BMW Championship odds 2024: The hometown advantage our PGA pro is betting

The Monday Odds Drop is a value statement. Who in the field represents the best value for winning? Conversely, who is worth very little value. The meaning behind this conversation is often overlooked by golf bettors. Most weeks, everyone just fires bets on the favorite. Hideki Matsuyama (28-1) was pretty far from the favorite last week yet owned a tremendous course fit. At seven times the pre-tournament odds of Scottie Scheffler, he carried more value. With four straight top-20 results his history at TPC Southwind made him a very “valuable” outright opportunity.

The FedEx Cup playoffs continue in Colorado. Castle Pines Golf Club is a re-newed venue on the PGA Tour. Once host of The International from 1986-2006, this sensational setting just south of Denver welcomes back the world’s best men. Only two players in the field have competed here: Adam Scott (2000) and Jason Day (2006). Without any real course history, we are predicting future success based upon skill set and design fit. Collin Morikawa (14-1) has fit every course since the Masters. Morikawa has seven top-15 results in 11 starts. Collin carries the fourth-lowest odds coming into the BMW Championship.

Wyndham Clark (40-1) finished seventh at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Outside of an awful Open Championship, Clark has been trending even more than Morikawa. A 10th-place at the Scottish, 14th at the Olympics and now seventh on Sunday at the St. Jude. He has nearly four times the odds as Morikawa, while Collin’s last two results were only top 25 finishes. When you compare these two, does Morikawa make sense? Yes, he is more likely to win, but four times more likely? Don’t think so.

Watch the below video for our favorite bets and players we're fading for the 2024 BMW  Championship:

Clark is also from Denver and one of the few players in the field who has experience playing at this type of elevation. Castle Pines sits 6,000 feet above sea level. The scorecard also stretches over 8,000 yards. With Wyndham’s power and hometown appeal, that talent gap between the two gets even closer. Even the books believe in Wyndham on this summer stretch. Going into The Open, Clark was a 70-1 outright bet. For the BMW, he is almost half that number. To win, Wyndham would have to beat the same people he saw at Royal Troon or the St. Jude.

Collin on the other hand has held odds in the low teens, but has not contended since the Memorial in June. He ranked 68th out of a 70-man field in Memphis on approach. A brand-new course, with elevation, and plenty of terrain changes requires knowing exactly how far you are hitting the ball with your irons. Collin is off, and Clark is killing it, finishing seventh in strokes gained T2G at TPC Southwind. I’m taking Wyndham Clark on Monday before bettors drive his outright number down any further.

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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.