How you play a course's par 5s is probably the most important part of almost every round you play. This is true for both amateurs and pros. And it's especially true at TPC Sawgrass this week at the Players Championship.
The problem is that amateur golfers make a lot of mistakes on par-5s. Not just bad shots, either. Stupid, self-inflicted, strategy mistakes.
Par 5s present our best scoring opportunities, which is also why they're such a scorecard-killer when we make mistakes on them. Which is why in the latest episode of Golf Digest's Game Plan, we ask: Is there a perfect way to play Par 5s?
What's the strategy that pros use which can help the rest of us make more pars or birdies instead of bogeys and doubles?
Turns out, there isn't just one strategy pros use to play par 5s well. There are three. It comes down to making the right decision in three key scenarios that all golfers find themselves in. Let's break them down.
You can watch the latest episode of Golf Digest's Game Plan below (or right here):
Scenario 1: The 'Green Light' Scenario
This is the best scenario to be in. The 'green light' scenario is when you've hit a good drive on a pretty standard par-5. You're in a great position, so you can go for it or lay further back—basically whatever you want.
The Key Takeaway: You should basically always go for it in this situation.
When you look at the data, there's a strong, direct correlation on tour between going for the green and par-5 scoring average. The more aggressive pros are in going for the green, the better their scores will be.
The interesting thing is that this is alos true for shorter hitters, who may not be able to necessarily reach the green. They should still try to go for it. When you look at the data, golfers with slower ball speeds that try to go for the green average almost .2 strokes less than golfers that lay up more even when they fail. That means the more aggressive golfers score a full shot lower for every five par-5 holes they play.
Si Woo Kim is the perfect example of this. He's below tour average in driving distance, and below tour average in ball speed, but he's one of the most aggressive 'go for the green' golfers in history, and he's an elite par-5 player because of it.
The data show you don't even need to be that good at going for the green to get the benefits of it. Even golfers with a low success rate but choose to go for the green more, have a lower scoring average than golfers who lay up more. Simply trying to go for the green is the important strategy decision here, and the data proves that it works.
Scenario 2: The 'Yellow Light' Scenario
This is the most common scenario. It's when your drive is in play, but you can't reach the green in two shots. Maybe because you've hit your drive into an awkward spot, or maybe just because the hole is too long.
The Key Takeaway: Your best layup is the longest one you can possibly hit.
You'll often see amateurs in this situation do two things. They'll either pull a long club that they're comfortable hitting, like a 4 hybrid instead of a fairway wood, or they'll try to lay up to a yardage that they think they like. Maybe 120 yards or so, for example.
In a nutshell, there's just no evidence to support this whole 'comfortable yardage' strategy being a smart game plan. The best place to lay up is as close to the green as you can get it. Chasing it down there as far as you can isn't just the smart thing to do, it's the safe thing to do.
When you look at data from Arccos, the official game tracker of the PGA Tour, shared by Lou Stagner on the amount of strokes it takes to finish the hole from every yardage, it shows that for every handicap group, you decrease your chances of making a bogey or worse by around 3 percent for every 10 yards closer to the green you are.
So, let's say a 10 handicap hits a comfortable club to a comfortable distance of between 120 to 130 yards, from there they have a 46 percent chance of making a bogey or worse. But if they could sneak something down there just 30 yards further, to between 90 and 100 yards, their odds of making a bogey or worse drop to 37 percent.
If you find yourself in this 'yellow light' situation, one thing that lots of pros do is designate a kind of 'chase it down there' club at the top of their bag. A fairway wood or mini driver they can hit off the ground for longer par-5 approaches.
And if there's a hazard on one side of the hole, chasing it is still the right call. In that case, you'll often see pros simply pick a lane down the safe side of the hole, even if it's in the rough, and chase it down that lane.
Scenario 3: The 'Red Light' Scenario
This is when you're forced into laying up. This usually comes for two reasons.
The Key Takeaway: Take your medicine and lay up, even if you think there's a chance you could hit a hero shot.
The first reason is if you've hit your drives into the trees. Golf statistician Mark Broadie and DECADE Golf Founder and course strategy expert Scott Fawcett both crunched the numbers on this and agree on a 9/10 rule: Pick a recovery shot that is safe and easy enough that you could hit it out nine out of ten times. Chip it out, take your medicine and move on.
The other situation is when there are penalty hazards between you and the hole, which you're not sure if you can carry. Maybe you've got a forced carry, like water in front of the green, or maybe it's more of a bottleneck like how you see the fairway narrow between water and bunkers.
Scott Fawcett explains, if the bottleneck narrows to 30 yards or less, then treat it like a forced carry. Usually, these are the two situations where it's smarter to lay up short.
When it comes to deciding if you should try to carry these hazards, Lou Stagner developed a useful playing metric which measures how often a shot travels at least 90 percent of your intended distance.
For 10 handicaps, the 50-50 point comes just short of 200 yards. 50 percent of shots from that distance travel 90 percent of the distance, so 180 yards or more. The other 50% actually travel shorter than 180 yards. So if you have a forced carry or penalty hazard that requires at least 200 yards of carry, you're probably going to hit it in the water. You should lay up. Anything that requires a shorter carry than that, you're good to go. The odds are in your favor.
The Bottom Line
Being a good par-5 player means recognizing the scenario that you're in, and matching it with the correct strategy for it.
Most times, that means getting in play safely off the tee, then dialing up the aggression on the second shot. Going for the green whenever you can. Chasing something down there when you can't.
There'll be times when this will feel messy. That it's just cleaner to lay up to some arbitrary number you like. But trust the data, because when you do, you'll be inching the odds onto your side. And you'll start playing the most important holes in golf, a little better because of it.
Once again you can watch the latest episode of Game Plan right here: