| Betting Analysis
U.S. Open picks 2025: Our experts love this 100-1 sleeper at Oakmont
It’s been a year of chalk at golf’s biggest events this year. Rory McIlroy winning the Players at 12-1 was the best payday. McIlroy was way shorter at the Masters, and Scottie Scheffler went off around +500 at the PGA Championship. Our experts have predicted each of those successfully. Blah blah. It would be easy to write Scottie Scheffler’s name in this column and try to keep the streak going. That’s no fun.
Sure, Scheffler is most likely to win—but we’re here to identify value and deliver some strong return on investment at the U.S. Open. Our experts have found their favorite bet down the board. Three of our experts are making the same bet, and the player has odds as high as 100-1 available.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of Oakmont, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 U.S. Open:
U.S. Open picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the Week: Scottie Scheffler (+280, FanDuel) — Betting the chalk at golf’s biggest events has treated us well this year. Scottie will add to his total and continue this impressive run he’s on. His face control, distance control and ability to always play the right shot at the right moment will add his name to the esteemed winners at Oakmont.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Bryson DeChambeau (+750, DraftKings) — A lot of this will come down to the rough. If Bryson can miss in enough places that will still give him an opportunity to hold the greens from the thick grass (or he simply misses into walked-on areas from the crowd) he’ll be perfect for a course in which even par could be a winning score. Too many times at Quail Hollow Bryson was in the perfect position only to leave a wedge 40-feet from the pin and two-putt. While that didn’t work at the PGA Championship it will be plenty good for Oakmont. That, or he pulls a Dustin from 2016 and simply dials in his accuracy and no one catches him.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Jon Rahm (12-1, FanDuel) — Rahm’s game is pretty much back, and he’s been lively at both majors so far this year (T-14 at the Masters and a T-8 at the PGA that was even better than the result). Rahm checks the box as a long and straight driver, and his short game – both around-the-green and putting – should lead to good scrambling this week. He has what it takes to outplay favorites Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Jon Rahm (12-1, FanDuel) — I’m not picking Jon Rahm to win the US Open because he has 19 straight top 10s on LIV Golf, which is impressive. I love Rahm because he’s back contending in majors and fits the Oakmont blueprint. A power player who can separate himself with his driving is step one. Jon’s creative around the greens and can handle extreme USGA conditions (2021 champion). His seventh at Royal Troon, coming out of the bad weather wave, has stuck with me. Add in a T-14 at Augusta National in April and another top 10 at Quail Hollow, and the sensational Spainard seems ready for career national championship No. 2.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Tommy Fleetwood (40-1, FanDuel) — I’m aware Tommy hasn’t won in the U.S. The U.S. Open is his best chance to do it. He has three top-five finishes in his U.S. Open career, a runner-up at Shinnecock (a good comp to Oakmont sans the wind), a fourth place at Erin Hills and a T-5 at LACC. When courses are tough, Tommy rises to the occasion. He’s been so consistent this year—and consistency, aka avoiding disaster, is what we want at Oakmont. If Scottie finds some trouble off the tee, this ticket is live.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Bryson DeChambeau (+750, DraftKings) — After betting on Bryson at the first two majors of the year, I’m now pot-committed. Third times the charm, right? But seriously, if there was ever a week to feel really good about him out-dueling Scottie Scheffler, it would be this one. While I do think accuracy will be a bit more important than usual at Oakmont, distance will still prevail like it has at the last nine U.S. Opens, two of which DeChambeau has won.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Bryson DeChambeau (+750, DraftKings) — At an extremely elementary level, the modern USGA setup identifies the best driver of the golf ball, and I fully believe that not only is Bryson DeChambeau the best driver of the ball in the world, he is one of the best drivers of the ball of the past decade. This is an extremely fair price for a player that possesses the lethal weapon in the game.
Past results: We have another (easy) winner, with Andy Lack cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s PGA Championship victory at +500. That’s Andy’s first win of 2025 and gives our panel nine individual victories in 2025.
U.S. Open picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Harris English (100-1, FanDuel) — Not only is Harris swinging it as well as he ever has, he’s at his best when he needs to be the most strategic. He excels on difficult setups, like Winged Foot, when he finished third at the U.S. Open. He also finished fourth at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines in 2021 with more thick rough and is a winner there. And he’s coming off a T-2 at the last major. His demeanor is made for U.S. Opens, and that’s why I love this bet at this price.
Mayo: Keegan Bradley (90-1, DraftKings) — Scottie Scheffler, JJ Spaun, Ryan Gerard and Keegan Bradley are the only four players rating inside the top 50 of both distance and accuracy over the past 24 rounds entering the US Open. So, if I don’t want to pay for Scottie, I'll pay for Temu Scottie and hope it’s a passable knock off for four days.
Gdula: Sepp Straka (50-1, FanDuel) — Straka’s U.S. Open history is so-so, but his form this year outweighs his prior seasons by at least 1.30 shots per round. Straka is accurate (11th in the field over his last 50 rounds, per datagolf) as well as a top-12 iron player (third in approach) and putting (11th) in that span, too. That’s a great backbone for the U.S. Open.
Stewart: Harris English (100-1, FanDuel) — Nine starts in the US Open, and nine made cuts for Harris English. The sweet-swinging Southern man finished second at the PGA Championship and 12th at The Masters. Looking for a great US Open comp, how about a third-place finish at Torrey Pines in 2021 and a fourth at Winged Foot (2020). English excels when you need to drive it straight, putt and stay patient. Three great traits for a player ready to take on Oakmont.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (50-1, FanDuel) — Lowry and Fleetwood are like the same player at this point. They’re always hovering around leader boards but never get across the line. Lowry still checks the boxes for me in a U.S. Open winner—he’s super accurate off the tee, ranks third in SG/approach over the past 36 rounds, and is a great scrambler. Consider him in the without Scheffler market and get ready for a frustrating sweat.
Powers, Golf Digest: Harris English (100-1, FanDuel) — English has found his pre-hip injury form and seems to be a prime candidate for a late-career breakthrough in a major. And this one has seemingly become his favorite over the last handful of years, with the five-time PGA Tour winner racking up three top eight finishes in this event since 2020 alone. The tougher the examination, the more I like English’s chances.
Lack: Keegan Bradley (90-1, DraftKings) — Keegan Bradley possesses the well-rounded skill-set I believe is necessary to win a modern U.S. Open. He drives the ball long and straight, and he is an excellent middle to long iron player. Bradley’s experience in the Northeast and on fast Poa greens should also pay dividends at Oakmont as well.
U.S. Open picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Tour coach: Collin Morikawa (22-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Ever since the Masters, Morikawa hasn’t been himself. I saw some very frustrated signs from him on the range at the Memorial. That’s not normal from one of the sweetest swings in the game. This course will eat you up if your game isn’t sharp. The other top players have shown us more and are better-suited to this test.
Mayo: Xander Schauffele (22-1, BetRivers) — Sure, maybe he puts it all together, but that would be first time since last year’s Open. Not really the lead-in form of a U.S. Open winner.
Gdula: Ludvig Aberg (22-1, FanDuel) — Ludvig has shortened noticeably throughout the week and is now in the tier of the top six favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is a bit surprising given his lack of elite finishes since the Masters. He still tends to put a lot of pressure on his putter, and I don’t like that recipe for Oakmont. This is still more about the now-short number than the player, though.
Stewart: Rory McIlroy (12-1, FanDuel) — I’m not quite sure what’s going on with Rory McIlroy’s game, and he might not know either. The emotional dump McIlroy must have done post Masters hasn’t quite finished. Mediocre at Quail Hollow and now argumentative with the media is no way to approach golf’s toughest test on one of the world’s most difficult courses. I’ll pass on Mr. McIlroy and quietly hope his slump lasts far past Bethpage in September.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Collin Morikawa (22-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — The path is just too narrow to Morikawa finding the top of the leader board. His lack of distance (122nd in this field) and clubhead speed compared to the other elites means his off-the-tee game will need to be flawless. He’s been too prone to mistakes in 2025. I don’t think this is a great venue for Morikawa.
Powers, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (12-1, FanDuel) — If anybody could flip it on a dime, it would be Rory, but I genuinely don’t know how you could feel good about backing him right now.
Lack: Xander Schauffele (22-1, BetRivers) — I have considerable concerns about Xander Schauffele’s ability to hit fairways consistently right now. At Muirfield Village, Schauffele ranked toward the bottom of the field in driving accuracy. This kept Schauffele outside of the top 20 at the Memorial, and it might hurt him even more significantly at Oakmont.
U.S. Open picks 2025: Matchups
Tour coach: Joaquin Niemann (-105) over Collin Morikawa (FanDuel) —
Mayo: Keegan Bradley (-110) over Hideki Matsuyama (Coolbet) — Yes, Hideki has the eight US Open cuts made in a row. But remember, he held the longest major cut streak until a month ago, too. He’s just playing bad golf at the moment. Keegan meanwhile enters top five in SG/tee-to-green over the past two months.
Gdula: Tony Finau (-120) over Brooks Koepka (FanDuel) — Finau quietly has a good around-the-green game, and I think that’s going to come in handy at a tricky Oakmont course. He’s got a long-term edge in overall form on Koepka, too.
Stewart: Thorbjorn Olesen (-115) over Davis Thompson (FanDuel) — Any player nicknamed “Thunderbear” is my kind of guy to tail. Thorbjorn Olesen has put together several solid starts over the last month. A solid ball-striker throughout his career, the putter has been popping. Davis Thompson has missed two cuts in his last three starts. Heading into the U.S. Open with inconsistent ball-striking is not a recipe for weekend success. In a match where Oakmont will ultimately win over everyone, I’ll take the Thunderbear against this 100-pound gorilla and Thompson.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Joaquin Niemann (-105) over Collin Morikawa (FanDuel) — Niemann averages nearly 35 yards more off the tee than Morikawa. His clubhead speed will be a huge advantage at Oakmont. I expect Niemann to build off his first top 10 at a major and be a factor again, whereas I think Morikawa’s odds are way too inflated, offering value in this matchup.
Powers, Golf Digest: Keegan Bradley (-110) over Hideki Matsuyama (DraftKings) — The one part of Matsuyama’s game that’s extremely reliable, his iron play, has been anything but over his last nine starts. Bradley, meanwhile, has missed just one cut in 2025 and gained strokes off the tee in all but one start and on approach in all but two. On a week where par is a great score and you don’t need to make a million putts to have a chance, trust the U.S. Ryder Cup captain.
Lack: Ludvig Aberg (+120) over Xander Schauffele (DraftKings) — Here we have two players that are trending in different directions with their driver, which I fully believe will be the most important club in at Oakmont. Schauffele is struggling tremendously to hit fairways at the moment, while Aberg is beginning to find the sweet spot with the big stick once again. I will gladly take the underdog in this matchup.
Matchup Results from the RBC Canadian Open: Tour coach: 1 for 1 (Cam Young (+100) over Clark); Lack: 1 for 1 (Burns (-140) over Hall); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Hall (+100) over Im); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Smalley (-110) over Kitayama; Mayo: PUSH (Mitchell (-110) over Hughes); Hennessey: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Tour coach: 13-5-2 (up 6.31 units); Lack: 12-9-1 (up 2.38 units); Hennessey: 12-10-1 (up 0.93 units); Powers: 12-11-0 (up 0.9 units); Stewart: 10-13-0 (down 3.45 units); Mayo: 7-13-2 (down 6.19 units); Gdula: 8-14-1 (down 7.08 units)
U.S. Open picks 2025: Top 10s
Tour coach: Sepp Straka (+360, Caesars Sportsbook) — Sepp is an absolute ball-striking machine as we’ve seen all year. I think he’s live to win, but I’d say to take him in the without Scottie Scheffler market. He drives it and hits his irons as good as anyone. If nobody’s making putts like 2007 here at Oakmont, he could be in the thick of it until the end.
Mayo: Sepp Straka (+360, Caesars Sportsbook) — Scanning the leaderboard from the 2016 U.S. Open, after Dustin, you’ll see a line of shorter, accuracy players who smack great irons and can get hot putting from time to time. Sepp is one of the tour's most accurate players, onlysecond to Scheffler in SG/approach per round in 2025, and has gained five or more strokes on the green in three of his past eight starts, including two of his past three. Plus, he just won in Pennsylvania a month ago.
Gdula: Tommy Fleetwood (+280, FanDuel) — Fleetwood’s accuracy with driver and precision with irons set up well for Oakmont, and his putting numbers have largely been great since swapping to a mallet. A week of grinding pars sounds right for Fleetwood.
Stewart: Xander Schauffele (+225, Bet365) — Eight starts in the U.S. Open, and Xander Schauffele has seven top 10s. In 32 career major championship starts, Schauffele has 16 top 10s and two wins! Take the 10 places for the X-man and your ticket to the cashier on Sunday.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (+900, FanDuel) — Young played well enough to win last week, making an unforced error trying to press for birdie on the 72nd hole. But he’s shown that his game is nearly back to the 2022 levels, which was good enough to contend at Southern Hills and St. Andrews. He’s back on a classic Northeast (OK, fine, Mid-Atlantic) layout with Poa greens like what he grew up on at Sleepy Hollow. He could absolutely finish in the top 10 here, despite what some of the longer-term data might show.
Powers, Golf Digest: Ludvig Aberg (+245, BetRivers) — This is the one, folks. This is the one that snaps the 0-for-23 streak. After a prolonged post-Genesis victory slump, Aberg has quietly turned it around tee-to-green over his last two starts, resulting in consecutive top-16 finishes. And last week’s T-13 in Canada featured a quadruple bogey from the Swede, plus a double on Sunday. He still only finished five back. Add in the fact he’s finished T-12 or better in half of his six career major starts and we may have a sleeping giant situation at Oakmont.
Lack: Patrick Cantlay (+350, DraftKings) — Similar to Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay possesses an extremely well rounded skill-set, and he has quietly developed into one of the best U.S. Open players of the last decade with four straight top-15s in this event, including a top-five finish last year at Pinehurst. I expect Cantlay to continue his run of strong play at U.S. Opens this week at Oakmont.
Top-10 results from the RBC Canadian Open: Everybody: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Lack: 8 for 23 (up 15.3 units); Swing coach: 5 for 20 (up 9.8 units); Gdula: 7 for 23 (up 8 units); Mayo: 3 for 22 (up 0.33 units); Stewart: 7 for 23 (up 3.1 units); Hennessey: 3 for 23 (down 10 units); Powers: 0 for 23 (down 23 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.