, and I expect him to keep his foot on the gas in the FedEx Cup playoffs.
Fade: Jason Day, $7,400:
After a fourth-place finish at the Travelers Championship, Jason Day has been struggling to find his footing over the past month, and Caves Valley does not feel like an ideal fit for his game. I have little faith in Day’s middle- to long-iron play, an essential ingredient to success at Caves Valley.
$6,000 range
Play: Sam Stevens, $6,500:
Andrew Wevers
I always have interest in Sam Stevens on driver-heavy golf courses where players can separate off the tee, and the new-look Caves Valley certainly fits into that category. Stevens’ prior performance at golf courses such as Torrey Pines and TPC San Antonio that heavily accentuate distance should be applicable to the task at hand at Caves Valley this week, and his price tag certainly makes a lot of lineups work smoothly.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
