Read The Line
Valero Texas Open 2024: 10 facts from a PGA pro to help you make money
Editor's Note: This article is published in partnership with Read The Line, a Golf Digest content partner.
Brennan Asplen
It feels like double duty this week trying to breakdown all of the Valero Texas Open content and get ready for the 88th Masters. That’s why Read the Line and Golf Digest are here to help you. Welcome to betting Wednesdays at The Loop and…
“10 things you need to know before betting the Valero!”
- Rory McIlroy started the week as the betting favorite at 9-1 odds. Unlike Scottie Scheffler last week, McIlroy’s odds have gone up (slightly) in the last 24 hours to 10-1. Bettors are not feeling lucky with the popular Irishman.
The Best and Worst Value Bets for the 2024 Valero Texas Open
- The Oaks course at TPC San Antonio was the seventh-longest course on tour last year. When I looked inside the SG/approach numbers approaches under 100 yards held the highest correlation to success. Why? Fifty percent of the approaches are from short range with five par 4s under 410 yards and four long par 5s.
- Players and caddies are commenting about the green surrounds. As if the bunkers weren’t hard enough, check out my on-site conditions course preview.
- Recent winners gain twice as many strokes (average) on the par 4s as the par 5s; weight them accordingly.
- Looking for a good comp course this week? Try TPC Twin Cities. Each course forces players to be patient off the tee and attack with their wedge game. Scoring (Birdie or Better%) is key and both possess difficult bunkering.
- The average winner’s pre-tournament odds over the past decade are +11800 (118-1).
- Maybe it is the week before the Masters, but six of the last 10 Valero winners held odds +10000 or greater prior to starting Round 1.
- The course architect is Greg Norman. Sergio Garcia also gave his input as a consultant. This is why The Oaks course challenges the driver and NOT the putter. Corey Conners gained an average of 1.3 strokes on the field with his flatstick in his two wins.
- Six of the past eight Valero champions needed a win to gain an invite to the Masters the very next week.
- I went for it last week and parlayed Nelly Korda to capture the Ford Championship alongside Scottie Scheffler to win in Houston. Who would have thought Scheffler would be the one to let me down when Korda came through with her third win in a row! The LPGA has their match play event this week and limited betting coverage. Therefore, here are my free Valero Texas Open plays from Read The Line.
PGA TOUR
Ludvig Åberg +1200
Hideki Matsuyama +2200
For a complete list of outrights, placements, H2Hs, live adds and DFS coverage make sure you subscribe to Read The Line!
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.