Fantasy Advice
BMW Championship DFS picks 2024: The positive signs for Will Zalatoris
After a thrilling week in Memphis where Hideki Matsuyama triumphed at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the top-50 players in the FedEx Cup standings will continue their season this week in Colorado at the BMW Championship. For the first time since 2006, the PGA Tour will be returning to Castle Pines Golf Club, situated in the Castle Rock suburb just outside of Denver.
Castle Pines was formerly the host of The International, a long-running PGA Tour Stableford event. The course has undergone multiple renovations, and the Jack Nicklaus design now tips out to over 8,000 yards on the scorecard. With that being said, Castle Pines plays at 6,000 feet above sea level and features 400 feet of elevation change. Thinner air has a positive impact on the distance of golf shots, and while still a brute, the course will play closer to 7,500 yards when accounting for altitude.
Scottie Scheffler holds his No. 1 spot in the FedEx Cup standings, but he will look to hold off a hard-charging Xander Schauffele who nearly won last week in Memphis. At the conclusion of the week, the top-30 players will advance to the Tour Championship at the newly restored East Lake to compete for the FedEx Cup trophy.
With many big names still needing to make a move, a lot will be at stake this week in Denver. Let’s dive into the slate.
Watch the below video for our favorite bets and players we're fading for the 2024 BMW Championship:
$10,000 range
Play: Ludvig Aberg, $10,000:
Icon Sportswire
Coming off two middling performances at the Olympics and FedEx St. Jude, this is a great buy-low spot for Ludvig Aberg. The young Swede is one of the best total drivers of the ball in this field and an elite long iron player, two skills that should be heavily accentuated at Castle Pines. I also prefer Aberg on new golf courses, which neutralizes some of the course history advantage others have over him on regular tour stops.
Fade: Rory McIlroy, $10,800:
It’s hard to make sense of what happened with Rory McIlroy last week, as the four-time major winner posted one of the worst ball-striking performances of his entire career. I try not to overreact to such a small sample size, but every aspect of McIlroy’s game looked off, and he has yet to post an above-average putting performance since the infamous back nine at Pinehurst. Maybe a quick fix gets him back on track this week, but it’s certainly not a risk I’m willing to take.
$9,000 range
Play: Patrick Cantlay, $9,800:
Andy Lyons
After starting with a disappointing 73 on Day 1, Patrick Cantlay really pulled it together across the final three days in Memphis, rising up the leaderboard to finish T-12. I’m encouraged by the momentum Cantlay was able to generate over his final three rounds, and all aspects of his game looked on point. I’m still optimistic that Cantlay is trending toward a victory, and this is always the time of year that he plays his best golf.
Fade: Sungjae Im, $9,000:
After back-to-back disappointing performances at the Wyndham and FedEx St. Jude, both tournaments with great golf courses for Sungjae Im, I’m surprised the 26-year-old is still carrying a $9K price tag. Im possesses an advantage on accuracy-biased golf courses, and Castle Pines expects to skew more toward power. This one is an easy pass.
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$8,000 range
Play: Justin Thomas, $8,800:
Pedro Salado
Justin Thomas is quietly playing better golf than his results would suggest, and the two-time major winner gained over three strokes on approach last week in Memphis. Now Thomas travels to a course that should allow him some more leniency off the tee, and I expect him to be fully motivated with a berth to East Lake and a spot on the Presidents Cup team on the line.
Fade: Corey Conners, $8,900:
While I am always a huge fan of Corey Conners at accuracy biased, shorter golf courses, I’m not sure that Castle Pines will be the best fit for his skill-set. Conners also disappointed last week in Memphis, posting his first negative ball-striking performance in months. In this price range, there are far stronger options.
$7,000 range
Play: Robert MacIntyre, $7,600:
David Jensen
Robert MacIntyre has the ideal skill-set for Castle Pines, possessing both a tremendous amount of power off the tee and elite precision with his long irons. The two-time PGA Tour winner is also coming off a top-10 finish at the FedEx St. Jude and is now traveling to a golf course that should be a far better fit for his style of play.
Fade: Byeong Hun An, $7,700:
On paper, I like Byeong Hun An’s fit at Castle Pines, but he is simply not playing up to expectation. An is coming off a 33rd at TPC Southwind, where he lost strokes in both ball-striking categories, and he has now lost strokes off the tee in three of his past four starts. I struggle to back players that look off with their greatest weapon, and An will need his driver to compete here.
$6,000 range
Play: Will Zalatoris, $6,800:
I was surprised by this price tag on Will Zalatoris, particularly coming off a top-12 finish at TPC Southwind, where he gained strokes in both ball-striking categories. Zalatoris has always done his best work on bigger ballparks with elevation changes and large plurality of long iron approach shots, and his success at Augusta National and Muirfield Village should pay dividends at Castle Pines.
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Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also a data analyst and writer for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports