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Crunching the Numbers

PGA Championship 2024: Justin Rose has chance to match this obscure record at Valhalla

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Andrew Redington

We’ll forgive you if you haven’t thought much about Justin Rose in recent years. It’s not that the 43-year-old Englishman has been off the golf radar—he won at Pebble Beach in 2023, played on the victorious European Ryder Cup team in Italy and qualifed for the PGA Tour's signature events in 2024. But his play this year—one top-25 finish in 10 starts on the PGA Tour—has been so-so and even when it has been good, Rose has attracted little fanfare.

Latest case in point: On Saturday during the third round of the 2024 PGA Championship, Rose put together a scintillating 64 that moved him in shouting distance of the leaders. It was the second lowest score of the day at Valhalla Golf Club, but was overshadowed by the fact that the man who shot the lowest, Shane Lowry with a 62, was playing in the same group.

Rose begins Sunday’s final round three shots back of co-leaders Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa, playing in the fourth-to-last twosome with Robert MacIntyre. Datagolf gives him just a 1.5 percent chance to win, but a 57.4 percent chance for a top-10, which would allow him to match an obscure PGA Championship stat.

In the last four PGA Championships, Rose has finished no worse than T-13. Here’s his specific results:

2020, TPC Harding Park, ninth

2021, Kiawah, T-8

2022, Southern Hills, T-13

2023, Oak Hill, T-9

Another top-15 finish then would make it five straight top-15s in the major. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, in the last 40 years, only two players have accomplished that feat—Brooks Koepka, who had a streak of six straight from 2014-2019, and Jason Day, from 2013-17.

Rose has also done this all while over the age of 40, an interesting fact that would also allow him to match another obscure PGA record. According to Elias, just one golfer has had five consecutive top-15 finishes at the PGA after his 40th birthday. Sam Snead accomplished the feat from 1956 to 1960.

That said, a top-15 isn't what Rose will be gunning for on Sunday. With his career moving along, the number of reasonable cracks he has at winning another major to add to his 2013 U.S. Open triumph are likely to be limited. Seizing the moment then this week is top of mind.

"Yeah, I mean, listen, that's what I'm working towards," Rose said on Saturday. "Still believe in myself. Still believe that I have these opportunities in me in majors for sure … because that's what's motivating me to stick with it and keep working hard is to try to give myself like the Indian summer of my career. Try to still steal one or two of these to really make it a fantastic career."

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