CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024 picks: Our red-hot PGA pro reveals 10 rules for winning bets this week

Opportunity awaits every week on the PGA Tour—opportunity to win and secure your tour card, and an opportunity for sharp bettors to bring home a sizable take. The 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson starts on Thursday. Whether you plan to place your weekend wagers pre-tournament or live in-play throughout the contest, my weekly 10 insights will surely help you cash more tickets.

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For our other bets and our selections for the worst value options for the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, make sure you watch our weekly “Odds Drop” video:

1. The weather is a concern this week. Jason Day won last year in soft conditions and rain will affect play again in 2024. More than six inches of precipitation has fallen in the past 10 days, and more is predicted for all four rounds with Thursday being the worst. If you like making First-Round Leader bets, it looks like the afternoon wave may get a break from the worst weather. Keep an eye on those afternoon tee times for Thomas Detry, Si Woo Kim and Seamus Power.

2. If you are looking at historical data, stop at 2021. TPC Craig Ranch has only been the host venue for three years. Betting knowledge at the Byron Nelson prior to covid is not relevant. The top five players in strokes gained/total at TPC Craig Ranch in this field are: C.T. Pan, Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Marty Dou and K.H. Lee, per RickRunGood.com.

3. The average winning score for those three years is 25-under par. The two winners K.H. Lee (2021, 22) and Jason Day (2023) averaged 27 sub-scores on their way to winning. 2,021 birdies were recorded last year in the tournament, the third most on tour in 2023.

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4. Par 5s are the first key to scoring at TPC Craig Ranch. In 2021, seven of the top 11 on the leaderboard finished in the top 10 for par-5 scoring. In 2022, seven of the top-12 finishers did the same. Last year, the top 11 finished inside the top 15 in par-5 scoring. Take the top par-5 scorers in the field and filter for 550-600 yard holes and Thorbjorn Olesen, Mackenzie Hughes, Alex Noren and Nick Dunlap jump off the page.

5. This is the seventh longest course on tour, and it is already wet. On Thursday it will be even softer and play longer. Add some length to your betting cards. Inside the top 10 for strokes gained off the tee are some interesting betting names: Keith Mitchell, Alejandro Tosti, Cameron Champ, Maverick McNealy and Si Woo Kim.

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6. This is a wide-open field with only five players in the top 40 of the world rankings in the 156-player field. That might mean we’re due for a longshot. Our Golf Digest experts in our betting panel thinks so.

7. One way competitors can separate themselves from the field is with the mid-to-long iron game. Over one third of the approaches at TPC Craig Ranch are hit from over 200 yards. Who has the best proximity in that range? Robert MacIntyre. Near the top of that category, we see Andrew Novak, Olesen and Mitchell again, and Tom Hoge.

8. To find the best sub-par scorers in the field, I looked at the Birdies or Better Percentage and birdies gained leaders. Your top-5 super scoring machines are Matti Schmid, Taylor Pendrith, Hoge, Wesley Bryan (small sample) and Justin Lower.

9. Comp (or comparison) courses can be very helpful on wide open weeks. The best relevant results can be found at Corales, Vidanta Vallarta, Detroit Golf Club, and TPC Deere Run. DA Weibring consulted on Deere Run and Craig Ranch.

10. McKinney is a northern suburb of Dallas, Texas. Three players reside in the Dallas region and will sleep in their own bed this week: Jordan Spieth, Kelly Kraft and 2019 Byron Nelson winner Sung Kang.

Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "The Loop," (above) where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts! 

Interested in what Read the Line and the Golf Digest Expert Panel have picked? Make sure you take a look and see how your leans match up. Super scoring weeks are always fun on the PGA Tour. The window is open for a couple of big ticket wins if you use these details to your advantage.

Read The Line hit another LPGA winner in Los Angeles on Sunday. Hannah Green cashed a +3500 outright bet and +400 top 10 for our readers. If you aren’t already subscribed to our weekly PGA Tour and LPGA newsletter, what are you waiting for? In the last two weeks, we cashed three outrights and over 70-1 in payouts!

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