Computer Games
A supercomputer simulated the 2025 Masters 1,000 times and the winner is …
Yuichiro Chino
The 2025 Masters is nearly upon us, and with the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm all rounding into form at the right time, it promises to be a heavyweight title fight. The multi-million-dollar question is who will be left standing after four rounds of body blows and haymakers, and believe it or not, a computer may have the answer.
According to Oddspedia’s supercomputer, which simulated the 2025 Masters 1,000 times using betting odds, strokes gained, driving distance and accuracy, that answer isn’t exactly surprising:
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has the best chance to don the green jacket at 33.96 percent while World No. 2 Rory McIlroy has the second-best opportunity at 23.63 percent.
What is surprising, however, is how far clear the computer’s simulation found Scheffler and McIlroy. The next closest player in the field in terms of win probability was 2024 U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau at just 5.14 percent.
Things gets even more fascinating when you compare the supercomputer's findings to betting odds. According to Oddspedia, which uses FanDuel odds, DeChambeau is the sixth favorite at +1900. DraftKings has DeChambeau at slightly longer odds (+2000), good for seventh favorite just behind Xander Schauffele. But after 72,000 simulated holes at Augusta National, the supercomputer likes Bryson third best, while the oddsmakers prefer Jon Rahm and Ludvig Aberg.
Most important for bettors is the supercomputer’s combined win probability for McIlroy and Scheffler, who emerged victorious in 57.59 percent of all simulations. That eclipses the combined win probability for the other 92 golfers in this year’s Masters field, which sits at just 42.41 percent. The simulation’s combined win probability for Scheffler and McIlroy is also significantly higher than the 33.56 percent probability based on the pair’s betting odds.
So what do you trust more, a nameless, faceless computer or Vegas sportsbooks? The answer should be neither, but when it comes to the question of whether to bet on Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlory to win 2025 Masters, the answer is clear:
Both.
