A way too early look at who makes the 2025 U.S. Ryder Cup team

MONTREAL — For fans of team match-play golf, it's always a little sad when an event like the Presidents Cup comes to an end. What better way, then, to stifle that sadness—or pretend it doesn't exist—than turning our attention immediately to the next one?

With that in mind, before the body of the 2024 Presidents Cup is even cold, let's look forward to the 2025 Ryder Cup at Bethpage, and start a way-too-early prognostication of who should (and could) make the American team.

For this analysis, we're going to divide it into tiers. Keep in mind that the Ryder Cup points standings you see now are based on just five events from the past year—the majors and the Players. It will fluctuate A LOT in 2025, with far more points at stake, before the top six at the end of the qualifying period earn their automatic spots. When it's over, we'll put our money where our mouth is and take a guess at the 12 who will be wearing stars and stripes on Long Island.

The Obvious Tier

They're making the team unless they get hit by a train

Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa

These guys are your stalwarts. Scheffler and Schauffele are basically locks to make the team after their major performance, and both were great in Montreal. Cantlay once again showed why he might be the American Ian Poulter, making big putt after big putt, highlighted by the magic birdie in the dark on 18 to essentially bury the Internationals Saturday night. And Morikawa, while not as overtly spectacular, just keeps winning matches at these events and has proven he can pair with almost anyone. There is no argument, in any universe, to leave any of these four at home if they're healthy.

The Nearly Certain Tier

Not quite a lock, but you'd be shocked not to see him

Bryson DeChambeau

DeChambeau is the only other player besides Scheffler and Schauffele who earned enough points from 2024 (by winning a major) to separate himself from the pack in a way that might be decisive. Since he's playing on the LIV Tour, he won't have as many chances as other players to earn points in 2025, and in theory you could see him struggling and dropping from the top six. But smart money today says he not only makes the team, but probably makes it easy for Captain Keegan Bradley by qualifying on his own.

The "Stock Rising in a Big Way" Tier

The Montreal beneficiary

Russell Henley

Remember how Scottie Scheffler couldn't win a pairs match in six tries in Rome at the 2023 Ryder Cup and Charlotte at the 2022 Presidents Cup, and it was starting to become a puzzle for U.S. captains? Well, now Henley went 2-1 with him, seemed to gel on a personal level, and actually carried the World No. 1 in some critical moments. He's the Scheffler Whisperer, and if he can just play solid and stay near the top 15 of the rankings, he looks like a tremendous captain's pick.

The "We Want You, but You Have to Earn It" Tier

An inside track, but far from locks

Justin Thomas, Max Homa

At the Rome Ryder Cup, you saw Thomas benefit from his rich match-play history to earn a pick despite being off form for most of the year and Homa earned the same privilege this time around at the Montreal Presidents Cup. In short, these guys are gamers with a lot of victories to their credit, good leaders in the locker room and a net positive for any team. The thing is, with so much attention paid to captain's picks, and with some of that attention negative in Thomas' case, they still have to earn it; rightly or wrongly, gone is the era when you can finish 20th in the standings and still expect a bail-out. Both have to up their games in 2024.

The "Yeah, Probably, If You Don't Collapse" Tier

They're starting to look like regulars here

Sam Burns, Tony Finau

The irony with Burns is that his strokes-gained numbers weren't really that good at Royal Montreal; he benefited from some really strong partners and some opportunistic clutch play to go 3-0 before Sunday singles. Similarly, Finau finished the pairs sessions 2-1 despite even worse numbers than Burns. They didn't exactly light it up in Canada but they got wins, and they're known commodities. These are the guys where someone like Bradley will think he knows what he's getting, and that they know how to put points on the board. When it comes time to make tough decisions, that counts for a lot.

The "Extremely Mediocre Results Man" Tier

We actually aren't sure what to make of this

Wyndham Clark

Other than taunting Si Woo Kim and earning the wrath of Ben An, it's hard to think anything very memorable from Clark's 1-2 showing at Royal Montreal (pre-singles) or his 1-1-1 record in Rome. He's quite capable of making the next Ryder Cup on points alone, but if he fades a little and needs a captain's pick, it's hard to dig up much evidence in either direction from what he's achieved so far. Should he hover around that No. 12 spot, it'll likely come down to how well he fits the course.

The "You Better Light up the Majors" LIV Tier

There's one way for them to make the team

Brooks Koepka (especially) but also everyone else on LIV

DeChambeau has a leg up on his LIV colleagues based on winning at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, and that makes it tough for everyone else in a couple ways. First, he's potentially occupying a spot in the top six. Second, if Bradley feels he can placate the LIV faithful by taking just one guy, he has him in DeChambeau, who doubles as a pretty popular figure in the larger golf world. That means Koepka and all his American colleagues in LIV need to do something special in the majors—either win one or finish top five in a bunch—to force their way into the discussion and on the team. Barring a surprise reunification, that's their only time to earn points and shine. And it goes without saying that for some of them, the degree of difficulty becomes so much higher if they're not actually qualified for all the majors.

The "What the Hell is Happening?" Tier

Don't ask us

Keegan Bradley

Is he a potential player? Is he 100 percent the captain? Why is he the captain when he could make the team again? What the hell is even going on? We have no clue.

The "Stock Declining" Tier

The Montreal stumblers

Brian Harman, Sahith Theegala

Harman was the worst player on either team by strokes gained, and it feels like his time on these teams, fueled by his 2023 Open Championship win and his good showing at the Players this year, could be coming to an end. Put it this way—if he can't earn his way on, this past week in Montreal was not a good audition for future captain's picks. Theegala is younger and seems more likely to post some wins in 2025, but was also really rough in his two pairs outings at Royal Montreal and clearly lost the confidence of Furyk. It's not a death sentence, but it's not how you want to come out of the gate as a rookie, and it's not what you want on a captain's mind come decision time.

The "We Love You, But This Might Be Over" Tier

What happened to our dreams?

Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler

Is Spieth just a "normal" player now? Will he recover quickly from his wrist injury, or will it make things worse? Is the elite player we once knew and loved gone from all but memory? And what happened to Rickie after he became elite again?? We thought we had you back! Nothing is as sad as time passing.

The "I Want So Badly to Believe but I'm So Afraid to Hurt Again" Tier

Let the man cook!

Billy Horschel

He's sixth in the standings now, which is pretty much meaningless. Even though he finally made a Presidents Cup team in Charlotte, he continues to comes as close as possible to making teams only to fall just short at the end. It's not like the team needs him, but after all those years of being right on the cusp, this dude deserves it. Like always, though, he's got to earn it with his play.

• • •

Now, you can consider everyone else—from Harris English to Mav McNealy to Cam Young to whoever—your "Other" tier. For them, it's a pretty simple formula of having to play your way in.

OK, so as promised, here is an incredibly premature guess at who will make the team. This is bound to be wrong, but it's never too early to start talking Ryder Cup:

1. Scottie Scheffler
   2. Xander Schauffele
   3. Patrick Cantlay
   4. Collin Morikawa
   5. Bryson DeChambeau
   6. Sam Burns
   7. Tony Finau
   8. Russell Henley
   9. Justin Thomas
   10. Max Homa
   11. Billy Horschel
   12. Wyndham Clark