How would the Tour Championship having played out using the new match-play format? We took a look

Starting last week, the Tour Championship officially entered its lame duck era. That probably sounds harsh, but it's not meant that way. Sunday’s action in the final round of the 2026 edition was plenty entertaining (would've been more entertaining if literally anyone could have challenged Scottie Scheffler, but what are you gonna do?), and next year could be the same. But the fact remains that we're killing time until the PGA Tour’s shiny new match-play model takes effect in 2028. That year, for the first time, the postseason will consist of a two-week match-play tournament. In Week 1, 32 players will be reduced to 16 via round-robin group play, World Cup-style, setting up the knockout round in Week 2. Here's what we know about that final format, from the tour:

The championship culminates with head-to-head match play, as all 16 participants will play four days of matches on a different venue than the one utilized the week prior. Players advance through the bracket based on their win-loss record, with the two players who remain undefeated after the first three days of competition battling on the final day to be crowned Tour Champion. Individual player records across all four days of competition will be used to determine the final championship standings.

Now, we don't know exactly what that will entail, but based on that language and some quick convos with a tour spokesperson, I'm pretty sure it's the exact format proposed here, starting at the 1:50 mark. (For anyone who wants to get really into the weeds, I think it's possible that instead of ranking players one through 16 based on match results, they'll just group in everyone who finishes with the same record, so everyone who is 1-3, for instance, will get the same payout … but I still think the actual matches are going to follow the format in that video.)

As a match-play superfan who doesn't want to wait until 2028, I decided that I would follow the action at East Lake this year and see what would have happened if they were playing the new format this year. Results are below, but first, some notes:

• There were 30 players in the Tour Championship, but I ignored numbers 17 through 30 on the FedEx Cup points list because they wouldn't have made the match-play final.

• How do you determine a match-play winner when everyone is playing stroke play? Simple—by comparing their scores hole-by-hole to see what would have happened if they were in the same group. For instance, if the theoretical match-up on Day 1 would have been (1) Scheffler vs. (16) Hideki Matsuyama, and in real life Scheffler made birdie on his first hole Thursday and Matsuyama made par, Scheffler goes 1 up in the fictional match. And you just do that for the entire match until you figure out who would have won.

• In the case of a tied match, since there's no data to represent extra holes, the top seed advances.

Is this a perfect replication of what’s in store in 2028? No, obviously not. You can't re-create the match-play dynamic from looking at stroke-play scores when the players aren't even grouped together, and if it had been match play, they might have played certain holes very differently based on what their opponent was doing. This is just for fun, using the only data we have.

Here were the opening round matches based on the FedEx Cup standings:

Scottie Scheffler (1) v. Hideki Matsuyama (16)
Sam Burns (8) v. Tommy Fleetwood (9)

Cameron Young (4) v. Jacob Bridgeman (13)
Si Woo Kim (5) v. Xander Schauffele (12)

Matt Fitzpatrick (2) v. Akshay Bhatia (15)
Collin Morikawa (7) v. Ludvig Aberg (10)

Wyndham Clark (3) v. Russell Henley (14)
Chris Gotterup (6) v. Rory McIlroy (11)

Let's see how it played out … if only in our imaginations.

THURSDAY/OPENING ROUND

Incredibly tight competition abounded on Day 1, with every match but one going at least to the 17th hole. The World No. 1, Scheffler, eked past Matsuyama, and two players, Burns and Morikawa, finishing tied in their matches and advanced based on the higher seed. But the biggest news on Day 1 is that Gotterup throttled McIlroy in the only match to end on 16. Even though all 16 players keep playing each day, you have to win all four matches in order to win the Tour Championship, so that loss marks the end of Rory's title hopes. Full results:

Scheffler (1) df. Matsuyama (16), 2 and 1
Burns (8) vs. Fleetwood (9), Tied (Burns advances on seed)
Bridgeman (13) df. Young (4), 1 up
Schauffele (12) df. Kim (5), 2 and 1
Bhatia (15) df. Fitzpatrick (2), 3 and 1
Morikawa (7) vs. Aberg (10), Tied (Morikawa advances on seed)
Clark (3) df. Henley (14), 2 and 1
Gotterup (6) df. McIlroy (11), 3 and 2

FRIDAY/SECOND ROUND

The best friends battle of Scheffler/Burns headlined the action in the de facto quarterfinal, and though Burns took a 3-up lead after four holes, Scheffler fought back to all square by the 10th hole. A pair of bogeys on 14 and 16 proved costly to Burns, giving Scottie the 2-up win after a birdie on 18. Three of the four matches in the top half went the distance, with Bridgeman, Morikawa and Gotterup maintaining their undefeated records and making the de facto semis. In the bottom half, we had the most lopsided result of the entire tournament as Young walloped Kim, 6 and 5. The week got worse for Rory as he lost his second match, falling to Henley 2 and 1. I have to imagine that in the fantasy world where this played out, he made several negative remarks about the format in his post-match presser, possibly going so far as to say he didn't even want to play on the weekend.

Results between 1-0 players:

Scheffler df. Burns, 2 up
Bridgeman df. Schauffele, 2 and 1
Morikawa df. Bhatia, 1 up
Gotterup df. Clark, 2 up

Results between 0-1 players:

Fleetwood v. Matsuyama, Tied (Fleetwood advances on seed)
Young df. Kim, 6 and 5
Fitzpatrick df. Aberg, 1 up
Henley df. McIlroy, 2 and 1

SATURDAY/THIRD ROUND

In news that will thrill and relieve PGA Tour officials, Scheffler won his third straight match, ensuring that the World No. 1 will make the championship on Sunday, thus avoiding a nightmare scenario in Year 1. It was a dramatic fight, though, with Bridgeman making birdie to square the match on 18 … only to lose immediately because he's the lower seed. What a shame the tour didn't make them play extra holes so I could have a cleaner experiment! In the final, Scheffler will meet Gotterup, who held steady on the front nine and benefited from two late Morikawa bogeys to win 3 and 2. In the two battles of winless players, Rory came through with his first victory, beating Aberg, 2 and 1, which means the ignominious battle to avoid 0-4 will come down to the Swede and Matsuyama:

De facto semis, both players 2-0:

Scheffler vs. Bridgeman, Tied (Scheffler advances on seed)
Gotterup df. Morikawa, 3 and 2

Both players 1-1, won Thursday, lost Friday:

Burns v. Schauffele, Tied (Burns advances by seed
Clark df. Bhatia, 3 and 2

Both players 1-1, lost Thursday, won Friday:

Young v. Fleetwood, Tied (Young advances by seed)
Henley df. Fitzpatrick, 2 and 1

Both players 0-2:

Kim df. Matsuyama, 4 and 3
McIlroy df. Aberg, 2 and 1

SUNDAY/FINAL ROUND

Ladies and gentlemen, just like in real life, your 2026 Fictional Match Play Tour Champion is Scottie Scheffler! (They even played in the same group on Sunday, so you could follow along like it was the real thing.) Scottie went 2 up after four holes, but Gotterup fought back to tie the match, and Scheffler held just a 1-up lead at the turn. Scheffler birdies on 10 and 13 put the squeeze on Gotterup, though, and facing the unbelievable pressure of winning the first ever match-play championship, Gotterup made bogey on 15 and 16 to hand Scottie the title on a silver platter.

Elsewhere, Morikawa took third with a win over Bridgeman, who was probably still pissed he didn't get to play extra holes against Scottie on Saturday; Rory lost again (when asked if he would even play in the match-play championship next year, he would only give a slight smile/grimace and say "no comment”); and Aberg finished the nightmare weekend and a year of rough Sundays by losing to Matsuyama, 2 and 1, and claiming the first 0-4 record in tournament history.

15th place match: Matsuyama (16) df. Aberg (10), 2 and 1

13th place match: Kim (5) df. McIlroy (11), 2 and 1

11th place match: Fleetwood (9) df. Fitzpatrick (2), 3 and 1

9th place match: Henley (14) df. Young (4), 1 up

7th place match: Schauffele (12) df. Bhatia (15), 2 and 1

5th place match: Burns (8) df. Clark (3), 3 and 2

3rd place match: Morikawa (7) df. Bridgeman (13), 2 and 1

Championship match: Scheffler (1) df. Gotterup (6), 3 and 2

In summary, it was a thrilling introduction to the match-play championship, and even though all of it was fake, it produced a deserving winner and whets the appetite for the real thing. 2028 can't come soon enough.