Fantasy Advice
CJ Cup Byron Nelson DFS picks 2025: Why I'm predicting a Jordan Spieth win
After the lone team event on the schedule, the PGA Tour returns to a full-field stroke play event at the CJ Cup presented by Byron Nelson. For the fifth consecutive year, the tournament will be hosted at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, which was designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004. Over the past four years, TPC Craig Ranch has played as one of the five easiest golf courses on the PGA Tour, and it is defined by its expansive fairways, large putting surfaces, long par 3s and risk-reward par 5s.
Six new tee boxes have been added this year as the first step in a multi-year renovation project by Lanny Wadkins in an effort to curb scoring and make the golf course play longer and more challenging. While the golf course now plays as one of the longer tracks on the entire PGA Tour, we are scheduled to see a tremendous amount of rain in the forecast during tournament week, which should elicit soft and receptive conditions.
Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming tournament favorite this week, and the two-time Masters champion sits at the top of the DraftKings slate at $13,300, while not a single player is priced above $11,000. Scheffler is a Dallas resident, and he will have the comfort of sleeping in his own bed as he looks to secure his first victory of the 2025 season. Other Dallas residents such as Jordan Spieth and Tom Kim headline the group of challengers this week, and Taylor Pendrith returns to defend his title. Let’s dive into the DraftKings slate.
$10,000 range
Play: Jordan Spieth, $10,500:
If I ultimately decide to take my chances on a Scottie Scheffler fade, Jordan Spieth is an intriguing option up top given his recent off-the-tee performance and improved putting. The three-time major winner has now finished in the top 20 in three straight starts, and he is coming off an 18th-place finish where he gained over a stroke in both ball-striking categories. The Dallas resident has also already recorded two top-10 finishes in three appearances at TPC Craig Ranch.
Fade: Sungjae Im, $10,000:
Jared C. Tilton
While Sungjae Im was a key piece for us in his last event at the RBC Heritage, this is a price hike that gives me reason for pause. Despite a top-12 finish at Harbour Town, Im has still yet to show any signs of life with his irons. While the driver, short game and putter have looked excellent, Im still lost 2.7 strokes on approach. To invest in a player north of $10,000, I need to know that all aspects of his game are firing, and Im’s approach play remains a major weakness.
$9,000 range
Play: Stephan Jaeger, $9,300:
Jared C. Tilton
TPC Craig Ranch is a perfect golf course for Stephan Jaeger, and his history at my two favorite comp courses, Vidanta Vallarta and Memorial Park, is incredibly intriguing. In eight appearances at these two courses, Jaeger has recorded seven top-20 finishes, four top-10s and a victory at the Houston Open. The German is also in some of the better iron form of his career and coming off a performance at Harbour Town where he gained over three strokes on approach.
Fade: Mackenzie Hughes, $9,100:
I always have interest in Mackenzie Hughes on golf courses where players can lift and separate on the strength of their putter, but this is a hefty price tag to swallow on a player with such deficient ball-striking. The Canadian still ranks below field average in recent off the tee and approach performance, and this feels the perfect sell-high spot for a player who is punching well above his weight at the moment.
$8,000 range
Play: Ryo Hisatsune, $8,300:
Jonathan Bachman
Ryo Hisatsune is quietly playing some excellent golf, and he returns to a golf course where he finished in 13th place last year. Hisatsune is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes at the Zurich Classic and RBC Heritage, and he recently recorded a fifth place at the Valero Texas Open. I expect Hisatsune to continue his momentum at another golf course in Texas.
Fade: Tom Kim, $8,700:
While Tom Kim should be fully comfortable in Dallas, TPC Craig Ranch is far from an ideal course fit for the budding star. Kim’s lack of distance off the tee will certainly put him behind the eight ball at the Weiskopf design, and his recent approach form is a cause for concern. Kim has now lost over 4.5 strokes on approach in back-to-back starts, and he is still searching for his first top 10 of the season.
$7,000 range
Play: Alex Smalley, $7,900:
Andy Lyons
Similar to Stephan Jaeger, I am heavily intrigued by Alex Smalley’s performance on other driver-heavy golf courses, long iron intensive golf courses with a low missed fairway penalty. Outside of a 13th-place finish at TPC Craig Ranch last year, Smalley has also recorded multiple top-15 finishes at Vidanta Vallarta and Memorial Park. I expect Smalley to yield a significant advantage this week with his powerful driving.
Fade: Kurt Kitayama, $7,600:
Despite some intriguing ball-striking upside, the results just simply haven’t been there for Kurt Kitayama this year, as he is still searching for his first top-25 finish of the season. Kitayama has now lost strokes on approach in four straight starts, and there are far more trustable players in this price range that are in much more reliable form.
Flier: Hayden Springer, $7,000:
Emilee Chinn
Hayden Springer’s power off the tee and long iron upside should play tremendously well at TPC Craig Ranch this week, and his two best finishes of the year, a sixth at Torrey Pines and a 15th at Memorial Park, have both come on extremely driver heavy and long iron intensive golf courses. Springer is one of my favorite value plays on the slate.
$6,000 range
Play: Joseph Bramlett, $6,700:
Andy Lyons
Things start to get ugly down here quickly, but Joseph Bramlett at least provides some strong course history and a great deal of ball-striking upside given his power off the tee and long iron approach play. Bramlett has recorded two top-20 finishes in four appearances at TPC Craig Ranch, and I certainly believe that he can surprise again on a golf course that is now even going to play longer than in years past.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports