Oakmont is the epitome of a U.S. Open course: The rough is very penal, and the green speeds are among the fastest you’ll ever see. U.S. Opens almost always favor elite ball-strikers, and the statistics show that it is more important than usual to have a great week from tee to green. Since shot-by-shot data for Oakmont is limited (the last U.S. Open there was in 2016), I’ve used Arccos Pro Insights to analyze the skills required to win the U.S. Open that will translate well to Oakmont.
Once tens of thousands of trees were removed between the early 1990s and 2015 (most planted in the 1960s), Oakmont’s original penal design was re-established, with the game’s nastiest, most notorious bunkers (founder-architect H.C. Fownes staked out bunkers whenever and where ever he saw a player hit an offline shot), deep drainage ditches and ankle-deep rough. Oakmont also has the game’s swiftest putting surfaces, which were showcased during the U.S. Open in 2016, despite early rains that slowed them down a bit. Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner made bunker modifications and expanded the greens throughout the course in 2023 in preparation for the 2025 U.S. Open. The USGA has already awarded Oakmont three additional Opens between 2033 and 2049, reinforcing its title as the Host of the Most U.S. Opens, ever.
Driving accuracy
Oakmont has very thick rough and narrow fairways, meaning accuracy off the tee will be rewarded more than usual. In the last four U.S. Opens, 70 percent of players’ strokes gained/off the tee was because of accuracy and just 30 percent was from distance. That’s the opposite of a typical tour event. Given Oakmont’s rough, I expect this trend to continue. That will bode well for Aaron Rai (above), Collin Morikawa and Russell Henley, who are the most accurate players this year, each gaining at least 1.5 shots per round off the tee because of their accuracy.
Approaches outside 125 yards
Over the last few years at the U.S. Open, where players rank in their approach play outside 125 yards is highly correlated with their overall success. When we analyze the top finishers in the last four U.S. Opens, around 70 percent of their strokes gained/total comes from either tee shots or approaches outside of 125 yards. Since Oakmont will present numerous lengthy approaches for players, especially on the par 3s, this trend should continue. Who, specifically, does that favor? Rory McIlroy (above), Ludvig Åberg and Scottie Scheffler have been the best so far this year at longer approaches.
Putting
Carmen Mandato
Oakmont’s greens will likely be the fastest players see all year, running at least 13 on the Stimpmeter. On top of that, they have large slopes that make speed control very tricky. The key when putting on greens this fast and severe is having exceptional distance control and a high make percentage inside six feet. I’ve analyzed the data of the players who have putted the best on tour over the last five years on greens that were quicker than 13 on the Stimpmeter and had medium to large slopes. The best players in the U.S. Open field that rank high on that list are Harris English, Max Greyserman (above) and Åberg, who all gained 0.7 shots per round or more on these greens.
Players I like at Oakmont
David Cannon
As you can see, there is a player whose name is popping up a lot in all these categories: Ludvig Åberg. We know the Swede is an outstanding player, but his skill set is perfectly made for a U.S. Open, especially one at Oakmont. Look for supreme ball-strikers—McIlroy, Scheffler, Schauffele—to also do well. Outside of the superstars, I like Greyserman and Rai to hold their own at Oakmont, as Greyserman is one of the best fast-green putters on tour and Rai is an extremely accurate player.
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EDOARDO MOLINARI, a former U.S. Amateur champion, Ryder Cupper and three-time winner on the DP World Tour, is Arccos Golf’s Chief Data Strategist. He also qualified to compete in this year's U.S. Open at Oakmont.