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Travelers Championship 2020 expert picks: Are you crazy to bet on Abraham Ancer? The answer is complicated
Kevin C. Cox
There is no bigger kiss of death for a gambler than taking a victory lap, but there’s nothing wrong with a short victory celebration. We’d be remiss not to mention that the newest member of our expert panel, data scientist Rick Gehman, picked us another outright winner in Webb Simpson (25-1) at Harbour Town. Pat Mayo also plugged Webb on his podcast, and we did, too, on the Golf Digest betting podcast.
Not to brag, but that puts us up 254.96 units collectively on the year. If you’re a casual fan thinking about placing a golf bet, well gosh, hop on the train! Now’s the time to do it, and you’re in the right place.
We know the hot streak will end at some point, but our expert panel will try to keep it going this week at the Travelers Championship. Once again, the field is loaded, featuring nine of the top 10 players in the world rankings, including Patrick Cantlay, who will be making his post-quarantine debut. Despite not playing the last two weeks, Cantlay is 25-1, lower odds than Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Abraham Ancer and Bubba Watson, who all popped last week at the RBC Heritage. Will he be sharp from the start? Or will he go the way of Hideki Matsuyama, who returned last week and was shaky at best.
Read on for the analysis from our leading panel, which includes an anonymous tour caddie; Gehman and Mayo; Brandon Gdula of FanDuel, who has picked four winners correctly himself this season; Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports, who has nailed three victors; and two Golf Digest jabronis from New Jersey, who have managed to combine to pick a few winners ourselves.
2020 Travelers Championship Picks To Win (Odds from BetMGM)
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Justin Thomas (12-1) — Justin Thomas' iron game is as good as anyone in the world right now. Consider how good JT has been in the past 16 events: He has three wins and 10 finishes inside the top 10. That is matched by only Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy. It feels like he's peaking yet again for Win No. 4. (Editor's Note: Our caddie's pick was originally Brooks Koepka, before Koepka withdrew from the Travelers after his caddie tested positive with covid-19.)
Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National analyst: Dustin Johnson (28-1) — We’re seeing a quiet return to form from DJ. After struggling at Colonial, DJ was solid at Heritage, and no one seemed to notice. Especially the broadcast. Paired with Brooks Koepka in the final round, we got a lot of Brooks on TV and very little DJ. Now, he only finished T-17, but the stats reveal some really positive trends. For the week, he was second in the field driving the ball, seventh in strokes gained/ball-striking, and eighth SG/tee-to-green. He simply couldn’t chip (he lost 1.6 strokes around the green) or putt (-0.2 SG/putting). Moving to a venue where driving means more than short game, and on his preferred Poa annua putting surface (he gains 0.3 strokes putting on Poa per round), this could be last week to grab DJ at a discount.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Dustin Johnson (28-1) — I’m with Mayo. DJ is an attractive price, even though he underperforms that a smidge in my simulations. The real reason I like Dustin this week is that he gains strokes off the tee week after week. That’s shown to be pretty vital at TPC River Highlands, via datagolf’s numbers, and he’s fifth in the world in field-adjusted strokes gained/off the tee in 2020. And he has gained off the tee in every event this year. In these two weeks back, the only stat that has been remotely predictive week to week has been off-the-tee strokes gained. I’m good soaking up the value on Johnson and allowing myself to make more mid-tier bets.
Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Bryson DeChambeau (12-1) — The statistical profile of DeChambeau is too strong for him NOT to win soon. And TPC River Highlands will allow him to use his “superpowers” much more than Colonial and Harbour Town. Despite the “bad fits” the last two weeks, DeChambeau finished one shot out of a playoff at Colonial and notched a T-8 at Harbour Town. He leads the field in strokes gained/total and is on the verge of breaking through.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Abraham Ancer (33-1) — This is not a sharp play, and it doesn’t contain any value. I took Ancer last week as my sleeper at 66-1, and now his odds have been chopped in half. Any gambling expert would tell you to stay away (and in fact they have … just read below). But I’m sticking by Ancer. He was so elite off the tee (13.7 strokes gained) and on approaches (11.8 SG) last week, and those are vital stats at TPC River Highlands. And these ball-striking stats look good over a longer sample size, too. Per FantasyNational.com, over the past 50 rounds, Ancer is 11th in this field in strokes gained/off-the-tee, 23rd on approaches and 11th overall. You saw the determination on Sunday: This is a guy who believes he can win. I’m with him, even if it’s a public play, as Jeff Sherman from the Westgate Superbook told us on the podcast this week that Ancer has been one of the most popular bets this week. On second thought, being on the side of the sharps out in Vegas isn’t a bad place to be.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest assistant editor: Bubba Watson (33-1) — Based out of what I’ve seen and heard from the gambling community so far this week, this pick is chalkier than a Barack Obama March Madness bracket. But Webb Simpson was the consensus pick at Harbour Town, and look how that turned out! It was crushing to not be in on the Webb action last week, and I don’t want to make the same mistake twice. Plus, there is a reason everyone is high on Bubba. Not only is TPC River Highlands his personal playground (three wins here), but he’s playing extremely well post-quarantine. He finished seventh at Colonial and 52nd at RBC Heritage, but he ended on a final-round, six-under 65. He’s gained strokes in every area the last two starts except for around the greens and on the greens last week, understandable given his lack of success on Bermuda. Back in familiar territory in Cromwell and with him trending in the right direction, Watson is a great pick.
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Lee Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Bryson DeChambeau (12-1) — DeChambeau came close again last week and is just playing lights out golf. If you’ve watched him closely the past two weeks, he really has burned so many edges with his putter. If some of those drop, this could be a Bryson week.
Results from this season: We have correctly predicted 10 of the first 23 winners to start the season. Data scientist Rick Gehman picked Webb Simpson (25-1) as his outright winner last week as his welcome to the panel! DraftKings expert Pat Mayo has nailed two of the previous four tour winners in this column (Tyrrell Hatton (55-1) at Bay Hill and Sungjae Im’s Honda win at 28-1), and also gave out Webb on his podcast. FanDuel’s Brandon Gdula nearly predicted his fifth outright victory the week before, narrowly missing a win with Xander Schauffele. He’s up 112 units this season on his outright bets (the equivalent of being up $1,120 on $10 bets), followed closely by FanShare Sports’ Lee Alldrick, who has three winning predictions this season. Golf Digest's betting panel continues to be the hottest golf betting panel in the industry, as collectively, counting outright winners, top-10 bets and matchups won and lost, we are up 254.96 units (the equivalent of being up $2,549 if you wagered $10 on all of our bets).
Sleepers/Dark Horses That Could Win the 2020 Travelers Championship (odds from BetMGM)
Caddie: Dylan Frittelli (150-1) — The young South African played some flawless golf to cap off last week, shooting a final-round 62, and he was a factor early in the week as well. Frittelli’s strength is his precision off the tee, which is what TPC River Highlands demands. If he rolls it well, he could be dangerous again this week.
Mayo: Sergio Garcia (50-1) — It’s crazy how good Sergio Garcia hit it last week: His 13.9 strokes gained/off-the-tee are the most ever in his player profile on FantasyNational.com. And he led everyone in birdies, yet still missed five putts inside five feet. It’s not a stretch to say that he could’ve made three of those five and won the tournament. Now, this isn’t surprising; Sergio is a wildly streaky putter. In his last 15 measured events, Sergio has gained on the greens six times. In those six positive events, he’s gained an average of 2.58 strokes/putting, and when he loses strokes on the greens, he does so by an average of 2.98 strokes. Like I said, wild swings. Tilting, even. But that’s the game you play with great ball-strikers who can be the worst putters on the course. Sergio finished T-2 here in 2014, and if he can have one of those positive weeks on the greens, TPC River Highlands suits his game perfectly.
Gdula: Scottie Scheffler (70-1) — Scheffler didn’t play last week, but we got to see him play the Charles Schwab, when he finished 55th. He did that with elite ball-striking with an awful short game, which is what Scheffler offers each week. Scheffler is a top-25 player tee-to-green in 2020, and that’s better than we can say about a lot of golfers priced around 70-1. I’d also be fine capping the long shots at 50-1 with Tony Finau and/or Gary Woodland, given how tough this field is.
Gehman: Brian Harman (66-1) — Outside of Bubba Watson and Paul Casey, Harman’s tournament history is unmatched. He has earned three top-eight finishes in his past five trips to TPC River Highlands, and his game seems to be improving. Per the RickRunGood.com database, his last two events have been his best strokes-gained events since the 2019 Shriners. He’s one of only nine players in the field who gain strokes in all four major categories. A golfer who has great history and whose game is rounding into form creates an interesting investment opportunity.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jason Kokrak (90-1) — I love the other calls by the other experts; I will betting them all. But add Kokrak to your mix. Since the restart, the big-hitter is fifth in strokes gained/off-the-tee, helped by his furious rally at Colonial. Kokrak plays well on courses that emphasize precision off the tee, and you need to find the fairway at TPC River Highlands. Kokrak is a good top-20 bet and worth a sprinkle at this price as he looks for a first win. I’ll also note that Ryan Palmer (100-1 at BetMGM) has my attention, as well, as someone who plays well on courses where you need to place your ball in the fairway.
Powers, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (50-1) — Hard to call Hov a true dark horse, but the number makes him a slight one (although it has moved from 60-1 to 50-1 overnight at BetMGM). In each of the last two weeks, it’s been one bad round that has kept the former U.S. Amateur winner out of serious contention, and he’s still managed to post back-to-back top-25s. Last year, he made his pro debut at the Travelers and opened with 67 before fading on the weekend (T-54). Since then he’s finished T-16 or better seven times on tour, including his victory at this season’s Puerto Rico Open in February, which might as well have happened five years ago. With Collin Morikawa popping the last two weeks and Matthew Wolff getting the look in the TaylorMade Driving Relief event, Hovland has become the forgotten man in this trio. Maybe this is a week to rectify that.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Brian Harman (66-1) — The lefty ranks third on strokes-gained/putting on Poa greens, which begins to explain his success here. And to Rick’s point, he’s playing well: He ranks fourth in for Opportunities Gained out of players who have made the cut since the return.
Players to Fade This Week (who will disappoint)
Caddie: Paul Casey (33-1) — I'm picking him to fade because we haven't seen him hit a shot since our return to golf. In this range, we’ve seen everyone else’s game on display, so I’d rather go elsewhere. He’s priced here for his course history (four top-fives is really impressive), but I’ve seen every other golfer out here hit shots, which makes me question these low odds for Casey.
Mayo: Abraham Ancer (33-1) — Good player, great form, terrible odds. Maybe he’ll get that elusive first win. Maybe. But you’re paying a premium in a field that has the depth of a major. For example, Ancer is still 65-1 to win the PGA Championship. And 85 percent of that field is at TPC River Highlands this week.
Gdula: Abraham Ancer (33-1) — Ancer’s ball-striking has been amazing; better than anyone else’s if we look at the percentage of rounds he’s gained in off the tee and approach play in the tour’s return. However, that’s still an eight-round sample, and he’s priced near studs such as Dustin Johnson and Xander Schauffele. His irons are bound to cool off this week, he’s bound to miss more fairways, and he has very rarely shown the high-end putting variance required to take home a tournament.
Gehman: Patrick Reed (40-1) — Reed is one of the streakiest players on tour, and we might be catching him in the midst of a downward trend. He missed the cut last week at Harbour Town, losing 3.89 strokes on approach and another 0.93 on the greens. With the plethora of great options at both 35-1 and 45-1, there’s little reason to consider Reed.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Bubba Watson (28-1) — Kudos to anyone who jumped on Bubba Watson at 40-1. At 28-1, which I'm seeing at BetMGM as I type this on Wednesday? That's a bit too steep. The range of outcomes in which Bubba misses the cut is extremely higher than the rest of the players in this range. Sure, he might have equal amount of win equity, but this being an unusual week, I don't think speaks to a win from Bubba. (Note: My original fade was Webb Simpson, who WD due to taking precautions with positive tests of covid-19 at the Travelers.)
Powers, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (10-1) — I like the angle that a more open course could flip the switch for Rory, but until he shows us something on a Sunday I'm not wasting my money on him. (My fade was also Webb Simpson, which erases the rare time when Steve and I agreed.)
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Patrick Cantlay (25-1) — Not only is this Cantlay’s first event back post-return, but Cantlay doesn’t putt very well on Poa greens. He ranks 94th for strokes-gained/putting on Poa greens out of all players in the field this week. We can expect the rust to show in this first outing.
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2020 Travelers Championship Matchups
Caddie: Abraham Ancer (-130) over Paul Casey (Bovada) — Consider that Ancer only missed seven greens at Harbour Town, a venue with some of the smallest, most difficult to hit greens of the year. And you’ll get an idea of how well he’s playing right now. He gained nearly 12 strokes on the field last week on his approaches, per FantasyNational.com. He's quickly becoming one of the most consistent players on tour, so it’s easy to bet on him, especially with the uncertainty with Casey.
Mayo: Sergio Garcia (-120) over Ian Poulter (DraftKings Sportsbook) — In a clash of Ryder Cup stars (RIP till 2021), Sergio’s ball-striking skills should prevail at a course where short game loses much of its influence. Poulter, now and always, is not a great driver of the ball.
Gdula: Xander Schauffele (-105) over Patrick Cantlay (FanDuel Sportsbook) — Xander struggled hard last week, but research shows that one-week samples aren’t very predictive with golf. Long-term form is what matters. Few have better long-term form and stats than Cantlay, but Schauffele is right there, too. With the rust knocked off, Schauffele rates out better for me than Cantlay. We’ve seen golfers come back hot, of course, but we’ve also seen a few struggle out of the gate.
Gehman: Sungjae Im (-110) over Tony Finau (DraftKings Sportsbook) — Sungjae Im is playing on another level compared to Tony Finau. Since losing in a playoff at the Waste Management Open to Webb Simpson, Finau hasn’t finished better than T-23. In the same stretch, Im has four finishes better than Finau’s best finish including a win, a third and another top 10.
Hennessey: Marc Leishman (+100) over Matthew Fitzpatrick (BetMGM) — You likely think of Matthew Fitzpatrick as an extremely precise driver of the ball. And that’s usually the case. But the Englishman is only 75th in this field since the restart off the tee. Fitzpatrick has saved himself with his putter, ranking second in strokes gained/putting. Experts will tell you that putting doesn’t tend to project future success as it’s so hit or miss week to week. So you’re getting a well-rested Marc Leishman, a past champion at TPC River Highlands, over Fitz who’s struggling a bit off the tee.
Powers: Jon Rahm (+105) over Justin Thomas (DraftKings) — Rolled with Rahm over Rory last week and he clipped him by a shot. Nice little Sunday sweat. For some reason, I want some more of that sweat with this matchup, which will no doubt be down to the wire on Sunday again. Two top players, both trending nicely. Rahm hasn't had the full explosion yet like Thomas did last Sunday, though. I'm betting that changes and we see a crazy-low round from the Spaniard this week, which should be enough to win this matchup.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Xander Schauffele (-105) over Patrick Cantlay (FanDuel Sportsbook) — Schauffele is playing stellar golf right now, ranking sixth in the field in strokes gained/tee-to-green in 2020. The difference to me: He gains 0.3 strokes per round on Cantlay on Poa greens. Not a big difference, but significant enough. Plus potential for Cantlay to be rusty is enough for me to take Xander.
Matchup results from the RBC Heritage: Powers: 1 for 1 (Jon Rahm (+115) over Rory McIlroy); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Webb Simpson (-110) over Patrick Reed); Alldrick: 1 for 1 (Adam Hadwin (-110) over Harold Varner III); Tour Caddie: 1 for 1 (Joel Dahmen (-110) over Jason Day); Gehman: 1 for 1 (Daniel Berger (-120) over Jordan Spieth); Mayo: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1.
Matchup results this season (assuming each matchup is a one unit wager): Alldrick: 14 wins, 5 losses, 2 pushes (up 7.04 units); Hennessey: 7 wins, 4 losses (up 4.15 units); Tour Caddie: 10 wins, 7 losses, 1 push (up 2.74 units); Powers: 6 wins, 4 losses, 1 push (up 2.6 units); Gehman: 2 wins, 0 losses (up 1.77 units); Mayo: 10 wins, 11 losses (down 0.69 units); Gdula: 7 wins, 11 losses, 2 pushes (down 3.09 units)
Top 10 (odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Caddie: Justin Thomas (+125) — I know, not a bold play. But sometimes you don’t need to be bold to make money. played extremely well over the weekend at the RBC. When his game starts to click he is a contending machine. I think his game is right there and this week he will be contending, there's no doubt about it.
Mayo: Max Homa (+1200) — Homa has gained off the tee in each of his nine 2020 starts and gained more than six strokes on his approaches at the RBC Heritage. Homa was fifth earlier this year at Riviera, and he does his best putting on Poa surfaces. His odds were initially inflated because of his newfound internet celebrity emerging from hiatus, but they've settled back down the board now. Like DJ, Homa was quietly top-10 in driving, approach and tee-to-green at Heritage. As has become a theme, the dude couldn't putt or chip. If he flips it, the stats say he should contend.
Gdula: Collin Morikawa (+300) — Morikawa is coming off a lowly 64th-place finish last week at the RBC Heritage, which came with a loss of 2.5 strokes/putting on Bermuda greens. He’s better on Bentgrass and poa, which is where he is this week. Morikawa is a near lock to gain strokes with his approach play (though he did lose in approach (barely) last week). The larger point is that Morikawa was runner-up at a par 70 two weeks ago, and he’s a near lock to gain strokes on the field off the tee and with his approach play. We’ve got a solid number on him for a top-10. I’ve also bet him to win at 33-1.
Gehman: Joaquin Niemann (+334) — Niemann flashed brilliance on the weekend at Harbour Town, firing rounds of 63 and 65 to vault into contention. He was fourth in the field in strokes gained/approach on the weekend, which should be no surprise for close followers of his game. Niemann has gained strokes in that category in 15 consecutive events, dating back to the 2019 Wyndham Championship.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Sungjae Im (+300) — As our Rick Gehman pointed out in his DFS article this week, Sungjae uncharacteristically lost more than four strokes on the green last week at RBC Heritage, his highest total since the 2019 RBC Heritage. The guy will be pumped to see a more benign set of putting surfaces like TPC River Highlands.’ He’s still an elite ball-striker; in fact he’s been the best on approach since the restart and seventh off the tee in the past two weeks, which should portend success here.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jason Day (+750) — Despite all the evidence telling me to quit Jason Day, I simply cannot as his numbers continue to grow to insane heights. He’s 100-1 this week. 100-1, at the Travelers! This is Jason Day we are talking about, people. I know he’s been terrible (three straight missed cuts), but he tends to pop randomly at places he likes (see: Pebble this year, where he finished fourth). Day finished eighth at Travelers a year ago and 12th the year before. He has to get the train back on the tracks at some point.
Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Bubba Watson (+300) — As others have outlined, this is one of the Bubba courses you can ride him. This tournament gets a good field but not quite this good, so while it’ll be tougher than normal years for Bubba to win, a top-10 bet at 3-1 odds seems like nice odds.
Top 10 results from RBC Heritage: Gehman: 1 for 1 (Abraham Ancer (+600); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Webb Simpson (+350); Mayo: 0 for 1; Tour Caddie: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1; Alldrick: 0 for 1.
Top 10 results for the season (assuming one unit wager): Mayo: 4 for 20 (up 16.5 units); Alldrick: 5 for 20 (up 6.5 units); Hennessey: 3 for 10 (up 6 units); Gehman: 1 for 2 (up 5 units); Gdula: 3 for 21 (down 2.8 units); Powers: 1 for 10 (down 7.35 units); Tour Caddie: 1 for 19 (down 14.5 units).
By The Numbers:
Courtesy of Rick Gehman:
159.84: The number of total strokes gained for Webb Simpson since the start of the 2019 season, second to only Rory McIlroy.
24: Abraham Ancer’s world golf ranking, the highest for any player without a win on the PGA Tour or European Tour.
112: The number of total strokes under par for Bubba Watson in his career at the Travelers Championship. Includes three wins and three additional top-10s.
7: The number of tournaments won by golfers over 50 years old in PGA Tour history. This week, Phil Mickelson makes his first start since turning 50.
In addition to Gehman’s DFS rundown, here’s some fantasy advice for this week from FanShare Sports’ Lee Alldrick:
Under The Radar DFS Pick – Chez Reavie - $7,300 — The recent results, four MCs and a 74th place since the Sony Open, have led to many abandoning Chez Reavie. That’s an opportunity for gaining leverage in a DraftKings Millionaire Maker field. Look deeper, and he hasn’t been playing that badly, and this course is absolutely suited to his strengths. In the other three events he’s played, the 2019 Travelers winner has a 10th-place finish (Riviera, another ball-striking venue), a 25th and a 29th. And don’t forget, No. 39 in the world, so he has been playing consistent golf over a longer sample size. Reavie also ranks 30th in the field for Opportunities Gained this year. At TPC River Highlands, in addition to the win he has made seven of his last eight cuts here, so you’re getting a discount and likely low ownership. Huge pluses.
Value DFS Pick – Jason Day - $7,500 — Super-low price for a player with such a high ceiling. Day has finished top-30 finishes here in four of the past five seasons, including back-to-back finishes inside the top 12 here. And looking at all of our metrics, J-Day is actually ranked first in the course-suitability rankings, which tells us there’s a chance he turns it around a bit here. Day still ranks 26th in the field for strokes gained/tee-to-green in 2020, and let’s not forget he’s a fantastic putter on Poa greens, ranking fifth in the field in strokes gained/putting on Poa. A good course fit on a course with Poa surfaces … that sounds similar to Pebble Beach for J-Day. And he finishes fourth in that scenario … just five events ago. At this price, there is absolute value to playing Day in some lineups.
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About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. (Subscribe for video or audio. Mayo (@ThePME) won the 2020 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award, and was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 21 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are third-most all-time. Mayo is on the board of governors at www.fantasynational.com.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 fantasy sports-writers association Golf Writer of the Year *(congrats, Brandon!)*. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast.
Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.
Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports started out writing an article highlighting the best bargain plays for fantasy golf under his twitter handle @DKGolfBargains. His success at this prompted FanShare Sports to enlist him as a guest writer, which evolved into him writing the weekly Under The Radar article. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldrick’s insight into European Tour regulars and low priced, low owned plays has provided an invaluable edge for readers when it comes to DFS GPPs.