Betting Analysis
British Open 2024 picks: We're boldly backing Tommy Fleetwood to win a major championship
It's a bittersweet week on the golf calendar. We have the most unique major championship on tap in the British Open, but it's also the final major championship of the year. They come and go so quickly, don't they?
Our expert panel has correctly predicted each of the last two major winners, and we intend on making that three straight this week at Royal Troon. While there is no consensus pick to win, there is one lovable Englishman who two of our guys are on. We'll let you scroll on to find out.
Our betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Royal Troon, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of RunPureSports.com, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2024 British Open
British Open picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Tommy Fleetwood (25-1, FanDuel) — I’m a believer in things lining up. Tommy is back with his caddie Ian Finnis after Ian fought for his life, having open-heart surgery. Sometimes it takes a reality check like this to put everything in perspective, and that can affect Tommy’s mind-set. He’s playing great—and has been trending toward this in a major for a long time. It’d be one of the most popular wins that we have had in this championship, and if it’s not my guy lifting the claret jug, I’d love to see Tommy and Ian do it.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Tony Finau (50-1, BetRivers) — While nothing seems like a greater waste of money than betting Finau to win a major (maybe betting Fleetwood?) the breadcrumbs are all there for a breakthrough victory. Finau has been Scottie-lite all year in the ball-striking department, he was just chipping and putting his way out of tournaments. Since a disappointing finish at the Masters, that has been less of a problem. He’s gained around the greens in five straight while posting positives three starts in a row with his putter. That’s led to three straight top 10s, two in signature events, and a T-3 at the U.S. Open. Plus, Finau’s only missed one cut in seven Open starts (2023) while posting two top 10s, six top 30s, and was T-18 in his Open debut at Troon in 2016. Doesn’t hurt he’s the best wind player in the field either.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Ludvig Aberg (16-1, FanDuel) — Ludvig has shown up well at majors so far other than his PGA Championship MC. That includes a solo second at the Masters and a T-12 at the U.S. Open. Ludvig will need to improve the wedge play long term but is top 15 in off-the-tee, approach, and putting strokes-gained over the last 50 rounds, per datagolf.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Rory McIlroy (+800, BetMGM) — It is time for Rory McIlroy to win another major championship. I am not usually a Rory bettor, but I cannot ignore the trend heading into Royal Troon. Since back-to-back wins before the PGA Championship, McIlroy has five straight top 15 finishes. Most focus on the stunning second place at Pinehurst, but I am looking at the big picture. No player has more top 10s in major championships over the last six years (15). Since winning at Royal Liverpool in 2014, McIlroy has five top 10s in seven starts at the Open alone. It’s time to take Rory and celebrate along with him on Sunday.
Watch the below video for our favorite bets and players we're fading for the 2024 British Open:
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Collin Morikawa (21-1, Bet365) — Trends can be very usual for identifying major winners. Sixteen of the past 23 winners of The Open have won earlier that season. There’s usually a prerequisite on success at past Opens as well. Of course, in 2021, Morikawa bucked that trending by besting Jordan Spieth in 2021 at Royal St. George’s. He’s been as good as you can be without winning. His accuracy and elite iron play combination, plus an improved short game, should lead to another chance at a major. It’s anecdotal, but our Joel Beall said on our Loop podcast this week he’s noticed Morikawa walking around Troon the most confident he’s seen him in recent memory. Morikawa knows this is his kind of major, and I’ll take this winning boost from Bet365.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Tyrrell Hatton (28-1, DraftKings) — Went back and forth on a lot of guys all day, but I’ve ultimately landed on Tyrrell because this number doesn’t sync up with how good he’s played of late. Will he be able to keep his head? No, no he will not, but he’s won plenty of times before with that temper and he’s coming in off a win at LIV Nashville and a third-place finish at LIV Andalucia. He’s already contended at two majors this year, too, and the Open has historically been one of his best. In his last seven Open appearances, he’s finished inside the top 20 four times with two of those coming in the top six. He has the talent to win a major championship and he’s in his prime right now. Time to strike.
Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: Tommy Fleetwood (25-1, FanDuel) — For the first time this year, I’m entering the Tommy Fleetwood market, and while I’m sure it ends in pain, I love this golf course for him. Fleetwood ranks top 20 in this field in driving accuracy, strokes-gained/off-the-tee on courses with a high missed fairway penalty, recent approach play, recent around-the-green play, scrambling in difficult scoring conditions, putting on slow greens, bogey avoidance, and strokes-gained/total on links golf courses. Fleetwood checks the most boxes from a course fit standpoint, and I’m confident he’ll be there come Sunday afternoon in Troon.
Past results: We have another winner, with Stephen Hennessey and Andy Lack correctly predicting Davis Thompson’s maiden victory at 28-1 at the John Deere Classic. That’s Hennessey’s second of the year in the column (Akshay Bhatia 65-1 at the Valero) and Lack’s first. Our anonymous caddie leads the way with four while Christopher Powers and Pat Mayo check in next with two each.
British Open picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Cameron Young (70-1, FanDuel) — Funny enough, this might be his best chance for a win. Cam has proven his game aligns with this championship in only two Open appearances—he lost by one at the Old Course and was in the last group last year at Hoylake. His lowball flight and consistent solid strikes always are going to lead to good golf on links courses.
Mayo: Akshay Bhatia (110-1, FanDuel) — I hit the number while Akshay was contending at Rocket Mortgage, and it’s done nothing but drop since. So, I’ve already won the CLV game. Unfortunately, that doesn’t pay. Honestly, I have no idea how he’ll do on his first trip through major links golf, but his game reminds me enough of Stenson’s (accuracy, great irons, poor short game) that it’s worth a gamble at deep odds. Before his T-2 in Detroit, Bhatia was T-5 at Travelers and T-16 at the U.S. Open.
Gdula: Tom Kim (50-1, FanDuel) — For Kim, 50-1 is a great number. He was T-2 at last year’s Open and has been in the top 30 at all three majors so far this season. He’s actually gained strokes from approach play in eight straight majors. His accuracy should keep him from penalties, and the irons and putting are strong enough to get him into contention and keep him there.
Stewart: Tony Finau (50-1, BetRivers) — Tony Finau has five straight top-18 finishes. Two of those results came in the last two major championships. Over those five events, Finau is gaining an average of nine strokes(!) on the field. That’s a Scheffler/Schauffele amount of strokes. Blend that with an incredible Open Championship record as Tony has six top-30 finishes in seven Open starts, and you start to see it. Here’s one final edge: Finau has gained strokes with his putter in three straight tournaments. Combine all of that and it’s time to capture the claret jug.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (70-1, FanDuel) — I had been wanting to make this bet the past few weeks, and we’ve gotten a serious odds drift early in the week. Then, our caddie sent me his picks from Royal Troon, and he’s even more confident in Young than I was. I love the scuttlebutt about his newfound confidence in the putter, which might be the key to finally unlocking a victory for the 27-year-old.
Powers, Golf Digest: Adam Scott (70-1, FanDuel) — Am I being swayed by one good performance out of the Aussie last week? Damn right. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen Adam Scott seriously contend in a major, to the point where you had to wonder if his time as a serious player was up. But if there were ever a major where a 44-year-old who can’t putt can still hang with the big boys, and possibly beat them, it would be this one. Scott’s career has been a great one but it’s always felt like it’s missing that second major, and you know this is the one he probably still wants the most after that debacle in 2012.
Lack: Corey Conners (70-1, FanDuel) — Even prior to Brian Harman, there has been a long historical precedent of incredibly accurate drivers and great overall approach players in stellar form surprising at the Open. Conners checks all of the boxes I’m looking for this week, and he possesses very similar lead-in form to what we saw from Harman last year. Typically known for his accuracy and approach play, the Canadian appears to have solved his short game woes as well, now gaining strokes around the green in four straight starts. Coming off a 10th-place finish at the Scottish Open where he gained strokes in all four major categories, I expect Conners to be a factor in Scotland once again.
British Open picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Bryson DeChambeau (16-1, BetMGM) — Bryson's obviously in good form, but I do believe it’s a week where bunker play will be extremely important. Even after the miraculous up-and-down at the U.S. Open, bunker play is still a weakness for Bryson.
Mayo: Xander Schauffele (11-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Two majors in a year seems like it’s asking a lot.
Gdula: Jon Rahm (25-1, FanDuel) — Rahm’s game hasn’t translated to majors since he joined the LIV Tour, and while he’s got good Open history and solid results on LIV of late, I’d rather look to other names at the top of the board this week.
Stewart: Viktor Hovland (28-1, DraftKings) — Reigning FedEx Cup Champion Viktor Hovland is trying to get better. Last week at the Renaissance Club, Viktor gained five strokes on the field with his flat stick. The problem is he lost three strokes tee-to-green. Since when has Hovland not been a top-10 ball-striker? Viktor’s short-game search is well-documented. That endless pursuit has placed more pressure on his full-swing shots. Troon is a tough test even without the elements. It’s impossible to compete in a major losing two strokes on average per start around the greens. Take a break on Viktor until he can get back to some venues that provide a more straightforward short-game setting.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Bryson DeChambeau (16-1, BetMGM) — If Bryson can fully commit to bunting it off the tee and winning on the ultimate non-bombers course, I’m willing to take this one on the chin. Bryson’s been beyond great in the majors in 2024, but Troon will take the driver out of his hands on most par 4s.
Powers, Golf Digest: Robert MacIntyre (30-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I understand he just won, but this is a crazy price. Who is seriously betting this? Especially after he admitted he was going to be extremely hungover this week. At 27, he can still bounce back from those, but it’s still a tall ask to go back-to-back, especially coming off the emotional high of what was the biggest win of his life.
Lack: Bryson DeChambeau (16-1, BetMGM) — I have the utmost respect for the way Bryson DeChambeau is playing right now, but it’s just incredibly difficult to win back-to-back majors. Furthermore, the Open Championship appears the one tournament that Bryson has been yet to crack, and even his top-10 finish at St. Andrews came on a golf course that has very little in common with Troon. Bryson will not be able to overpower this golf course with his driver, and I’m not convinced he’ll have the patience to commit to a more conservative strategy.
British Open picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Tiger Woods (-125) over Phil Mickelson (DraftKings) — I got to see a decent bit of a practice round early this week with Tiger, and his game looked really good. The golf course is flat and easy to walk, and his body looks as good as it has all year. I would expect Tiger to make the cut and finish top 25 this week.
Mayo: Brooks Koepka (+190) over Collin Morikawa (DraftKings) — Look, I think Morikawa is going to beat Brooks too. But is he more than 2x more likely? Too big of a price.
Gdula: Russell Henley (-120) over Max Homa (FanDuel) — Henley and Homa are trending in different directions. Despite tepid Open form, Henley plays majors well and has finished T-38, T-23 and T-7 at the big events this season.
Stewart: Brian Harman (-110) over Jordan Spieth (Bet365) — I’m amazed at this point that Jordan Spieth has not figured something out. Spieth has one top 10 in the past five months. He missed the cut at the Scottish Open and looked visibly frustrated. The approach game continues to haunt him while the putter has all but evaporated. Brian Harman returns as the Champion Golfer of the Year. Tied 21st at the Scottish Open, Brian continues to strike the ball incredibly well. In his past five starts, Harman has gained an average of four and half strokes on the field tee-to-green. The defending champion is better suited to handle Royal Troon’s test over the struggling Spieth.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Collin Morikawa (-120) over Bryson DeChambeau (Bet365) — My winner against my fade, this is a slam-dunk for me. Read above for my analysis!
Powers, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (+105) over Hideki Matsuyama (DraftKings) — These two have been major stalwarts in the last five or six years. One thing we know is they’ll both make the cut and be hanging near the top of the leader board, so we’ll be sweating this one until Sunday. I have to lean with Lowry, who is well-rested having taken some time off since a T-9 at the Travelers while Matsuyama enters off a missed cut at the Scottish where he lost nearly 2.5 strokes with the putter.
Lack: Patrick Cantlay (-120) over Cameron Smith (DraftKings) — Patrick Cantlay really impressed me at the U.S. Open, and we finally got to see him get some serious reps in contention of a major. Cantlay backed up his strong U.S. Open with another top-five finish at the Travelers Championship, and his ball-striking is trending in the right direction. Cameron Smith on the other hand, continues to have major questions about his driving ability, and Royal Troon is a golf course that severely penalizes wide misses. Cantlay’s ability to drive the ball in play grants him a major advantage over Smith this week.
Matchup Results from the Genesis Scottish Open: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Rai (-145) over McCarthy); Powers: 1 for 1 (Kitayama (-115) over Zalatoris); Lack: PUSH (Aberg (-110) over Morikawa); Gdula: PUSH (Conners (-105) over Clark); Mayo: 0 for 1; Caddie: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 18-8-2 (up 7.82 units); Mayo: 17-10-1 (up 6.61 units); Caddie: 17-10-0 (up 5.13 units); Hennessey: 15-9-4 (up 4.57 units); Gdula: 14-11-3 (up 1.35 units); Powers: 13-12-2 (up 0.69 units); Stewart: 12-15-1 (down 4.21 units)
British Open picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Sahith Theegala (+500, FanDuel) — The simple truth is this guy is solid throughout the bag. Sahith has the ability to manipulate height easily and has a world-class short game. I believe his abilities will fit links golf extremely well.
Mayo: Louis Oosthuizen (+500, DraftKings) — The 2010 Champion Golfer of the Year is having one of the best years of his career, and no one has noticed. He’s gone 1st/1st/2nd in his last three non-LIV starts while posting top 10s in over half his LIV starts in 2024. Including a pair of runners-up. Despite all that, this is Louis’ only Major appearance this year. Why he declined a PGA Championship invite, I do not know. But if he wants to cap off a great season, and get into next year’s biggest events, a top-end finish at Troon is necessary.
Gdula: Tommy Fleetwood (+230, FanDuel) — Fleetwood is great at Opens (T-12, second, T-33, T-4, and T-10 in his last five) and enters with an all-around game that should have his name near the top of the board come Sunday.
Stewart: Bryson DeChambeau (+190, FanDuel) — Sixth at the Masters, runner-up at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open winner, DeChambeau is one of the top two or three most talented golfers in this field. Although he only has one top 10 in six Open Championship starts, I believe we’re looking at a different golfer these days. I’m especially interested in how DeChambeau dismantled Augusta National and Valhalla in soft conditions. He will be facing similarly receptive surfaces this week. Take the 10 places and watch Bryson be the only major golfer to return four straight top 10s in 2024.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (+400, BetRivers) — Troon feels like a similar test to Royal Portrush, demanding accuracy and iron prowess. Lowry fits the trend of winning in the calendar year (albeit the team event with Rory), past Open success and strong finishes coming in (ninth at Travelers, 19th at U.S. Open and sixth at the PGA).
Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Cantlay (+360, DraftKings) — After a confusing stretch between Riviera and the Memorial Tournament, Cantlay has regained his form and posted consecutive top 10s in the U.S. Open and the Travelers Championship. And yet he’s still being priced in this mid-tier while his good buddy Xander remains one of the three favorites. If he continues to strike it, and putt it, like he did at Pinehurst and River Highlands, he’ll be there late on Sunday.
Lack: Collin Morikawa (+160, DraftKings) — Similar to Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa is an elite approach player and an incredibly accurate driver of the ball who is currently chipping and putting well above his baseline. Morikawa has gained over a stroke around the greens in six straight starts, and strokes putting in four straight starts. This is the most well-rounded statistical profile we have ever seen out of Morikawa, and I would be fairly surprised if he doesn’t play a major factor in this tournament.
Top-10 results from the Genesis Scottish Open: Powers: 1 for 1 (Victor Perez +850); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Aaron Rai (+450); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 10 for 28 (up 67.35 units); Mayo: 5 for 28 (down 3 units); Powers: 5 for 28 (down 3.6 units); Gdula: 5 for 28 (down 3.9 units); Caddie: 5 for 27 (down 5.05 units); Lack: 5 for 28 (down 10.55 units); Stewart: 4 for 28 (down 14.82 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also the head of golf content for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
