After another electric morning at the Open Championship, the afternoon looked like it would be a dud. Then Rory McIlroy began charging up the leader board, nearly making one of the most remarkable turnarounds we've ever seen and injecting some life into the Royal Portrush crowd. His six-under 65 wound up being one shot short of the cut line, a gut punch for McIlroy backers hoping he'd have two more rounds to pull off a miracle.
But for those who bet on the favorite in McIlroy, don't fret, there are still 36 holes to play and plenty more golf to be bet on. As of now, oddsmakers are high on Tommy Fleetwood, who is the current favorite at +550 on DraftKings and sits just one off the lead of Shane Lowry and J.B. Holmes. Lowry is the second favorite at +600, while Brooks Koepka checks in as the third favorite at +650 and Justin Rose as the fourth favorite at +750. Holmes, the co-leader, is +1400, which is a little bit more love than he got yesterday, when he was listed at +3300 despite having the solo lead. There's plenty of intriguing names as you make your way down the board, with lurkers like Jordan Spieth (+1600), Dustin Johnson (+2200) and Xander Schauffele (+3300).
Saturday promises to be action-packed, especially if you have a little action on it yourself. We asked our group of expert handicappers, including Columbia University senior lecturer and Ph.D. Lou Riccio, who uses predictive analysis and modeling to forecast winners in golf; Justin Bailey from the Action Network; DraftKings' Reid Fowler and FanShare Sports' Lee Alldrick for their insights and analysis heading into the final two rounds.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Outright winner: Dustin Johnson (22-1) — Even at three under and five shots back, my model has Johnson at 14-1, making this 22-1 number one of the more enticing ones on the board. Five shots can easily be made up in an Open Championship, especially if the weather picks up. It looks like it will on Sunday, so if DJ can go out and post a number on Saturday, he could thrust himself back into single-digit odds range. Get him at 22-1 while you can and hope he puts on another ball-striking clinic like he did on the weekend at the U.S. Open, where if he just made a few putts he would have been right in the mix. —Dr. Lou Riccio, Columbia University senior lecturer
Outright winner: Jon Rahm (14-1) —I’m still staying with Rahm as my in-play pick to win. He shot a 70 today despite giving 3 shots to the field on the birdieable par-5 second and hit 88.89 percent of his greens in regulation. His post-round interview is exactly what you want to hear from someone challenging for the championship: "I’m confident, I’m playing well...I’ve been hitting the ball really well." He came from almost exactly the same position when winning the Irish Open a few weeks back, powering through the field over the weekend. —Lee Alldrick, FanShare Sports
Outright winner: Xander Schauffele (33-1) — There isn't a better value play on the board, in my opinion, than the X-Man at this number. He's only finished T-6 or better in half the majors he's played in his career, two of those coming this year, a T-2 the Masters and a T-3 at the U.S. Open. At three under, he's one big Saturday move away from being in one of the final few groups, and, as mentioned above, Sunday looks like it's going to be real-deal Open Championship weather. All hell could break loose, meaning anyone within four or five shots will have a shot at the jug. There's no guy I'd rather have at 33-1 if that happens than Xander, who can't keep knocking on the door and walking away empty-handed much longer. Throw up the X Dez Bryant-style with me people. — Christopher Powers, Golf Digest
Outright winner: Patrick Cantlay (90-1) —Other than Rahm (14-1), no one was playing better golf leading up to the Open than Cantlay with no worse than a 21st (US Open) in his last six starts with two top-threes (PGA Championship, RBC Heritage) and a win at Memorial back in June. We’ve seen him have success in tough tournaments, especially on the weekends with his golf being nothing short of stellar. Over his last seven starts, on Saturday and Sunday, Cantlay ranks first in strokes gained on par fours and par fives, first in birdie or better gained, and first in bogey avoidance. He’s hitting over 72 percent of his greens in regulation and putting close to the field average this week, but is struggling to find the fairway only converting 46.43 percent in regulation. Cantlay’s immense value and upside this weekend should be worth some wayward tee shots, especially as one of the better ball strikers on tour this season. — —Reid Fowler, DraftKings
Day 3 matchup: Matt Kuchar (-110) over Jordan Spieth — The forecast is looking fairly windy on Saturday with winds projected in the 14-16 mph range and gusts coming in at 20-24 mph. If the wind gets nasty, I prefer Kuchar. Per Fantasy National, Kuchar has historically averaged 1.80 strokes gained in strong winds while Spieth is sitting at just 0.43 average strokes gained. — Justin Bailey, Action Network
Day 3 matchup: Bubba Watson (+138) over Graeme McDowell — Yes, McDowell will have the home crowd fully behind him, but my model gives Watson more than a full-stroke edge over G-Mac in Round 3. At plus odds, it's hard to pass up, and I fully expect Watson to come out firing. There are some great birdie opportunities early in the round at Royal Portrush for aggressive players like Bubba. If he can pick up a few early, I like my chances in this matchup. —Riccio
Top-10 finish: Patrick Reed (+275) — I like the 3-1 available around Patrick Reed to finish top 10. He was fancied coming into the event and hasn’t disappointed so far. He hit 77.78-percent of his greens in regulation today but more exciting was his 1.56 putts per green in regulation. It’s been his uptick in putting of late that has yielded the recent good results. Four top 32 finishes in a row including a fifth just two events back shows the World No. 25 is back to his best. —Alldrick
Top-five finish: Tyrrell Hatton (+800) — By Tyrrell Hatton standards, the Englishman has somewhat kept his emotions in check so far this week (no clubs throws … yet). He'll never not show you how he feels, but as long as he can avoid the massive meltdown this weekend I think he'll contend for his first major victory. People forget he has done just that in recent years, finishing inside the top 10 four times in majors since 2016, one of which was a T-5 in the 2016 Open at Royal Troon. The key to his week so far has been getting off to a great start, and if he does the same tomorrow he'll quickly vault to the top of the leader board. — Powers
British Open live odds 2019:
Tommy Fleetwood 11-2
Shane Lowry 6-1
Brooks Koepka 13-2
Justin Rose 15-2
J.B. Holmes 14-1
Jon Rahm 14-1
Lee Westwood 14-1
Jordan Spieth 16-1
Dustin Johnson 22-1
Tony Finau 33-1
Dylan Frittelli 33-1
Matt Kuchar 33-1
Xander Schauffele 33-1
Cameron Smith 33-1
Henrik Stenson 33-1
Rickie Fowler 40-1
Justin Harding 40-1
Andrew Putnam 40-1
Patrick Reed 40-1
Erik van Rooyen 50-1
Webb Simpson 55-1
Tyrrell Hatton 66-1
Patrick Cantlay 90-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 90-1
Lucas Bjerregaard 100-1
Byeong Hun An 100-1
Alexander Noren 100-1
Justin Thomas 100-1
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