Betting Analysis
BMW Championship picks 2022: The longshot our experts love at Wilmington
Look, there’s no other way to say it—we are on absolute fire. After Lee Alldrick went on a tear this summer, hitting on Rory McIlroy in Canada and on both of Tony Finau’s wins in Minnesota and Detroit, both Christopher Powers and Pat Mayo cashed in on Will Zalatoris’ breakthrough this past weekend in Memphis, giving them each three outright victories on the season. Unbiased opinion: There is no better gambling column in golf (semi-biased).
But nobody—gamblers especially—cares about what you did last week, the week before that, or the week before that. It’s a what have you done for me lately business, and our job is to make sure that business keeps boomin’.
Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2022 BMW Championship.
BMW Championship picks 2022: Our experts' outright predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Tony Finau (16-1, PointsBet) — It’s not a bold statement to say Tony Finau is the best player on the PGA Tour right now. In the past three weeks, he’s played like it. Yes, this field is better than the ones he beat two weeks in a row, but he also contended last week despite having an “off week,” for him, resulting in a T-5 finish. This place will reward length and elite iron play, plus his putting has been red-hot. It’s the summer of Tone.
Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Cameron Young (25-1, DraftKings) — Near the tops in the field in driving and irons, the putter went frigid for Young last week. That happens to him from time to time, but he’s usually solid on either side of the pendulum: Extremely good or hilarious bad. And it never seems to be sticky. At a course with massive greens, a la St. Andrews, if Young can recapture his lag putting strokes, he can go full Will Zalatoris and notch that long-awaited win.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Xander Schauffele (20-1, FanDuel) — Xander is one of the rare few with distance and accuracy, and that could help him separate this week off the tee. The irons and putting are there, too, to put away a field like this. Plus, we know he has navigated no-cut events well in the past.
Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Cameron Young (25-1, DraftKings) — Young suffered his worst putting performance as a professional last week in Memphis, losing 5.5 strokes to the field. Despite the losses, he still finished T-31 thanks to the nine strokes he gained in the ball-striking categories – second to only Will Zalatoris. That’s an outrageous amount of strokes to gain via ball-striking but it’s not uncommon for Young. He’s gained nine-plus in that department in four of his last eight starts – per the RickRunGood.com golf database. Now he heads to Wilmington Country Club which should be a generous set-up for his skill set.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Tony Finau (16-1, PointsBet) — I’m with our caddie. The FedEx Cup is all about riding momentum. No one has more than Tony. Look at the stats, too: Tony’s first in par-4 scoring over the past 36 rounds, per Fantasy National, which will be key on this par-71 layout. He’s fourth in SG/off the tee, fourth in Birdies or Better, fifth in approach—and also first in three-putt avoidance over the past 50 rounds. That should be crucial on these enormous putting surfaces at Wilmington.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Patrick Cantlay (14-1, DraftKings) — It feels dumb to not go right back to Willy Z. The FedEx Cup Playoffs have produced multiple winners 11 times in 15 iterations, and Zalatoris seems primed for that type of run. But this golf course screams Patrick Cantlay. Long and straight off the tee, strong iron play and elite bentgrass putting seem to be the requirements to contend at Wilmington, and all of that is right up Cantlay’s alley. It helps, too, that he’s clearly building toward another breakthrough, with six top-14 finishes in his last seven starts.
Lee Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Patrick Cantlay (14-1, DraftKings) — Cantlay’s excellent off-the-tee game and sharp approach play on long courses means he ranks first in the FanShareSports Course Suitability Ranking this week. He comes into this event ranked first for SG/putting on bentgrass over the last two years and eighth for SG/total over the last two months.
Past results: Golf Digest's betting panel is on FIRE. Last week, Pat Mayo and Christopher Powers both hit on Will Zalatoris at 22-1 to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship, giving them each three outright victories this season. Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports also has three outright hits, cashing on both of Tony Finau’s recent wins and Rory McIlroy’s win at the RBC Canadian Open earlier this summer. Rick Gehman also picked up two wins in the fall by correctly predicting Sam Burns (16-1) to win the Sanderson Farms Championship and Viktor Hovland (19-1) to win the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. Brandon Gdula also hit on Hovland at Mayakoba, as well as Justin Thomas at the PGA (16-1), and Stephen Hennessey cashed on Hideki Matsuyama (12-1) at the Zozo Championship.
BMW Championship picks 2022: Sleepers/Dark Horses who could win
Caddie: Keegan Bradley (100-1, BetMGM) — Keegs had it going the last time we were in the Mid-Atlantic at TPC Potomac, nearly winning. This should be another ball-striking fest, with players needing to be precise with approaches into these multi-tiered greens—which plays to his elite iron play.
Mayo: Joaquin Niemann (40-1, DraftKings) — There’s no ultra long shot I feel comfortable backing, so Niemann it is from slightly down the board. The Chilean hasn’t been lighting it up lately, but his game looks like it could be close to putting it all together. Niemann was top 10 tee-to-green a week ago, and he finally gets back on Bentgrass this week, his preferred putting surface.
Gdula: Max Homa (50-1, FanDuel) — Homa has a win against a tough field in the past, and he checks off the list of distance, irons, and putting that the winner should hold this week. Homa also has spike weeks in his tee-to-green and putting data that we see only from favorites, so he’s undervalued here.
Gehman: Cam Davis (65-1, DraftKings) — Davis is flying under the radar and headed to a really great course for his playing style. Over the last 20 rounds, Davis has gained 1.91 strokes on the field – the eighth-best mark of anyone playing this week. It’s been consistently great as well, finishing no worse than T-16 in any of his last five starts. If he can keep the ball in the wide fairways around Wilmington Country Club, he’ll give himself a chance to contend.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cam Davis (65-1, DraftKings) — Like I said with Finau, ride the momentum. Davis’ recent finishes: eighth, 16th, 14th and 13th. He fired weekend rounds of 67 and 66, so he’s coming in hotter than hot. Plus, his distance off the tee should give him plenty of chances at Wilmington, and he’s ninth in this field over the past 50 rounds in SG/putting on bentgrass.
Powers, Golf Digest: Adam Scott (60-1, DraftKings) — Scott’s had two poor approach weeks in his last two starts, which is concerning. But he rarely, if ever, has three straight bad weeks with his irons. Despite that, he still putted his way to a top five in Memphis, a wild sentence to type considering his history with the flat stick. That marked his third top 20 in the last two months, a sign he’s close. Another thing to love about the Aussie is that he’s clearly a fan of Robert Trent Jones’ work (RTJ designed Wilmington CC), having had success at other RTJ tracks like Firestone, where he won the 2011 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, and Bellerive, where he finished solo third at the 2018 PGA Championship.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Cam Davis (65-1, DraftKings) — Davis ranks top 10 in the field this week for SG/approach on long courses and is a solid putter on bentgrass greens so it’s not surprising to see that he ranks ninth in the FanShare Sports course-suitability ranking this week. Form wise, the Australian ranks 13th for SG/total over the last two months and fifth for Opportunities Gained over the same period.
BMW Championship picks 2022: Players we're fading
Caddie: Scottie Scheffler (14-1, DraftKings) — Not the past a couple of months you’d want to see from Scottie. It’s already been a heckuva season, so he can kind of coast to what should still be a huge payday for him next week.
Mayo: Scottie Scheffler (14-1, DraftKings) — The putting wasn’t an issue until the iron play started to falter. We’re here now. He hasn’t gained on the greens since the Masters. Tough to win without making a few mid-range putts.
Gdula: Collin Morikawa (18-1, FanDuel) — Morikawa’s T-5 last week came at a course that rewarded accuracy more than this week’s setup should. I think we can question the distance, chipping and putting this week, and that’s too many things compared to who else we can bet at similar odds.
Gehman: Justin Thomas (14-1, DraftKings) — On paper this feels like a great fit for Thomas, but I’m worried about his recent putter regression. Remember, Thomas fixed the putter in the spring, gaining strokes to the field seven times in a 10-event stretch. Since then, he’s lost in four straight – totaling 9.6 strokes in the wrong direction. With large, fast and undulating greens, I’m worried that Thomas’ putting woes will continue.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Xander Schauffele (14-1, DraftKings) — It’s a scary proposition to fade a guy who has only finished outside the top 20 once since April. But his 57th-place finish last week was UGLY, losing nearly four strokes on approach, his worst ball-striking week in nearly five years, per RickRunGood.com. It’s tough to take a stand up here, but for me it’d be X.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jordan Spieth (35-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Wilmington is a big ballpark that will require you to be long and straight off the tee. And I think we all know that’s not Spieth’s strong suit.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Justin Thomas (14-1, DraftKings) — Thomas ranks just 27th in the FanShare Sports’ course-suitability ranking this week and comes into this event ranked just 42nd for SG/total over the past two months.
BMW Championship picks 2022: Matchups
Caddie: Denny McCarthy (-110) over Emiliano Grillo (DraftKings) — Denny closed out last week strong, while Emiliano really struggled after leading after 36 holes. These things matter in golf, plus it won’t hurt that Denny is closeby to his Maryland home.
Mayo: Collin Morikawa (+100) over Sungjae Im (DraftKings) — Morikawa at even money against Sungjae? Sign me up!
Gdula: Mito Pereira (-110) over Brian Harman (FanDuel) — Mito sets up well for a course like this, and Harman might struggle to gain strokes off the tee unless he hits every fairway.
Gehman: Jon Rahm (-110) over Justin Thomas (DraftKings) — Rahm charged on the weekend in Memphis, carding the third-best score in the field over the final two rounds. It was a T-5 finish where he gained over four strokes off-the-tee, something that he makes almost routine at this point. While he’s still sorting out his putting, the advanced metrics for Rahm are still elite. With four guaranteed rounds in Wilmington, it seems likely that he’ll be in the mix again.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Adam Scott (-125) over Brian Harman (Bet365) — The Aussie has a massive advantage off the tee, is a better mid-iron player and was the hottest putter last week. Sign me up.
Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Cantlay (+100) over Rory McIlroy (DraftKings) — I love Cantlay to win this week and in order for that to happen he’s going to have to at least beat Rory McIlroy. Simple math, folks.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Cam Davis (-110) over Davis Riley (Bet365) — As you can see above I really like Davis as my longshot to win this week. Riley on the other hand ranks just 52nd in the field this week for SG/total over the last two months and just 46th for SG/putting on bentgrass greens over the last two years.
Matchup Results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Burns (+100) over Spieth); Gehman: 1 for 1 (Zalatoris (-125) over Spieth); Powers: 1 for 1 (Niemann (-110) over Homa); Gdula: VOID (Burns (-124) over Matsuyama (WD); Mayo: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Alldrick: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Mayo: 27-9-4 (up 16.52 units); Powers: 23-15-4 (up 7.64 units); Caddie: 23-16-3 (up 5.65 units); Alldrick: 22-18-2 (up 1.26 units); Gdula: 20-19-1 (down 0.53 units); Gehman: 18-18-5 (down 1.4 units); Hennessey: 20-21-1 (down 5.2 units)
BMW Championship picks 2022: Top 10s
Caddie: Mito Pereira (+750, Bet365) — He’s got the length and the iron play to contend here, so a positive putting week and you’re in business at these massive odds.
Mayo: Collin Morikawa (+225, DraftKings) — Wilmington Country Club is a great unknown to a lot of us. The bentgrass greens are gigantic, the fairways look thin, and there are bunkers everywhere. So, either the bombers are going to gauge the place to death or the more accuracy-based drivers with fire irons are going to win, much like we saw in years gone by at Firestone. Morikawa is the hedge on all types. He flipped the switch last week and the driver and irons returned. If he can build off that, we know he’s always been at his best on bentgrass greens, and the price is right for an elite talent.
Gdula: Joaquin Niemann (+330, FanDuel) — Niemann’s long enough off the tee to gain on the field in that department, and the overall ball-striking should prove crucial at this setup this week.
Gehman: Tyrrell Hatton (+350, DraftKings) — Wilmington Country Club is seemingly going to mitigate Hatton’s weakness and amplify his strengths. Hatton has a tendency to miss the fairway, ranking outside the top 150 on tour this year, but this course has wide fairways which should catch more of those wayward shots. Hatton is also an excellent putter, top 10 on tour this season, and he rarely three-putts – both will be critical this week. Put those course-fit metrics with four straight solid finishes and I could see Hatton finishing with his name on the first page of the leaderboard.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Tony Finau (+155, FanDuel) — It would be a surprise if Finau doesn’t contend, so let’s cash this for a fourth straight week.
Powers, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (+230, DraftKings) — If I hadn’t talked myself into Cantlay, Cam Young would be my pick to win this week. We’ll go with a top 10 instead, where he’s been living since April, with five top 10s in his past nine starts.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Xander Schauffele (+185, FanDuel) — Schauffele comes into this event ranked third for SG/total over the last two years and second for SG/total over the last two months so has both elite long and short-term form. The course should suit too, ranking second in FanShare’s course-suitability ranking this week.
Top-10 results from the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Powers: 1 for 1 (Adam Scott +700); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Powers: 13 for 42 (up 34.55 units); Alldrick: 13 for 42 (up 34.5 units); Hennessey: 10 for 42 (up 7.95 units); Gehman: 9 for 42 (up 2.7 units); Mayo: 8 for 42 (down 1.1 units); Caddie: 11 for 42 (down 1.5 units); Gdula: 6 for 41 (down 12.2 units)
BMW Championship picks 2022: One and Done
Gehman: Joohyung ‘Tom’ Kim — Kim’s emergence on the scene has provided an intriguing One and Done option, especially for those of us with few options available. He followed up his Wyndham victory with a T-13 at the FedEx St Jude Championship. He’s gained at least three strokes on approach in four straight events and has gained from tee-to-green in seven straight. He’s been stellar all summer long and it seems safe to expect more of the same.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Kevin Na; Sanderson Farms Championship: Mito Pereira. Shriners: Abraham Ancer. CJ Cup: Louis Oosthuizen. Zozo Championship: Hideki Matsuyama. Bermuda Championship: Seamus Power. Mayakoba: Abraham Ancer. Houston Open: Sam Burns. RSM Classic: Scottie Scheffler. Sentry TOC: Sungjae Im. Sony Open: Corey Conners. American Express: Talor Gooch. Farmers Insurance Open: Tony Finau. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger. Waste Management Phoenix Open: Viktor Hovland. Genesis Invitational: Xander Schauffele. Honda Classic: Billy Horschel. Arnold Palmer Invitational: Rory McIlroy. Players Championship: Jon Rahm. Valspar Championship: Dustin Johnson. Valero Texas Open: Charley Hoffman. The Masters: Brooks Koepka. RBC Heritage: Patrick Cantlay. Mexico Open: Aaron Wise. Wells Fargo: Matt Fitzpatrick. AT&T Byron Nelson: Justin Thomas. PGA Championship: Jordan Spieth. Charles Schwab Challenge: Max Homa. The Memorial Tournament: Will Zalatoris. RBC Canadian Open: Cameron Smith. U.S. Open: Collin Morikawa. Travelers Championship: Davis Riley. John Deere Classic: Cam Davis. Scottish Open: Tommy Fleetwood. Open Championship: Tyrrell Hatton. 3M Open: Sahith Theegala. Rocket Mortgage Classic: Cameron Young. Wyndham Championship: Si Woo Kim. FedEx St. Jude Championship: Joaquin Niemann.
Hennessey: Mito Pereira — I’ve used all the top guys in this field (which you would if your contest ends after the Wyndham, like most weeks), but if you’re still going, you might have to dig deep. At least with Mito, you’re getting one of the best ball-strikers in the field.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo; Sanderson Farms Championship: Carlos Ortiz. Shriners: Abraham Ancer. CJ Cup: Collin Morikawa. Zozo Championship: Takumi Kanaya. Bermuda Championship: Seamus Power. Mayakoba: Aaron Wise. Houston Open: Sam Burns. RSM Classic: Brendon Todd. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. Sony Open: Marc Leishman. American Express: Sungjae Im. Farmers Insurance Open: Daniel Berger. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Lanto Griffin. Waste Management Phoenix Open: Viktor Hovland. Genesis Invitational: Will Zalatoris. Honda Classic: Russell Knox. Arnold Palmer Invitational: Keith Mitchell. Players Championship: Cameron Smith. Valspar Championship: Shane Lowry. Valero Texas Open: Chris Kirk. The Masters: Justin Thomas. RBC Heritage: Russell Henley. Mexico Open: Gary Woodland. Wells Fargo: Troy Merritt. AT&T Byron Nelson: Jhonattan Vegas. PGA Championship: Scottie Scheffler. Charles Schwab Challenge: Jordan Spieth. The Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm. RBC Canadian Open: Cameron Smith. U.S. Open: Rory McIlroy. Travelers Championship: Joaquin Niemann. John Deere Classic: Webb Simpson. Scottish Open: Matt Fitzpatrick. Open Championship: Xander Schauffele. 3M Open: Sahith Theegala. Rocket Mortgage Classic: Cameron Davis. Wyndham Championship: J.T. Poston. FedEx St. Jude Championship: Tony Finau.
Powers: Patrick Cantlay — Can’t believe I even still have him. Lucky me. Go Pat.
Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Brendan Steele. Sanderson Farms Championship: Mito Pereira. Shriners: Aaron Wise. CJ Cup: Talor Gooch. Zozo Championship: Joaquin Niemann. Bermuda Championship: Patrick Rodgers. Mayakoba: Jhonattan Vegas. Houston Open: Marc Leishman. RSM Classic: Corey Conners. Sentry TOC: Daniel Berger. Sony Open: Kevin Na. American Express: Seamus Power. Farmers Insurance Open: Luke List. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Cameron Tringale. Waste Management Phoenix Open: Bubba Watson. Genesis Invitational: Adam Scott. Honda Classic: Billy Horschel. Arnold Palmer Invitational: Chris Kirk. Players Championship: Xander Schauffele. Valspar Championship: Sam Burns. Valero Texas Open: Charley Hoffman. The Masters: Brooks Koepka. RBC Heritage: Matt Fitzpatrick. Mexico Open: Abraham Ancer. Wells Fargo: Keegan Bradley. AT&T Byron Nelson: Sahith Theegala. PGA Championship: Jordan Spieth. Charles Schwab Challenge: Tommy Fleetwood. The Memorial Tournament: Patrick Reed. RBC Canadian Open: Tyrrell Hatton. U.S. Open: Shane Lowry. Travelers Championship: Davis Riley. John Deere Classic: Scott Stallings. Scottish Open: Viktor Hovland. Open Championship: Will Zalatoris. 3M Open: Maverick McNealy. Rocket Mortgage Classic: Cameron Young. Wyndham Championship: Si Woo Kim. FedEx St. Jude Championship: Russell Henley.
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long- and short-form content, owner of the Mayo Media Network and host of The Pat Mayo Experience. (Subscribe for video or audio.) Mayo (@ThePME) was named 2021 Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writing Association, while also being a finalist for Podcast of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year. Mayo won the 2020 FSWA Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award in 2020. He was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). Mayo is on the board of governors at www.fantasynational.com.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast.
Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.
Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports started out writing an article highlighting the best bargain plays for fantasy golf under his twitter handle @DKGolfBargains. His success at this prompted FanShare Sports to enlist him as a guest writer, which evolved into him writing the weekly Under The Radar article. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldrick’s insight into European Tour regulars and low priced, low owned plays has provided an invaluable edge for readers when it comes to DFS GPPs.