U.S. Open
June 17, 2015

Here's what we're willing to wager that an amateur makes the cut at Chambers Bay

Having not been given formal approval from my wife, I cannot officially wager my house on the following statement. I do, however, have slightly more authority over my daughter's doll house, so I will put that up right now as collateral.

An amateur will make the cut this week at the U.S. Open!

How can I be so certain as to risk the tears and misery of snatching my little one's favorite play thing if I am wrong? I offer three key factors that provide me the courage of facing my daughter's wrath.

I'll start with history. At least one amateur as made the cut in 16 of the last 19 U.S. Opens. Nine times in that span (and six times in the last seven years, two or more have gone on to play four rounds in the national championship.

Then there's sheer numbers. There are 16 amateurs competing this week at Chambers Bay,  the most to play in the U.S. Open since 2009 and the most before that since 1981. I don't even pull out the transitive property from my bag of mathematical magic, but rather can evoke the basic logic that with more amateurs in the field, the more chances I have that at least one of them will make the cut.

Third, and most important, is this: these amateurs are pretty darn good. Several have already played in major championships and even made the cut in previous U.S. Opens. All of them legitimately have a chance to shine this week.