The Genesis Invitational

Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)



    Read The Line

    Why our PGA pro is fading Rory at TGL vs. LAGC

    Editor's Note: This article is published in partnership with Read The Line, a Golf Digest content partner.

    February 04, 2025
    2196306720

    Megan Briggs/TGL

    Boston and Los Angeles are two cities with a storied sports rivalry. Although TGL is not going to make us harken back to the Bird-Magic NBA Championship wars of the 80s, it is important for TGL to lean into the hometown fans and their history. The start-up league continues to draw viewers even after four weeks. Week 5 presents a single match once again. We'll take a break for the Genesis Invitational and then we have the 10 regular season H2H matches remaining over just three weeks! That makes sense because it is also the time when the PGA Tour transitions to Florida.

    When Match #5 starts tonight, you will see the 1-0 Los Angeles Golf Club square off against the 0-1 Boston Common Golf. It's going to be a quick turnaround for all six Match #5 players. Each of them played in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am that wrapped on Sunday evening. I know these guys all fly private jets, but all three teammates for Boston also played last Monday as well.

    Watch the below video as PGA professional Keith Stewart breaks down his thoughts on Tom Kim at the WM Phoenix Open. Watch his full video of betting analysis with Run Pure Sports' Matthew Wiley here.

    The format, course, and starting lineups

    The TGL format remains the same as our first four matches. If you missed the first couple of matches and you are curious how it works, their website does an excellent job of explaining the league rules with quick videos (​​​​TGL EXPLAINED​​​​).

    Tommy Fleetwood starts the Triples format in Match #5. Along with holding the honor on the first tee, the LAGC also starts the evening with the Hammer. Fleetwood will be followed by his Ryder Cup partner Rory McIlroy who leads off for BCG once again. BCG will employ the same three players in the same order for two weeks in a row. Possibly a situation to second guess the Beantown Bombers after their loss to Jupiter Links? After all, they held the early lead. Through the first three matches, the team that grabbed the first lead went on to win (3-0). Between the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup there's some serious match-play history between these six players, and as such the tightest match yet to handicap this young season.

    Keith's "TGL" Keys 🗞️

    A couple of key insights you can claim as your own idea at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations.

    1. Ball-speed wins: BCG leads the league in team driving distance, LAGC ranks fifth after their first match.
    2. Hit GIRs: BCG hit 67% of their GIRs last week while LAGC only hit 47% of their GIRs in Match #2.
    3. ARG acumen: BCG lost in overtime because they could not pitch the ball close. Short game skill has determined our winner each and every week. Both of these teams are comparable in ARG skill.

    We have three brand-new holes in this week's design. Hang Low (par 4, 488 yards, hole 6), Fallen Pine (par 3, 194 yards, hole 7), and Navigator (par 5, 590 yards, hole 15). The 15-hole scorecard reads par 60 and measures 6,010 yards, just slightly longer than last week. Our average par 3 is 176 yards, par 4 434 yards, and par 5 592 yards. The total yardage is a little more than last week, but overall, this layout is shorter than the courses used for Match 1, 2, and 3. As one match week blends into another, these scorecard designs are evolving. Part of what led to a closer match between Boston and Jupiter was the layout. Match 1 between the Bay Club and New York was 408 yards longer by comparison! By dialing in the appropriate length and variety of shots, we are going to see a better overall competition.

    By losing to the Jupiter Links Golf Club, Boston Common Golf has now dropped to third on the odds board behind Los Angeles and Atlanta Drive to win the SoFi Cup. Blink and this schedule will be over in March. BCG needs to attack this evening early and often. If any team can do it, they have the firepower. Rory just won the AT&T on Sunday and although Adam Scott had a mediocre start in Monterey, he finished the week 18th in strokes gained/tee to green. Captain Keegan still seems to be battling the same issues that plagued his game last week against JLGC. Bradley finished T-65 at Pebble Beach.

    Loa Angeles was led by their elder statesman Justin Rose who was fourth T2G and survived a wild Saturday of weather at Pebble Beach. Collin Morikawa and Tommy Fleetwood were not as sharp in the wind but still solid. Overall, the two LAGC ball-strikers held their own in a signature field. As we head back into the friendly conditions of the SoFi Center, will players be able to easily shake the weather worries, or will the trajectory issues of the weekend carry on.

    • Los Angeles Golf Club (-110) - Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose (Sahith Theegala sitting out)
    • Boston Common Golf (-110) - Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley (Hideki Matsuyama sitting)​​​​

    The moneyline succinctly shows how tight this match is. When the odds opened on Friday, LAGC was a slight favorite. I believe most of that is a reaction to Boston Common's performance last week. Losing to Tiger's team was a rough start. These two teams are very tight on paper and will definitely give the viewers another close match in the SoFi Center.

    Match breakdown

    These are two of the marquee TGL teams facing off tonight. When the rosters were first announced, Boston Common Golf and Los Angeles Golf Club definitely excelled on draft night. We'll never know if there was a draft, or how these players were picked, but since the first SoFi Cup odds were announced Boston and LA were at the top of the betting board. Buoyed by his 27th career PGA Tour win over the weekend, Rory McIlroy and the same two partners travel back across the continent to compete. The longest TGL team, Boston is heavily favored in driving distance. LAGC is currently ranked fifth in SG/off the tee while BCG is ranked first.

    I mentioned the course designers have found a competitive sweet-spot right around 6,000 yards for 15 holes. In doing so, the longer teams have gained a slight advantage. By shortening the course length, the longer teams can reach the par 5s, cut the doglegs off the tee and attack the par 4s from closer than their opponents. Getting closer allows the teams to secure more greens in regulation. The Bay Club and Atlanta Drive hit more GIRs than any other team(s) to date. That's effectively the recipe to winning TGL.

    The three players on LA's squad finished inside the top 11 T2G statistically. "Well golf isn't played on paper," but it is played indoors for TGL. Morikawa, Rose and Fleetwood all finished inside the top 18 on approach as well. Sure Rory won, but Keegan Bradley was ineffective at the AT&T and Adam's Scott total of 10 under was mainly bolstered by an eight-under 64 on Sunday. As a whole, I believe LA brings more to the table this week even with Rory's Sunday back-nine rout. BCG may be longer off the tee, but they won't hit as many GIRs as LA. That edge is too significant and as a result they win this week.

    The singles ultimately decide this when Keegan doesn't come through and the others split in a very evenly played six holes.

    • Fleetwood versus McIlroy: Bonnie Link (Hole 10) has been played twice and halved both times. That's good news for Tommy Fleetwood as he'll be quite far behind Rory McIlroy off the tee. No birdies or bogeys on this one to date; they will continue the trend and tie. Hole 13 (The Plank) started the first two TGL matches. It played longer then, approximately 380 yards, as this version is drivable. At 302 yards, it is a perfect driver for Fleetwood, while Rory is in-between clubs. Fleetwood fits a drive in close and takes the hole from the majestic McIlroy.
    • Morikawa versus Scott: Collin Morikawa is the only player to win both holes in his singles match. These two start on Bluebonnet (Hole 11). This standard par 4 provides players with an easy fairway to hit (83% success rate so far) and green (75% success rate). No putts have been made outside of eight feet, these two tie with par and move on. Their second hole, par 3 Set in Stone ( Hole 14), will catch Collin's attention. I watched Morikawa's iron game closely at the AT&T, and it looked much better than last year. I like Collin to hit a close one here and win the hole over Adam Scott.
    • Rose versus Bradley: I doubt these two Ryder Cup competitors will have much to say for their two head-to-head holes. This is where I see the overall match playing out in LAGC's favor. Captain Keegan was great in his first three starts, but lost strokes in three of the four main strokes gained categories at Pebble while Justin Rose was awesome. Par 3s are a TGL key to winning and Cliffhanger is a tough one to start. Rose wins Hole 12. These two close with a new par 5; Navigator. At 590 yards, this should be a three-shot hole for both. I'll give the edge to Rose for hitting it closer after this weekend, but in the end they both make par and halve the hole.

    Enjoy the match tonight. TGL takes a break next week and returns on Monday, February 17 with three matches! Tuesday the eighteenth, we will have one more match. Four matches in two days, and I'll be there for all of them. Enjoy the on-site coverage as we continue to clean-up at the SoFi Center...

    Match 5 Betting Card: Boston Common Golf vs. Los Angeles Golf Club

    Match winner:
    Los Angeles Golf Club (-110 Bet365)

    Lead after 9-holes:
    Los Angeles Golf Club (+105 Bet365)

    Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline.