Betting Analysis
CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks 2025: Why there's reason to be hopeful for Jordan Spieth
This week's CJ Cup Byron Nelson does not boast what we'd describe as a strong field, especially coming on the heels of the Masters, the RBC Heritage and yes, even the Zurich, where recent career grand slam winner Rory McIlroy graced New Orleans with his presence.
That said, we will see the Texas duo of Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth, the two top favorites to win this week at TPC Craig Ranch. It could be far worse, folks.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of TPC Craig Ranch, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson:
CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Scottie Scheffler (+300, BetMGM) — I know it’s not fun to take a favorite this low, but Scheffler is just far and away the class of the field—and this is the type of event he can find his confidence and record his first win. I really love him to win here. He’ll prove Phil wrong and get that first win of 2025 heading into the rest of the majors.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Byeong Hun An (28-1, BetRivers) — I understand getting past 20 under requires making a few putts and I’m picking the player least likely to make any of those. But here I am. A sucker. An has as rediscovered his elite tee-to-green game after some early-season struggles, and maybe getting to tackle an easy course (and one with a lot of hole outs) is exactly what he needs to push him over the top.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Jordan Spieth (18-1, FanDuel) — Jordan Spieth’s event log shows a lot of spike potential in all four strokes-gained areas. He just hasn’t spiked in all of them in a single week in a while. He’s got two top-10 finishes at TPC Craig Ranch in his career, and we’ve seen Spieth finish top 20 in three straight starts.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Si Woo Kim (33-1, BetRivers) — Si Woo Kim is always an incredible ball-striker. When the putter gets hot for Si Woo, look out for low scores. An eighth-place finish at the RBC Heritage, gaining over three strokes with his flat stick, this is one of those moments where we jump on the Si Woo super coaster. It won’t be a smooth ride, but Kim is an elite player who can separate from the contenders in this very average field.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Si Woo Kim (33-1, BetRivers) — Si Woo does a lot of the things you want to see here at TPC Craig Ranch: He’s 12th in Birdie or Better percentage since the start of 2025, per RickRunGood.com, he’s seventh in par-5 scoring, he’s 22nd in SG/off the tee and he’s a great long-iron player. His Sunday at Harbour Town was frustrating, but he outplayed that elite field for 54 holes, so I know he can edge out this weaker field if he gives us a similar performance.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Michael Thorbjornsen (80-1, Bet365) — Thor is my new Great White Buffalo. I will be chasing him until he gets his first win, and this is a great price to try and cash in on for a potential star coming off a T-2 at Corales and a T-4 alongside former Stanford teammate Karl Vilips at Zurich.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Jordan Spieth (18-1, FanDuel) — Jordan Spieth enters this event on the heels of three consecutive top-20 finishes, and he is also beginning to putt the ball at a much more consistent level, now gaining strokes on the greens in three consecutive starts. Spieth’s newly revitalized driver-putter combo should play beautifully at TPC Craig Ranch, and I’m expecting a strong performance out of the Dallas native.
Past results: We have ANOTHER winner! Brandon Gdula cashes his first outright of 2025 by correctly predicting Justin Thomas’ Harbour Town victory at 20-1. That came just one week after our anonymous swing coach nailed Rory McIlroy yet again at the Masters (+650) after picking him at the Players (12-1), too. The panel now has picked six winners in the first 16 events of 2025.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Alejandro Tosti (90-1, FanDuel) — He’s not a popular player on tour, but that won’t stop us from cashing this ticket. He’s coming off three top 12s, not counting the team event. He’s fiery and streaky, and in a weak field, he’s a great bet to rack up a ton of birdies and find his way to the top of the board.
Mayo: Sami Valimaki (110-1, FanDuel) — There straight top 20s for the Wacky Finn and now gets a course which is perfectly suited to mitigate his struggles off the tee. Valimaki’s second in this field in approach over the past 24 rounds and has gained with his putter in eight of his past nine starts.
Gdula: Tom Kim (60-1, FanDuel) — Tom Kim is one of the top iron players in the field (third over his last 50 rounds, per datagolf), and it’s the putter that’s let him down most weeks. The putting has been back up the last two starts – but the irons fell off. The number is too long for someone who can lead a field in approach or putting in any given week.
Stewart: Jake Knapp (55-1, FanDuel) — After six top-30 finishes in his past eight events, Jake Knapp is on more than just a quick heater. Knapp has ball speed to burn off the tee and awesome on approach all spring. The putter is solid too as Jake is ranked third in birdie-or-better percentage for this field. Throw in a third place at Zurich and an eighth-place one year ago at Byron Nelson, and we have a long shot who certainly catches my attention.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jacob Bridgeman (50-1, FanDuel) — The talented 25-year-old from Clemson has emerged as one of the bright young stars on the PGA Tour, and this should be a great fit for him. He’s third in weighted SG/total in 2025 in this field, 20th in Birdie or Better percentage, third in SG/par 3s over 200-plus yards (all four par 3s are in this bucket), and he’s a great long iron player. That’s a great recipe to the top of the leader board, and he already has the experience contending this year with a T-2 at PGA National and a third place at the Valspar. Oh yeah, and I’m also on Valimaki.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sami Valimaki (110-1, FanDuel) — It’s never a good sign when everybody is on the same triple-digit longshot, but Valimaki has earned the right to be a community play with his form over the last month. He is absolutely eating with his irons, which has resulted in three consecutive top-18 finishes and may have resulted in another last week if he was playing by himself. In he and Ben Silverman’s first-round best-ball 63 at Zurich, Valimaki was responsible for five of their seven birdies and the lone eagle.
Lack: Taylor Moore (70-1, Bet365) — Taylor Moore is another player with strong Texas ties who already boasts a runner-up finish at Memorial Park. Moore’s combination of elite power off the tee and upside on the greens should play beautifully at TPC Craig Ranch, and I’m expecting a show showing out of the former Valspar Championship winner.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Tour coach: Sam Burns (25-1, Bet365) — I love Burns as a player, but given that he’s missed the cut in three of his past five events, he’s an obvious pick here. It’s not a great sign that he played poorly back in the south on Bermudagrass.
Mayo: Jordan Spieth (18-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I want him to win more than I think he’s going to win. His odds simply don’t match his performance over a six-month rolling period.
Gdula: Sungjae Im (22-1, FanDuel) — Im’s irons just aren’t on par with that of a tournament favorite right now. His short game has carried him to top 12s at the Masters and the RBC Heritage, but he missed the cut last week on the KPGA Tour.
Stewart: Sam Burns (25-1, Bet365) — TPC Craig Ranch asks for a bunch of long approach shots. Sam Burns has been losing significant strokes with his iron game for seven straight starts. The prolific birdie-maker Burns has serious issues finding GIRs. Compound those struggles with an underperforming short game, and I’ll wait a week (or month) before I back Sam in a shootout like this.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jordan Spieth (18-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I’m hopeful we get Spieth in contention for pure entertainment, but given how many long-iron shots are required at TPC Craig Ranch and based on him ranking near the bottom of this field in all the longer proximity buckets in 2025, I’m going to root from the sidelines—and potentially target to play against him in matchups.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jordan Spieth (18-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — As Pat alluded to, the recent and long-term form does not match these odds.
Lack: Sungjae Im (22-1, FanDuel) — While Sungjae Im is coming off an encouraging top-12 finish at the RBC Heritage, his recent approach play continues to be of grave concern. 22-1 is a hefty price to pay on a player that we cannot rely upon to even hit his irons to field average, and his deficiency in this category will largely put him behind the eight ball on such a long iron intensive golf course.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks 2025: Matchups
Tour coach: Jacob Bridgeman (-120) over Seamus Power (Bet365) — I love the work that Bridgeman has done with Scott Hamilton, turning him into a well-rounded golfer capable of winning against a field like this. Not counting a weak opposite field event, Power has missed the cut in every event but one dating back to February.
Mayo: Sami Valimaki (-105) over Nico Echavarria (Coolbet) — It’d be one thing to fear Nico against a ball-striker only, but Valimaki is just doing everything Nico does but much, much better right now.
Gdula: Ryan Gerard (-115) over Eric Cole (FanDuel) — Gerard is longer off the tee and a better iron player and putter over the last 50 rounds. That should be enough to give him the edge over Cole this week.
Stewart: Matt Wallace (-110) over Alex Smalley (Bet365) — Alex Smalley has missed four of his last five cuts. The one event he played on the weekend was Corales (T-63). That’s a secondary tournament played parallel to the RBC Heritage. Matt Wallace was 12th at Corales and finished fourth here last year. Wallace always seems to score on long courses. I’ll take his comp resume (Corales, Grand Reserve, Detroit Golf Club) and putter over Smalley and his recent struggles.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jacob Bridgeman (-120) over Seamus Power (Bet365) — Bridgeman’s shown great consistency in 2025, gaining at least a stroke against the field on a per round basis in 58 percent of his rounds, whereas Power has been inconsistent, doing so in only 27 percent of his rounds. He’s getting a bump based on some positive course history, but I’m happy to target an inconsistent golfer in a matchup like this one.
Powers, Golf Digest: Byeong Hun An (+100) over Sungjae Im (Bet365) — Sungjae Im’s game is being held together by some insane short game of late. That is difficult to sustain, which is why I’ll lean with even money Benny boy here. He’s been far more reliable tee-to-green over the last month-plus.
Lack: Stephan Jaeger (-110) over Will Zalatoris (DraftKings) — I will gladly take Stephan Jaeger over Will Zalatoris in this matchup, as Jaeger possesses both superior course history, comp course history, distance off the tee, and putting upside. Zalatoris is far better suited for more difficult golf courses where par is of higher value, but give me the German in a driver heavy, low missed fairway penalty birdie-fest.
Matchup Results from the Zurich Classic: Tour coach: 1 for 1 (Chappell/Hoge (-110) over Clark/Moore); Powers: 1 for 1 (Poston/Mitchell (-120) over McIntyre/Detry); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Chappell/Hoge (-110) over Clark/Moore); Lack: 1 for 1 (Taylor/Hadwin (-105) over Svennson/Norgaard); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Chappell/Hoge (-110) over Clark/Moore); Gdula: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Tour coach: 10-2-2 (up 6.76 units); Powers: 11-6-0 (up 4.95 units); Hennessey: 10-6-1 (up 3.3 units); Lack: 8-8-1 (down 0.04 units); Stewart: 7-10-0 (down 3.11 units); Gdula: 6-10-1 (down 4.82 units); Mayo: 5-11-0 (down 6.05 units)
CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks 2025: Top 10s
Tour coach: Sungjae Im (+250, FanDuel) — You can bet Sungjae here, as an old bookie used to tell me, like the game has already been played. He’s back to his old ways after a top five at Augusta and an 11th-place at Harbour Town.
Mayo: Alejandro Tosti (+750, Caesars Sportsbook) — You have to understand the deal you’re making when you invest any money on Tosti: The missed short putts are the reason you’re getting him at triple digits. But he’s inching awfully close to a win. Two top 10s with another T-12 in his past three starts at a course where he can surely take advantage of his length off the tee. Tosti missed the cut in his first try at Craig Ranch a year ago yet still gained 6.6 strokes tee-to-green in two rounds. He just happened to lose 6.2 on the greens. With the way he’s ball-striking at the moment, he doesn’t need to gain a ton to contend or even win, just a few should suffice.
Gdula: Taylor Pendrith (+320, FanDuel) — Last year’s winner, Pendrith is the second-best ball-striker in the field over the last 50 rounds, via datagolf, trailing just Scottie Scheffler. The wedge play historically doesn’t matter a ton at TPC Craig Ranch, which is good news for Pendrith. He’s a great course fit.
Stewart: Mackenzie Hughes (+400, DraftKings) — In very quiet fashion, Mackenzie Hughes finished third at Harbour Town. That was a signature field on a very accuracy-biased design. Prior to RBC Heritage, Hughes finished 10th at Houston. We know Hughes always has the putter on point, but the recent ball-striking is what has led to a couple straight top-10 results. Mackenzie can make a lot of birdies and tends to do that on 7,500-plus yard courses where short game and putting definitely give you an edge against the Sunday contenders.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ryan Gerard (+500, FanDuel) — Gerard finished T-2 the last time we were in Texas, which was also a TPC setup (San Antonio), and he’s been incredibly consistent over the past month with good data going back to 2025, so I like his chances of keeping his consistent birdie-making and putting up at this birdie-fest.
Powers, Golf Digest: Stephan Jaeger (+400, FanDuel) — Despite losing strokes with his irons his last two starts here, Jaeger has posted consecutive top-20 finishes. Approach has been one of the strengths of his game this season and it’s actually been off the tee where he’s struggled. If there was ever a place to leave those struggles behind, it’s Craig Ranch.
Lack: Sami Valimaki (+850, FanDuel) — Sami Valimaki has quietly been one of the better approach players in this field, and he has now gained over three strokes on approach in five straight starts. Valimaki also boasts top-five finishes at both Vidanta Vallarta and Memorial Park, my two strongest comparative courses for the week, and his expertise on driver-heavy, low-missed-fairway penalty, long-iron intensive golf courses will pay dividends at TPC Craig Ranch as well.
Top-10 results from the Zurich Classic: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Vilips/Thorbjornsen +360); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Novak/Griffin +250); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Swing coach: 5 for 14 (up 15.8 units); Gdula: 7 for 17 (up 14 units); Mayo: 3 for 16 (up 6.33 units); Lack: 6 for 17 (up 10.5 units); Stewart: 5 for 17 (down 0.65 units); Hennessey: 2 for 17 (down 7.8 units); Powers: 0 for 17 (down 17 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports