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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2024: Will one of the elites finally get it done?

January 31, 2024
LA JOLLA, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 27: Max Homa of the United States walks to the fourth green during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines South Course on January 27, 2024 in La Jolla, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

For the first time in a long time, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has a truly elite field, perhaps the most elite it's ever had. As it should. One of the sport's most iconic venues has been missing some serious star power over the last few years.

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That's not the case this week thanks to the Pro-Am's signature event status. Nineteen of the top 21 players in the Official World Golf Ranking are set to do battle on the Monterey Peninsula, which should, theoretically, lead to a winner coming from that elite group. 2024 has been the year of the longshot, though. We'll see if that continues.

Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. 

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions

Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Justin Thomas (25-1, FanDuel) — Obviously he has been back on his regular form over the last few months. A bunch of top finishes show that all the work he’s been doing is paying off. I always feel like sometimes on greens that are so unpredictable and with weather that is going to be challenging, that fits right into Justin breaking out and winning again.

Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Byeong Hun An (45-1, DraftKings) — If not now, when? An’s opened the year with consecutive top-four finishes, loves himself a short course, has one of the world’s premier short games and gained strokes putting in his career starts at Pebble Beach. He finished T-37 in his Pro-Am debut last year, gaining 0.45 strokes between driving and irons in his two rounds. He’s averaging more than that per round just off the tee over his past 20 starts.

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Collin Morikawa (20-1, FanDuel) — Morikawa’s putter can play him out of a win, but his irons and driving accuracy should do wonders for him at this two-course setup. He’s a golfer I tend to fade a lot, but the whole package is trending up for Morikawa entering Pebble.

Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Max Homa (18-1, BetMGM) — Max Homa has eight straight top-15 finishes on tour dating back to last July. Four of Homa’s six wins on the PGA Tour have been in his home state of California. The popular alumnus of nearby University of California at Berkeley knows the power of aligning great play and a comfortable venue. Max is gaining six strokes against the field in his last 10 starts and has three straight top-15 finishes at the AT&T. Sound good? Then tail me in picking him to win on Monterey in a monsoon this weekend.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Max Homa (18-1, BetMGM) — Homa’s incredible stretch of golf needs more attention: He hasn’t finished outside the top 15 since the Scottish Open last July. That’s insane. Plus, he has top-15 finishes in his three most recent starts at Pebble, too. Time to dial up the California King.

Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Collin Morikawa (20-1, FanDuel) — Feels like everybody (except Brandon) is turning their back on this guy because he got got by the South Course. It happens. He’s still been his usual dominant self with his irons and just had one bad round off the tee last Friday that cost him the weekend. Driver isn’t required on a number of holes this week and his iron advantage will only be heightened with Pebble’s tiny greens. Just don’t lose a million strokes putting and we’ll have a shot on Sunday.

Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: Viktor Hovland (12-1, FanDuel) — The Prince of Pebble returns to the site of his U.S. Amateur win and his low-amateur finish at the 2019 U.S. Open. Unlike other top-priced players such as Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas, Hovland has returned on multiple occasions to take on Pebble Beach under a regular PGA Tour setup and is one of the few players in this field to succeed on this golf course under dramatically different conditions. Whatever the weather and setup have in store for us this week, I feel comfortable going to battle with Hovland.

Past results: As successful as last season was for this panel, it’s time to turn the page to 2024, when we plan on cashing just as many, if not more, outright winners. We’re also pleased to welcome our newest expert picker, Keith Stewart of Read The Line, to the panel. Keith replaces the great Rick Gehman, who we’ll miss dearly. Good luck to all. Let’s have a year.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win

Caddie: Nicolai Hojgaard (50-1, FanDuel) — I’m honestly a little shocked about these odds being so high. Coming off a second place finish last week on similar greens and similar soft conditions. He is obviously not afraid to win, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does this week.

Mayo: Kurt Kitayama (110-1, DraftKings) — Only Kurt and those who bet him a year ago at Pebble remember he was one stroke off Rose’s lead entering the final round before a Monday 76 sunk him on the leaderboard. He does all his best work on coastal courses, and is actually on an excellent ball-striking run to start the year, gaining over two strokes ball-striking over his first two starts. His problem is the putter, primarily his lag putting. He hasn’t gained strokes on the green since last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge. That was in May. Fortunately, the course with the smallest greens on tour can assist with fewer three-putts.

Gdula: J.T. Poston (45-1, FanDuel) — Poston leads the field in combined strokes-gained/approach, around-the-green, and putting over the past 50 rounds, via datagolf. In a week where off-the-tee play isn’t the most vital, that makes him an interesting long shot.

Stewart: Denny McCarthy (90-1, FanDuel) — The winner of the 2024 signature AT&T Pro-am will be a tough mudder. Denny McCarthy has a fine resume at Pebble Beach. In his last two starts on the Monterey Peninsula, he finished 12th and fourth. McCarthy excels on layouts where the driver is kept in the bag and scoring from short range really separates. A top-five putter in the world, Denny will make more five-to-10 foot putts than the competition. The last time he played coastal golf, he finished fifth at the RSM Classic. McCarthy in tough conditions can definitely keep clear of the mud and make a run at this signature title much like he did last year at The Memorial.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Denny McCarthy (90-1, FanDuel) — Denny is built for Pebble. He contended last year (T-4) and finished 12th in 2022. This can turn into the kind of wedge/putting fest that’s right up his alley. Denny’s going to bag a big-time event this year—we saw at the Memorial that he’s got the moxie in the big moments, and I don’t think this will be too big for him.

Powers, Golf Digest: Chris Kirk (90-1, FanDuel) — Kirk’s got some sneaky-solid history at Pebble, which should come as no surprise given his SG/approach prowess. He also just beat an “elite” field at Sentry, so it’s not like he’ll be running scared from Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy. If not for a brutal putting and chipping performance at Sony, he very well may have gone back-to-back, too (finished 18th). I don’t see his heater slowing down any time soon.

Lack: Sahith Theegala (80-1, FanDuel) — This is simply too appetizing of a number to pass up on Sahith Theegala at this golf course. The Pepperdine standout’s success on the West Coast is well-documented. Just a few months ago, he won the Fortinet Championship at Silverado, a wedge-heavy course that requires less than driver off the tee, like Pebble. I expect him to add to his immaculate California track record this week.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2024: Players We’re Fading

Caddie: Sungjae Im (40-1, FanDuel) — This one was difficult this week. I feel like so many. The top players are on form and with it being a small field, a lot of them will have a chance to win. I picked him only because I believe a struggling attitude can at times be challenging with the horrible conditions that the players will face.

Mayo: Rory McIlroy (+900, DraftKings) — On fire to begin 2024 with a gold and silver through two starts in the Middle East, but forcing Rory to lay back with the driver is taking away his greatest advantage.

Gdula: Patrick Cantlay (18-1, FanDuel) — Cantlay usually plays Pebble Beach well, so that’s a bit of a concern with fading him, but it’s a loaded list at the top and someone must get picked here. The irons and putter the past two starts have been poor for Cantlay, so I’ll look elsewhere among the favorites this week.

Stewart: Collin Morikawa (20-1, FanDuel) — We saw a weak cut shot from Collin Morikawa multiple times last week at Torrey Pines. Collin made a coaching change this Fall and those come with adjustments Throw that ball flight into a stormy week on the Monterey coast and Morikawa will make some high numbers. Fading any favorite in a no-cut event seems like an odd thing to do, but while Morikawa is working, I’ll write my tickets elsewhere.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (+900, DraftKings) — This will be Irish-type weather on the weekend, but I would prefer him at any of the courses coming up on the schedule rather than Pebble.

Powers, Golf Digest: Scottie Scheffler (+750, Caesars Sportsbook) — His results page is legitimately astounding to look at, but it’s just impossible to ignore those putting numbers. He’ll probably top 10 for the billionth time but he just can’t be trusted at single-digit odds until he turns it around on the greens.

Lack: Rory McIlroy (+750, Bet365) — I’m as big of a Rory McIlroy fan as it gets, but this is not the golf course that we want to deploy him at. Pebble Beach largely devalues McIlroy’s greatest asset: elite driving ability. Instead, Pebble emphasizes wedge play and putting inside 15 feet, neither which are the strongest aspects of the four-time major winner’s game. I’ll gladly take a wait-and-see approach with McIlroy on a course he has not seen since the 2019 U.S. Open.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2024: Matchups

Caddie: Cameron Young (+100) over Sam Burns (DraftKings) — I think this has less to do with the golf course than it does the weather. Cam has always played well in bad weather as you can tell from his British Open finishes. He’s another guy that doesn’t have much face rotation, which can really prove beneficial in bad weather.

Mayo: Beau Hossler (-110) over Nicolai Hojgaard (DraftKings) — While Hossler’s outright winning odds are hilariously low for a guy who has never won, in a single H2H, I like targeting him vs a Pebble rookie who relies, like Rory, on bombing off the tee. Force that skill out his hands and it’ll be interesting to see how the Dane holds up.

Gdula: Scottie Scheffler (-120) over Rory McIlroy (FanDuel) — The two co-favorites are co-favorites for a reason, but it’s Scheffler who just has an edge everywhere but putting, and it’s not like that’s Rory’s forte either. Scottie’s putting from five-to-15 feet is trending up, too.

Stewart: Jordan Spieth (+120) over Collin Morikawa (DraftKings) — Since 2006, every winner of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am has finished 21st or better prior to winning. Collin Morikawa has not played Pebble in February. Jordan Spieth has 11 starts here, six top 10s and a win. When the weather gets ugly this week, rely on Spieth’s superior short game to return plus odds at Pebble Beach.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (-111) over Sungjae Im (Bet365) — I’m following our caddie’s lead here and his point on face rotation in the weather. Sungjae seems like someone whose swing is very timing-based, so I’ll take the caddie’s advice there on fading him, too.

Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (-110) over Ludvig Aberg (DraftKings) — Aberg’s distance advantage is mitigated this week and I love backing a trending JT on a week where weather appears like it will be a huge factor.

Lack: Matt Fitzpatrick (+100) over Sungjae Im (DraftKings) — Similar to Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick is one of the few players in this field to have experienced success at Pebble Beach in both U.S. Open conditions and standard PGA Tour conditions. Coming off an October win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship where it rained for four days straight, I have zero concerns about the former U.S. Open winner in dodgy weather conditions. Im, on the other hand, has only one appearance at Pebble Beach, a missed cut in 2019, and is coming off a disappointing missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he lost strokes on approach.

Matchup Results from the Farmers Insurance Open: Gdula: 1 for 1 (M. Kim (-110) over Horschel); Powers: 1 for 1 (Bradley (-120) over Cole); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Rodgers (+100) over Bezuidenhout); Lack: 1 for 1 (Day (-120) over Cole); Hennessey: PUSH (Straka (+115) over Cole); Caddie: VOID (Meronk WD); Stewart: 0 for 1

Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Gdula: 3-0-1 (up 2.69 units); Hennessey: 3-0-1 (up 2.48 units); Powers: 3-1-0 (up 1.97 units); Mayo: 3-1-0 (up 1.96 units); Caddie: 2-1-0 (up 0.66 units); Stewart: 2-2-0 (down 0.14 units); Lack 2-2-0 (down 0.26 units);

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2024: Top 10s

Caddie: Tony Finau (+320, DraftKings) — Another guy who played great last week and is hitting the ball well. Has a great ability to compress the ball in cold. Rainy conditions will always be a benefit for Finau. Also, the fact that he plays with a square-faced cut I think will bid him well.

Mayo: Nick Taylor (+900, DraftKings) — The Canadian has acclimated himself quite well around Pebble Beach in his career. Outside of his 2020 win, Taylor’s picked up top 20s the last two seasons as well. He blew it coming home at the AMEX to miss the cut but flashed enough approach upside at Sony to warrant another look down the board again at a happy place.

Gdula: Tommy Fleetwood (+280, FanDuel) — Fleetwood is off to a strong start in January with a win at the Dubai Invitational and a T-14 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic. The irons are trending up big time lately.

Stewart: Nicolai Hojgaard (+400, DraftKings) — I was surprised to witness what a great wedge player Nicolai Hojgaard was. The talented twin has so much ball speed it is insane. After witnessing his scoring-iron acumen and putting stroke live, I’m sold. Runner-up last week at Torrey Pines, Hojgaard has shown he can handle himself with three DP World Tour wins including the DP World Tour championship back in November.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Brendon Todd (+700, FanDuel) — It’s easy to make a compelling case for Todd this week. I know this year’s field is way more stacked, but he was runner-up at Pebble last year. And he’s got great stats at both coastal courses and shorter layouts.

Powers, Golf Digest: Brandon Wu (+1200, DraftKings) — People forget Wu finished runner-up here last year, albeit against a much different field. Still, he’s gained with his irons in six consecutive starts and is just a few weeks removed from a solid top-20 finish at the Sony Open.

Lack: Patrick Cantlay (+190, DraftKings) — I would venture to say that we are getting a bit of a discount on Patrick Cantlay this week coming off back-to-back disappointing weekends at The American Express and Farmers Insurance Open. Cantlay now returns to a familiar spot where he has recorded five top 25s in seven appearances, including a third and a fourth in his last two appearances.

Top-10 results from the Farmers Insurance Open: Everybody: 0 for 1

Top-10 results from this season: Gdula: 2 for 4 (up 6.5 units); Hennessey: 1 for 4 (up 1.5 units); Powers: 1 for 4 (down 1.1 units); Caddie: 0 for 4 (down 4 units); Mayo: 0 for 4 (down 4 units); Stewart: 0 for 4 (down 4 units); Lack: 0 for 4 (down 4 units)

About our experts

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME. 

Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13. 

Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.

Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also the head of golf content for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports