Betting Analysis
World Wide Technology Championship picks 2024: This former major champ may ball-strike his way to a win
After a much-needed one-week break, the PGA Tour returns this week with the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico. How can we put this lightly? This field is ... not the best field we've ever seen.
That makes it much harder to find value at the top of the board, though our experts did their best to below.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of El Cardonal, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Golf Podcast, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 World Wide Technology Championship.
World Wide Technology Championship picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Lucas Glover (30-1, FanDuel) — Glover’s on a tear again, and I love his chances on this kind of course where he can let his approach play and his putter do the talking.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Lucas Glover (30-1, Bet365) — No player comes in hotter pin-seeking from the fairway riding in with consecutive T-3 finishes in the swing season. The question always remains the same with Glover: Can he make enough putts to challenge 30 under in this type of birdiefest? After gaining at least 3.6 strokes putting in two of his past three starts, I’ll say it’s at least possible.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: J.J. Spaun (28-1, FanDuel) — Spaun has top-five irons over the last 50 rounds among this field (via datagolf) and has some solid putting splits overall, as well. The irons are consistently positive lately, and his T-67 here a year ago was bogged down by some bad putting.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Lucas Glover (30-1, Bet365) — Lucas Glover has finished 13th-third-third in his last three starts. Glover’s ball-striking has been awesome this autumn. Currently ranked 63rd in FedEx Cup points, Lucas needs a strong week to solidify his spot in the 51-60 range and earn early season signature status. Lucas lamented on his Sirius XM radio show recently that after a two-win season in 2023, he missed the playoffs in 2024. Now refocused, he’s tearing up the fall and proving to everyone he’s a major champion still capable of contending on tour.
Watch the below video with Read The Line and SportsGrid for PGA professional Keith Stewart's full 2024 Shriners Children's Open betting anaylsis:
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Ben Griffin (28-1, FanDuel) — The fall season is a good time to stick with the guys who you’ve bet all year. I’ve been on Ben Griffin since his heartbreak at last year’s Sanderson Farms. He plays great on easy courses and his inaccuracy off the tee won’t hurt him here. I’m not missing out on the first Ben Griffin win.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Matt Kuchar (35-1, FanDuel) — Not much to love at the top of this board but I can get behind betting Kuch in Mexico. He’s been trending quite nicely with four top-14 finishes in his last six starts. Kuchar also finished runner-up in his debut here last year
Andy Lack, Inside Golf podcast: Ben Griffin (28-1, FanDuel) — Ben Griffin is coming off a 22nd-place finish at the Zozo Championship, and he now returns to a golf course where he finished 23rd at last year. Griffin ranks first in this field in easy scoring conditions, and he remains one of the best pure approach players in this entire field.
Past results: The panel finished the summer hot. Brandon Gdula picked up his first outright win of the year at the FedEx St. Jude, correctly predicting Hideki Matsuyama’s victory at 25-1. The week before that, Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers both nailed Aaron Rai’s win at the Wyndham at 35-1, giving them each three outright winners in 2024. Before that, it was Pat Mayo cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s gold medal at the Olympics (+400) for his third outright this year.
World Wide Technology Championship picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Charley Hoffman (70-1, Bet365) — We’ve seen a veteran like Kuchar win in Mexico, and I think Hoffman could be the next one. He’s always been such a great wedge player … the only question is whether his putter can hold up on the weekend.
Mayo: Joe Highsmith (55-1, BetMGM) — Hot start to the Fall Swing, with three T-16s in four starts. He’s gained on the field tee-to-green in 13 of 14 starts and has finally started to make some putts. After losing with the putter in 10 straight starts he’s now gained in four of six. Plus, his two best finishes in 2024 share identifiable traits with El Cardonal: a T-6 at Black Desert which also had enormous fairways and a T-6 in Puerto Rico with slow, Paspalum greens. Plus, he’s one of the only players not massively overpriced this week.
Gdula: Adam Svensson (50-1, FanDuel) — Svensson’s putting is a potential issue at a course where getting GIRs is pretty easy, but he putted to the field average a year ago on these paspalum greens, and he’s ultimately the field’s second-best tee-to-green player over the last 50 rounds.
Stewart: Austin Smotherman (150-1, FanDuel) — The strokes gained tee-to-green leader over the last 24 rounds in this field is Austin Smotherman. A beautiful ball-striker, Smotherman is ranked second in the field for proximity. Our winner will need to hit it close 36 times (or more!). Austin finished T-23 here last year and Paspalum is his best grass surface on the greens. Take a hot ball-striker and put him on a comfortable course and he can give us a triple-digit win.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (50-1, BetMGM) — I’m betting on Daniel Berger’s return to the winner’s circle, particularly at these odds. He has proven his game is nearly back to what it was at his peak, and I think this is a perfect setting for him to get it done.
Powers, Golf Digest: Patton Kizzire (70-1, FanDuel) — Kizzire cooled off a bit at the Shriners but he’s had success south of the border and this is as good of a number as you’re going to get in this field on a player who has actually won before.
Lack: Alex Smalley (80-1, BetRivers) — Alex Smalley always seems to raise his baseline on wide open resort courses, and he ranks first in this field in strokes-gained/total on Paspalum courses and first in SG/total on resort courses. While Smalley has never played El Cardonal before, he has already recorded top-five finishes at similar courses such as Vidanta Vallarta and Corales Punta Cana.
World Wide Technology Championship picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Doug Ghim (18-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Ghim’s back to scoring well, but these odds are a bit too short for me to recommend them.
Mayo: Cameron Young (20-1, BetMGM) — Maybe he’s found his irons after his extended absence since the middle of August, but a rusty player in a birdiefest isn’t something I want to back at deep odds.
Gdula: Max Greyserman (16-1, FanDuel) — I do like Greyserman, and if there’s a week to target a hot putter, it might be this one. Still, Greyserman’s putter is unsustainably good lately, and he’s had a lot of long putts fall lately. I’m banking on regression here.
Stewart: Maverick McNealy (28-1, FanDuel) — In five starts at the WWT Championship, Maverick McNealy has three top 15s, a T-26 and one missed cut. It just so happens that MC was last year when the PGA Tour changed the location to El Cardonal. McNealy has missed two of three cuts this fall and has not looked great. Mav is an elite player who should be contending each week and has yet to crack the top 15 this FedEx Cup Fall.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Matti Schmid (28-1, Bet365) — The young German is playing some great golf in the past couple of months, but these odds are a little crazy even with this field.
Powers, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (20-1, BetMGM) — I needed a break from Cameron Young when he was actually playing well and at a reasonable price. No way I can hop back on him now.
Lack: Cameron Young (20-1, BetMGM) — While Cameron Young certainly has the power to take advantage of El Cardonal off the tee, this will be his first start since the BMW Championship. Young was only able to muster a 59th-place finish at this golf course last year, and I would far prefer to deploy players with more competitive reps this Fall swing under their belt.
World Wide Technology Championship picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Harris English (-105) over Ben Griffin (DraftKings) — English is playing great, and he arrives back in Mexico where he’s a former winner. I don’t think Griffin is long enough to contend on this kind of layout.
Mayo: Harris English (-110) over Jhonattan Vegas (Coolbet.com) — Despite his back-to-back top 10s before Mexico, it’s somewhat worrisome English is doing it despite his irons. He’s been basically Denny McCarthying his way to the first page of the leaderboard. But this is a weak field and it’s not like English can’t get hot with this irons. He’s had plenty of success in Mexico previously with a win and two top fives in this event when it was held at Mayakoba, and did win at Kapalua another ocean-adjacent course with thick fairways and massive greens.
Gdula: Doug Ghim (-105) over Cameron Young (FanDuel) — Ghim actually has a substantial ball-striking edge on Young over the last six months, and neither are positive putters in that span. Ghim was T-15 here last year; Young was T-54.
Stewart: Max Greyserman (-125) over Doug Ghim (BetMGM) — Max Greyserman has three runner-up finishes in his last five starts. He’s the best putter in the field on a course where putting is the only real skill that gets tested. Doug Ghim has played well this fall, but the flatstick still fails him. Ghim has gained only one time with his putter in his last nine measured events. Over their last five starts, Max has a six-stroke advantage over Doug on the greens. That deficit is too much to cover in this tournament matchup.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (-120) over Michael Kim (DraftKings) — You read above why I like Berger, and this is also a play against Kim, who’s the best approach player from 225 yards on tour, and so this wedge-fest would be more up Berger’s alley than Kim’s.
Powers, Golf Digest: Lucas Glover (-110) over Beau Hossler (DraftKings) — Hossler has been hot of late but a lot of that has been due to strong chipping and putting. Glover, meanwhile, keeps wearing out the center of his clubface and just feels more trustworthy in this matchup.
Lack: Jhonattan Vegas (-110) over Keith Mitchell (DraftKings) — Both Jhonattan Vegas and Keith Mitchell hit the ball a long way off the tee and are great middle to long iron players. Vegas, however, is coming off an 11th-place finish at the Zozo Championship where he gained over two strokes in both ball-striking categories. Mitchell, on the other hand, has missed the cut in both of his last two starts.
Matchup Results from the Zozo Championship: Lack: 1 for 1 (Spaun (-130) over Power); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Cole (-115) over Moore); Powers: 1 for 1 (S.J. Im (+115) over Matsuyama); Mayo: 1 for 1 (K. Yu (+105) over K.H. Lee); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Vegas (+100) over Homa); Hennessey: 0 for 1; Caddie: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 26-12-2 (up 10.66 units); Gdula: 23-14-3 (up 6.11 units); Caddie: 23-16-0 (up 4.84 units); Hennessey: 19-15-6 (up 2.47 units); Powers: 17-18-4 (down 1.19 units); Mayo: 19-20-1 (down 1.43 units); Stewart: 16-22-2 (down 7.01 units)
World Wide Technology Championship picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: David Lipsky (+1200, DraftKings) — Lipsky’s been feast or famine this year, but coming off a runner-up finish in Napa, I feel that Lipsky has a good chance to back it up with another strong showing.
Mayo: Norman Xiong (+900, FanDuel) — Very quietly top five in the field in approach over his past two starts despite no top-25 finishes. He dropped seven strokes putting in Utah but for most of 2024 was consistently solid on the greens picking up at least 2.5 strokes putting in four of his last seven starts. Additionally, his best PGA Tour result of the year was on Paspalum in Puerto Rico (T-9).
Gdula: Austin Eckroat (+400, FanDuel) — Eckroat’s putter has been up-and-down, but he’s been able to gain strokes from approach play in 10 of his last 12 starts. With a T-23 here a year ago and good ball-striking form, Eckroat is a name I like this week.
Stewart: Harris English (+280, DraftKings) — In his last two starts, Harris English just gained an average of nine strokes per event in Utah and Las Vegas. As we head to another scoring fest with wider fairways and bigger greens, English has all the tools to contend again. Not many players in this field have a win, let alone four. I’ll take English and the 10 places.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Matt Kuchar (+300, DraftKings) — I’ll also be betting Kuchar to win this week, and I think the consistency he’s shown over the past few months lead to a good top-10 bet here.
Powers, Golf Digest: Brandon Wu (+1400, DraftKings) — Wu loves himself some Paspalum greens, as evidenced by his top-three finish at the Mexico Open in 2023. He’s worth a shot this week, having finished inside the top 13 in two of his last seven starts.
Lack: Matt Kuchar (+300, FanDuel) — Matt Kuchar almost won this event last year, and he continues to be one of the best resort course, Paspalum, and Fall swing performers in this entire field. The 46-year-old still has proven in 2024 that he still has plenty left in the tank, and I expect him to be right in the mix in Los Cabos once again.
Top-10 results from the Zozo Championship: Lack: 1 for 1 (Kurt Kitayama +360); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Si Woo Kim +280); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 13 for 40 (up 68.35 units); Gdula: 8 for 40 (down 4.3 units); Mayo: 7 for 40 (down 8.5 units); Powers: 7 for 40 (down 10.1 units); Stewart: 8 for 40 (down 10.42 units); Caddie: 7 for 39 (down 11.93 units); Lack: 8 for 40 (down 12.45 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports